Super Saturday is one of the marquee race meetings of the Melbourne autumn, bringing with it the Australian Cup and the Newmarket Handicap.
Both races are worth well over a million dollars, but have attracted disappointing fields, at least in terms of quantity of runners. The Newmarket can accept a 24-horse field, but has attracted just over half of that, with 13. The Australian Cup is at 66 per cent capacity, with 12 runners instead of the maximum 18.
The Sydney carnival has always been where the spotlight shines most brightly at this time of year, but these great Flemington races are losing some of their lustre.
The Australian Cup, at WFA over 2000m, has brought together an even field, with not much between these horses.
There was evidence of this in the main lead-up race, the Peter Young Stakes, also held under WFA conditions, but over 1800m at Caulfield. Less than one and a half lengths covered the first six home there, and even the next three home after that where only a length or two away from the main bunch.
It was a field of 11 in the Peter Young, and the first 10 home are all here.
Stratum Star won that race after a dream run, and he’s now won his last three starts, in a late career resurgence after he was treading water for a while. He’s tough and honest, and it won’t be through lack of effort if he doesn’t win.
Humidor and Jameka were probably the two runs of the race, and they head the market here accordingly.
It was a muddling affair to a large extent, with horses more or less finishing roughly according to their settling position, in the aforementioned blanket finish.
Humidor was one horse to make an impression coming from the back half of the field, just failing to reel in Stratum Star, and is putting the writing on the wall that a win will be forthcoming.
Jameka had a terrible time of it in the run, wide and not settling, before having to push forward up the hill to take up a position. It was a sign of her quality that she was able to run as close as she did, beaten less than a length into fourth.
The United States never looked like winning, while still finishing a close third even though he was first-up. He usually runs better second up, and is already Group 1 WFA winner over this trip, so there is enough there to recommend him.
Exospheric was an eye-catcher first-up after his Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup campaign in the spring. He’ll love every bit of the extra 200m he receives here, but should be a bigger threat again in the BMW.
Real Love has finished fifth or sixth at her last five runs, and that appears to be her level now. She’s not really a Group 1 horse at this time of year, but gets too much weight in anything else. Tally is honest, and is always a place chance in this grade, but it’s hard to see him winning.
The enigmatic Tom Melbourne will have supporters again, as he always does. He’s been trained to settle back and run on this preparation, which is a mistake. When you’ve got a bold front-runner, that’s how they should race. It gives the horse his best chance, and makes for exciting and true racing.
Given the Freedman brothers also have Exospheric in the race, who will settle back, it would make sense to release the shackles on Tom Melbourne and send him forward. The stable then gets two genuine chances at taking out the race, one from either end of the field.
The old battle-axe Mourinho hasn’t come up this prep, and Awesome Rock hasn’t been at his best either, but we know he grows a leg at this track and trip. A protest was wrongfully upheld against him in this race last year, but he got his just rewards winning the Mackinnon here in Cup week.
There are two runners in the Australia Cup field that aren’t coming through the Peter Young Stakes.
Ecuador has two Group 1 WFA placings to his credit already this campaign, during the Caulfield Orr / Futurity swing. Any form that close behind Black Heart Bart should hold him in good stead here.
Boom Time has been winning across the grades through summer, but appears up against it here. That said, you have to respect the Hayes yard at the moment, and they did get Extra Zero to run a nose second in this a few years ago at 100-1.
We should see a similar running order to the Peter Young, but the presence of Ecuador will hopefully put some more speed in the race. If they decide to let go on Tom Melbourne, then we could be in for a real treat.
Selections: 1.Jameka 2.Humidor 3.The United States 4.Ecuador
There is nothing like being on the rail at Flemington for the thundering hooves of a massive Newmarket Handicap field, but unfortunately we only have the 13 runners this time around.
Spieth heads the betting as the most exciting sprint prospect in the land. The four-year-old has only had 10 starts, but has already twice run desperately unlucky second’s in Group 1 WFA races down the Flemington straight.
His trainer, Bruce Heys, can certainly carry on like a pork chop, but there’s no doubt Spieth would be a worthy winner if he can unleash that devastating sprint. Given how luckless the horse was in the Darley Classic and the Lightning Stakes a fortnight ago, barrier one will be giving connections chills.
Terravista won the Lightning, which was nothing more than his due after a storied career. He should probably have won that race the year before too. His best does appear reserved for the Flemington straight these days, but carrying top weight won’t be easy.
Star Turn was third and Illustrious Lad was fifth in the Lightning, in what was a classic driving finish, with nothing between them all.
Star Turn meets Spieth at the same weights from that event, while Illustrious Lad receives 2.5kgs off both of them. Star Turn puts himself up front to be beaten, and it takes gun horses to get past him. Illustrious Lad just keeps getting better and better, and the Gelagotis team have a marvellous record of getting a good horse to peak at carnival time.
The Oakleigh Plate is the other Group 1 lead-up to the Newmarket, with Sheidel and Extreme Choice coming from it after running first and third respectively.
Sheidel did it her way, from the front, and nothing could get past her. Extreme Choice went to the back half of the field from a middle barrier, and ran out of ground when trying to make up the deficit. The three-year-old meets the bonny mare 2kgs better for that clash.
Most of the rough horses have claims in one way or another.
The best of these might be Tivaci, who ran two Group 1 placings at a mile last campaign, and resumed with a superb win over 1000m down the straight against some smart ones. He’s a must for all multiples at the $21 mark. Flemington, 1200m and his weight are three ticks in his favour.
The Quarterback appears in with a reasonable weight of 55kg given he won this race last year, and has subsequently won at Group 2 level down the straight carrying 57kg.
Voodoo Lad is a classic Darren Weir sprinter-miler, ever honest, but Newmarket Handicaps simply don’t get won first-up. Counterattack is hard to catch, but wasn’t bad in the Lightning, will be better suited at 1200m, and his second to Illustrious Lad on Derby Day ties him in.
Super Cash is proving herself a classy sprinting mare – she beat Group 1 winners I Am A Star and Chautauqua first-up in the Rubiton, and her form around Sheidel in the spring puts her around the mark here.
Redkirk Warrior and Inspector look to be making up the numbers. The former is a good horse though, and will find his right race this prep. The latter is well outgraded.
The scene is set for a quality affair. Will Spieth finally capture his Group 1? Can the three-year-olds land their first Group 1 blow against the older horses this year? Will the handicap conditions spring a surprise result?
Selections: 1.Spieth 2.Star Turn 3.Illustrious Lad 4.Tivaci
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