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2017 NFL pre-draft primer: AFC

Roar Rookie
15th March, 2017
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Derek Carr of the Las Vegas Raiders. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
Roar Rookie
15th March, 2017
2

March heralds the beginning of the silly season in the NFL. Just like the Boxing Day sales, teams are given a catalogue (i.e. permission to talk to agents) 48 hours before the sale commences.

Once midday of the new year kicks in (March 9 in the NFL calender), all the “wink wink, nudge nudge” free agency deals are rapidly exchanged, and a team’s fan-base are left delusionally reassured or temporarily (or permanently) dejected, depending on whether the player is coming or going.

Like sport in Australia, teams in the NFL are bound by a salary cap, ensuring that the great march towards regression-to-the-mean plays out as a team priorities which free agents to keep.

Now that the first few days are behind us, I share my thoughts on how half of the NFL have fared in the cash carnage, and guess at how they will perform in 2017.

Today: the AFC.

AFC East

Patriots: We might as well just jump in the deep and and get it over and done with: the Pats are favourites again for another title. Is Stephon Gilmore equivalent to Logan Ryan at corner? Probably. Is he $65m/5 with $40m guaranteed (!) equivalent? Big maybe. Does this have the added bonus of wrecking the Bills’ secondary by stealing their best corner?

Absolutely. Is it fair to give Brady an *actual* outside receiver in Brandin Cooks, who compares as a DeSean Jackson-esque roof-lifter? Is it 2016 all over again with a pick-swap and trade for tight end Dwayne Allen? Ditto, Kony Ealy?

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Do other teams care that they are doing deals with the devil? Will ‘Angry Gronk’ come back from another curtailed season on a mission to spike the AFC into submission? Too many questions with answers that won’t be well-liked outside of New England. Their only big questions unanswered are whether don’ta Hightower will come back at their price, and what they will do with Jimmy Garoppolo now that their first draft pick is at 72.

The road to the AFC Championship still runs through Massachusetts. Bill Belichick is no doubt employing PR teams to create his next three-word slogan for the inevitable Superbowl LII victory party.

“Trade me, bro” is polling well at the moment. I wouldn’t blame you for taking the over on 13.5 wins. They will lose once in the season, but not by much, and probably in the last few weeks when they are playing to stay healthy.

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady

Jets: Oh man, the Jets. The Jets are like that guy from high school who you all moved into a sharehouse with, but he was the last to get his life together and is now in his early 30’s with teenager roommates who shake their head at him and vow never to turn out like that (hey, he pays the rent, right?)

Their roster looks like one of those early morning TV stories about a car that drove into the front of a house.

Darelle Revis – cut. Brandon Marshall – cut. Nick Mangold – cut. Additions – none. Salary cap – $24m in cap space, roster still has more holes than a golf tournament (they have $31m tied up in defensive ends alone!) Still have lots of big contracts for mediocre players on their books. Have gone full-Browns, but for the fact that by cutting players, they won’t even get the compensatory picks next year.

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Is their day 1 quarterback even on the roster? Who will their hypothetical starting quarterback throw to? You know it’s bad when you have been linked to Jay Cutler. Will be there or thereabouts for #1 pick next year. Will probably get robbed in trading out of #6 in this year’s draft too.

A total dumpster fire. 3-13 only when viewed through rose (or green) coloured glasses.

Bills: Now that the Rex Ryan era is over, we can look forward to… well, probably more of the same in directionless free agency signings. The Tyrod Taylor situation was a hilarious case of a front office finally accepting what everyone else had told them for three months. A situation where Tyrod Taylor is your starting quarterback is a hell of a lot more secure than the situation where Tyrod Taylor is *not* your starting quarterback.

More hilarious, the decision to surround a mobile quarterback who thrives on big-arm plays with new wide rec-… fullbacks. Yeah, plural. FullbackS.

Pat DiMarco and Mike Tolbert in the backfield will work on the maybe three occasions they Bills up with first and goal this upcoming season if they can’t get Sammy Watkins healthy. They lost the aforementioned Gilmore to the Patriots, and replaced him with Micah Hyde – a DB who is ok/good at a lot of things, but not great at any. Sums up the Bills, to be honest. They will run and run and run and run and try something crazy on fourth-and-1 and fail. 6-10. Blah.

Dolphins: Finally, a fairly quiet week for Miami in the wake of free-agency panic the last few years. No blockbuster contracts, no salary cap destruction, just a quiet trade for Julius Thomas (a TE who can’t block), the latest “weapon” for Ryan Tannehill (a quarterback who can’t be trusted to throw more than 20 times a game). They gave away Branden Albert to the Jaguars in a separate trade, but I guess it’s time to find out if Laremy Tunsil can indeed play the position he was drafted in the first round for.

