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See the Bombers fly up, to finals and beyond

Expert
9th March, 2017
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Essendon take on the Suns in a clash of two struggling sides. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Expert
9th March, 2017
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In 2004 the Essendon Bombers defeated the Melbourne Demons by five points in front of 60,000 people at the MCG. They were knocked out of the finals by Geelong the next week, and have not won another finals match in the 12 AFL seasons since.

The drought has continued far longer than it ought to for any team and in 2017, the Bombers are ready to defy the odds, play finals and quite possibly win one for the first time in more than a decade.

This is a point of view that flys in the face of recent form – the Dons have finished in the lower portion of the ladder two years running, last year admittedly with the help of some significant external circumstances.

However, it’s worth noting that in 2014 the Bombers were a finals team, and might well have broken their drought if it wasn’t for a memorable second-half comeback from North Melbourne, beginning with three goals from Ben Brown and ending with two quick ones for Drew Petrie (sorry Bombers fans, I’m never not going to mention that one).

That was a year in which they were coached by Mark Thompson and it was the only year between Kevin Sheedy leaving the club at the end of 2007 and John Worsfold arriving eight years later that the Bombers had a quality coach.

Worsfold is an excellent coach and one of my personal favourites. His flame-out at the West Coast Eagles in 2013 was hard to watch, but coming back into the coaching game he has shown that he is by no means done yet.

What he achieved last year with a team that had maybe half a dozen AFL standard players in it was remarkable. The Bombers got beat, a lot, but they were still tough to play against and never dropped their heads.

The talent Worsfold will have at his disposal in 2017 compared to the season past is an exponential increase – not only do the Bombers have ten senior players back, but they’ve also added a No.1 draft pick, and all of their youth is one year more experienced.

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I found their best 22 to be one of the hardest to put together this season. They’re going to have to make hard choices along the way between veterans who are returning and young kids who are ready to step up.

However, when they get the balance right they will have a team studded with stars both future and present along every line, with more depth than most, led by a coach who is hungry for success.

In the forward line Joe Daniher, who is underrated, can make a partnership with Cale Hooker, who has only spent limited time as a forward but could easily kick 50-60 goals this year. There’s a nice mix of medium and small types to work around them.

The backline, on the other hand has an All-Australian calibre defender in Michael Hurley as the lynchpin, and decent enough talent around him. Andrew McGrath will fit in here well.

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The midfield then has a combination of elite young talent like Darcy Parish and Zach Merrett, coupled with plenty of veteran hands led by Dyson Heppell who is at the beginning of his best years as a footballer.

Really the only weakness is in the ruck department – Matthew Leuenberger is their best option here and they’ll be hoping he remains fit and performs well. He’s not a standout ruckman of the competition but there are worse big blokes getting a game.

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They could use an extra Cale Hooker too. But who couldn’t?

It’s pretty common in the AFL to see teams have a bit of success at a time when a wave of new young talent combines with an older veteran core – this can often be short-lived, but if the list is managed well thereafter it can be the pre-cursor to future success.

A good example would be Hawthorn’s premiership success in 2008, their dip down the ladder in the years that followed, and then their return to the podium in 2013-2015. That early success was just nice timing between the youth and the old guard, then the youth became the old guard and took them there again.

To be honest it’s about where I thought the Western Bulldogs were at before September last year – and maybe it still is.

That’s an extreme example because that early burst rarely takes you as far as a flag – more likely it’s about two years of playing finals, hopefully winning one or two, then bobbing back down to later rise again.

That’s what Essendon can do this year – pop up, play finals for a little bit, and then if they’re smart enough to hold course, the young talent they have coming through now will lead them into flag contention early next decade.

There’s plenty of reasons they might not. Maybe Worsfold’s tactics won’t be enough to win and win often in today’s game. Maybe the old and the new won’t mesh as well as they could. Maybe there’s a few more eggs to break before we get an omelette.

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The way I see it though, the Dons have everything they need to become a winning team this year.

Improving youth, mature veterans and no shortage of talent among either group. Elite talls at either end of the ground, and plenty of midfield depth. A club culture that showed just how rich and deeply it runs last year and a coach who knows how to take teams to September.

We’re yet to see if it will all come together, but sometimes in life and football, the pieces of the puzzle can just fall neatly into place.

For Essendon in 2017, I’m tipping they will.

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