We’re just two weeks away from the beginning of the 2017 season, so it’s a fitting time to continue my 2017 ladder predictions. Today, positions six through four are up for grabs.
In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Let me start by saying that the reports of any potential Geelong collapse this year are greatly exaggerated. They’re comfortably going to make the finals, and could very well prove me wrong and finish even higher than sixth.
They’ve got a lot of excellent players, but there seems to be a gulf between their very best players and everyone else. Sure, they’re not horrendous, but there is a lack of talent in some areas of the ground. Their forward line, especially.
The Cats are still a very good side, but do have some glaring weaknesses.
Most influential new player?
The Cats had a disappointing trade season, losing four players and only gaining two in return. Josh Caddy, Shane Kersten, Billie Smedts and Nathan Vardy all departed, which leaves some gaps in their forward line.
It was disappointing, too, that the Cats failed to get Richmond’s Brett Deledio, and sold themselves out of this year’s first round at the draft in order to get Zach Tuohy,wWhich is important, because he’s their most important new player, so the pressure is on to perform.
Predicted surprise win of the season?
First of all, let’s start with their first game. March 26, in Western Australia, versus the Dockers. Technically, it’s Geelong versus Freo, but honestly, it’s Nat Fyfe versus Patrick Dangerfield.
I was lucky enough to be at the duo’s last showdown, back in 2015 at the Adelaide Oval, when Dangerfield was still a Crow. They’re both good – seriously good – so it’s going to be one hell of a battle to watch.
Geelong also face arch-rival Hawthorn in Rounds 4 and 17, and after some stunning battles last year, the Cats would be aiming to conquer their rivals twice more this season.
Worst potential loss of the season?
They wouldn’t want to lose to Carlton, or Collingwood, or St Kilda again. All three bettered the Cats at some stage last year, and put the pressure on the Cats to perform better. Thankfully they did, and that led them to a prelim.
This year, though, they’re going face serious challenges from the latter two, while depending on how Carlton is performing in the latter stages of the season, Geelong might want to be cautious against the Blues on a Saturday night in July.
Best and fairest winner?
Not at all surprisingly, it was Dangerfield who took out the ‘Carji’ Greeves Medal last year. And he’s probably going to do it again. But for the sake of the article, I’ll nominate – sigh – Paddy’s number one lieutenant, Joel Selwood, as the only other potential winner.
In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Ah, the Eagles. From a grand final berth in 2015, to a devastating finals loss at the hands of the Bulldogs in 2016. Where in the mix do they fit this year?
Let’s look at the positives, first: they’ve got an awesome forward line, led by the prolific Josh J Kennedy. They’ve got a relatively handy midfield (the addition of Sam Mitchell only strengthens this, to say the least), and a decent backline. The thing that is most worrisome about the Eagles list is the fact that Nic Naitanui is gone for a large portion for possibly the whole season with a serious injury. Number two ruckman Scott Lycett has also been affected by injury, so the additions of Drew Petrie and Nathan Vardy were clearly important last year.
They’re going to be an excellent team, but the ruck situation is one hell of a question mark over the West Aussie club.
Most influential new player?
I don’t even think I have to mention this dude’s name. But I will, mainly because it honestly hasn’t sunk in that he’s an Eagle this year: Sam Mitchell.
He’s far and away going to be the Eagles’ most important new player in 2017. Enough said. Sure, they also got Vardy from Geelong and Petrie from North, but did I mention they got Sam Mitchell for pick 88. What the hell?
Surprise win of the season?
Obviously, wins over Fremantle in the derbies are the games that West Coast fans would love to earn. And, admittedly, it was far too easy for them to get just that last year – and a few weekends ago in the JLT Series, it appears. Not this year, though.
Fremantle will be back and will once again make the derbies proper contests, so I’m not sure West Coast will be taking them too lightly this year. Like the Crows below, wins over other top-eight teams will also be integral yet obvious aims.
Worst potential loss of the season?
West Coast’s track record against the Hawks in the past year-and-a-bit hasn’t been great. I support the complete opposite team and even I shudder when I think about that grand final performance in 2015.
So their Round 5 performance against the Hawks is their only chance (barring finals) for the Eagles to get one back against the Victorian team, provided they don’t get the stage fright that seems to affect them.
I’d also be wary of Greater Western Sydney if I were the Eagles, because the expansion club will probably be pissed that their game last year fell out of their hands due to some Nic Nat magic.
Best and fairest winner?
Luke Shuey got the John Worsfold Medal last year, yet the good thing about the Eagles is that there are actually quite a few players who could gain said honours. But it’ll likely be star recruit Mitchell who takes it out.
On another note, this has got to be the only case of the best and fairest award being named after a coach who’s still active.
In a nutshell, what’s going to happen?
Judging where to put Adelaide has been one of the most cut-throat decisions I’ve made. Do they belong above or below the Eagles – in my eyes one of their closest competitors – or are they worthy top four competitors?
In the end, they’ve gone just above the Eagles, and thus just into the top four on this ladder.
Adelaide’s 2016 was definitely great, but their trades felt decisively mediocre. They tried and failed to get Carlton’s Bryce Gibbs, they traded out Jarryd Lyons for unders, and got no new players through the door.
But none of that matters. This is a club, not to be sentimental, that has gone through some of the worst few years in its history, and shrugged it off to emerge as genuine contenders this year.
Losing Dangerfield was no matter for the club last year, as their midfield stood up. They’ve got an excellent forward line, and their defence is solid.
This club has proven that it can stand up in big games, and they’re going to be excellent this year. Can they make it all the way? They absolutely have the potential. If injuries strike though, all that I’ve written could become redundant.
Most influential new player?
The Crows had a reasonable draft night, gaining Jordon Gallucci and Myles Polholke, who from all reports are decent midfielders with talent. But the Crows aren’t a club where it is easy to break into the best 22, so the draftees might be biding their time in the SANFL.
Surprise win of the season?
It won’t exactly be a surprise if they win, but Showdowns against Port are always cracking contests, and the Crows will be gunning hard.
Winning against teams at the top – the Western Bulldogs, the NSW squads, West Coast and Hawthorn – will also be very important aims, because to be the best, you’ve got to beat the best.
Worst potential loss of the season?
They couldn’t lose to Geelong again, could they?
Unfortunately for the Crows, they lost both their games against the Paddy Dangerfield Squad (ahem, Geelong) last year. They’ve got two chances in 2017 – one at Simmonds, one at Adelaide Oval – to get back on top. Cracking contests, they’re going to be.
They’ll also want to make sure North Melbourne don’t get revenge for the two big Crows wins over them in the last stage of the season last year – but, honestly, they don’t have much to worry about.
Best and fairest winner?
Rory Sloane got the Malcolm Blight medal last year – again, no surprise there – but it’ll be Eddie Betts who gets it this year. I mean, the bloke deserves all the allocates he gets, and his famous pocket should be named after him. Adelaide Oval, get on it.
My ladder, up to this point, is as follows:
4) Adelaide Crows
5) West Coast Eagles
6) Geelong
7) Hawthorn
8) St Kilda
9) Fremantle Dockers
10) Melbourne
11) Port Adelaide
12) Collingwood
13) Essendon
14) Richmond
15) North Melbourne
16) Carlton
17) Gold Coast Suns
18) Brisbane Lions
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