Underrated big-play merchant Kenny Stills got a big deal, which might spell the end of DeVante Parker next year. Expect the 2017/2018/2019 game plan to consist of Jay Ajayi being launched 30 times a game into the the mammoth defensive lines of the AFC East, and to finally break down in 2020 just as his rookie contract expires. 10-6.

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AFC North

Browns: Unlike the Jets, the Browns are like that awkward guy from Romy and Michele’s High School Reunion who doesn’t fit in with the cool kids, is constantly mocked and ridiculed, then suddenly turns up 20 years later in a helicopter and sporting bulk cash (don’t ask me why I picked that reference).

We wondered what they would do with all that cap space, and now we know. Kevin Zeitler, highest paid guard in the league. New centre in JC Tretter. Big extension for Joel Bitonio. Joe Thomas is now sitting out at left tackle perhaps finally able to trust… well, three of the bodies to his right for the moment. Concrete has been poured into the foundations of an O-line.

Kenny Britt goes where Terrelle Pryor once did (but probably can’t run a wildcat). They still have five picks in the top 65 for this year’s draft. Funnily, the team based in Foxborough don’t have any. Said team based in Foxborough do have a shiny backup quarterback though… Watch. This. Space.

Cleveland will do something very un-Cleveland and win games this year (yes, plural). Hell, they may even be competitive in the AFC North, which would have sounded crazy twelve months ago. Looking forward, there is plenty to be optimistic about. They still have a lot of cap space. Still have a lot of draft picks. Still have a lot of potential (to screw things up if they don’t take Myles “Knock Knock, Mr Dalton” Garrett).

Will still go 4-12, albeit with some optimistic losses if they draft Garrett. 2-14 if they take a quarterback #1.

(NB: Aaaaaaaaaaand I’m not even touching the Brock Lobster trade! I don’t have enough words in this column for the crazy, insane, beautiful, downright ridiculous things I want to say about it. Another ($16m) draft pick to Cleveland. The sheer genius/idiocy of them then trying to flip him for another pick makes my heart melt. I’m hoping one draft soon they will own ten picks in the first two rounds and just take defensive linemen to prove how they are either the smartest or dumbest guys in the room.)

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Ravens: Disclosure, I am a Ravens fan. I’m also pessimistic on their outlook for next season. For a team who have spoken of their intention to run the ball more, losing arguably the league’s best right tackle (Ricky Wagner) and fullback (Kyle Juszczyk) in free agency and signing a 32 year-old scatback coming off an ACL tear (Danny Woodhead) doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. Tony Jefferson is a nice addition to pair with Eric Weddle but $36m/4 with one year as a starter and zero Pro Bowls is a bit rich for my liking.

The roster is still old, and Brandon Williams’ big new contract means he is the only member of the 2013 draft class left on the roster. Tells you everything you need to know about their recent draft success. They need corners and a pass rush like they’re going out of fashion. Is “The wizard of Oz” losing his touch? Another year of disappointing 3am Monday mornings, “*expletive* Joe Flacco” waking up my household, and Justin Tucker 50-yard field goals in 17-15 losses beckons for the author. 8-8 or thereabouts.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco. AP Photo/Gail Burton

Steelers: Quiet as a fox. Most of their work was done prior to free-agency with the mammoth extension to Antonio Brown. The indefatigable James Harrison is back for another ride. Next order of business will be shoring up LeVeon Bell on a long-term deal.

They still have $19m in cap space – expect them to pluck a veteran or two in the second wave of free agency. Will probably be in the playoff mix again as AFC North champs. Explosive offense capable of putting up 40+ any given week. Can their defence can get the stops when the stops need getting? Big Ben’s window is closing fast. Is there one more monster trade for defensive help left? 11-5, 5-1 in AFC North (Baltimore at home will find a way!)

ben-roethlisberger-pittsburgh-steelers-nfl-2017

Bengals: A few seasons ago, the Bengals had a roster that would go as far as Andy Dalton could take them. I think they have reached that destination and are on the downhill run. They lost big in free agency, with left tackle Andrew Whitworth and left guard Kevin Zeitler taking the money in LA and Cleveland respectively.

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Dre Kirkpatrick re-signed, but the secondary is one of many issues. Their backfield situation is cloudy with Jeremy Hill on the nose, Giovani Bernard coming back from an ACL tear, and Rex Burkhead a free agent. Domata Peko has joined the exodus on the defensive side of the ball. They still have stars in Geno Atkins and AJ Green, but will remained marooned 0-7 in the postseason for a while yet. They will be picking in the top ten next year. Maybe even before Cleveland. Dalton is going to cop a beating from his blindside (see above re: Garrett, M, future #1 pick). 4-12.

AFC South

Titans: The Titans are my pick for the surprise packet of 2017. They currently have that perfect blend of cap space, talent on rookie contracts, and high-end draft picks. Marcus Mariota was playing out of his mind until he sustained a late-season fibula fracture – their 47-25 beat-down of Green Bay stands out.

DeMarco Murray looks more like his 2014 Dallas Windows XP version, rather than his 2015 Philadelphia Windows Vista version. Derrick Henry is waiting if/when he goes down. Jack Conklin had an outstanding rookie season at right tackle, rightfully receiving First-team All-Pro honours.

Left tackle Taylor Lewan was selected to the Pro Bowl. They have a solid front seven on defence, signed Logan Ryan from the Patriots to improve their secondary, and *still* have $56m (!) in cap space (their biggest cap hit for the year? Brian Orakpo, $9.45 million). And the small matter of picks five and 18 in the upcoming draft. They are a team on the up, and if they hit on their picks this year (or trade down from five to stockpile more if a team gets quarterback trigger-happy), they will be set for a good run into the postseason. Can they go all the way? Probably not. Can they win the AFC South? Absolutely. 11-5.

Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota

Jaguars: Oh, the Jags. They remind me of Andrew Symonds pre-2003 World Cup where you were teased year after year and thought “when this clicks, it’s going to be awesome” Well when it does, it’s going to be awesome. Not if, when.

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Their signings of Calais Campbell and AJ Bouye strengthened a defence that now looks ready to wreck havoc on all and sundry before it. If Myles Jack steps up this year, and Dante Fowler hits his strides to become part of the D-line rotation, they have the potential to keep them in games until the inevitable deep fourth quarter Blake Bortles pick/sack-fumble crushes them. Previously, this crushing phenomena was happening much earlier, around the second or third quarter.

All jokes aside, this is a huge year for Bortles. Jacksonville Emperor-in-Chief Tom Coughlin owes him no favours, and the organisation is yet to pick up his fifth year option. They look awfully like the Bengals of a few years ago, in that they have a roster that will take them as far as Bortles will allow.

Given that they are picking in the top five for the sixth time in six years, and top ten for the tenth time in ten… I mean, their luck has to change at some point, right? They picked Branden Albert from the Dolphins to play at left tackle, but he’s a short-term option at best.

One wonders if they should have made a run at some better (or more) offensive linemen. Outcomes range from 2-14 to 10-6 depending on whether Good Blake Bortles or Bad Blake Bortles turns up. I’m not holding my breath for Good Blake Bortles.

Colts: I’m going to put it out there: as things stand, the Colts are the worst team in the AFC South. Best quarterback in the division by far, and if the NFL was being re-drafted today, would be in the conversation for #1 pick. But overall team? Trash. Andrew Luck is cruelly seeing his prime wasted by a dysfunctional front-office that are among the worst in the league for talent evaluation.

Outside of TY Hilton and Vontae Davis, they have no other quality players on their roster. Their offense last year survived on a diet of the ageless wonder Frank Gore, recently-resigned tight end surprise Jack Doyle, and the weekly highlight reel of cornerbacks who were routinely burned by Hilton – all of which are unsustainable. That aside, Luck is doing his best Peyton Manning impersonation circa 2002-2010 in carrying a team on his shoulders.

This year, the front office is (wisely, shockingly) not paying premium dollars for second-tier talent. They have made somewhat-astute signings in John Simon (world’s least exciting name), Barkevious Mingo (world’s most exciting name) and Jabaal Sheard (world’s least-most exciting name) in an attempt to manufacture a pass rush. Dwayne Allen has been flipped to the Patriot Revolution. Do they have anyone in-house who can step up on defence? This threatens to be another lost season for Luck. 6-10.

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Andrew Luck

Texans: Man oh man, would the “Get out of Brock free” trade have happened in any other era? For the cost of a low second round pick, they have engineered one of the great salary cap escapes and, despite the implicit admission of a huge, huge mistake in free agency last year, now are arguably in the pole position to move all their chips in the middle.

They’ll be putting all those chips on trying to finally give Bill O’Brien something he has been waiting four long, long years for: a competent quarterback. If they could only combine Tony Romo’s talent with Brock Osweiler’s health. Outside of quarterback, this roster is jacked. Jadeveon Clowney got healthy and got awesome in the later half of last season.

Whitney Mercilus was… well, merciless last season (the puns sometimes write themselves). There’s also that other fella who missed the year with a back problem, Watt’s his name…? (I’ll see myself out). They did lose AJ Bouye to Jacksonville but that would break up their current corner rotation of Joseph, Jackson, and Johnson (Triple J! Try the veal…)

JJ Watt of the Houston Texans

On a serious note, the Texans have an underrated (albeit vulnerable) offensive line, a criminally underused running back still-waiting-for-the-breakout-season Lamar Miller, and turned DeAndre Hopkins who is an all-world talent capable of making crazy, superhuman catches into a frustrated mess by season’s end.

If Romo joins the fold, stays healthy and plays reasonably (and the Texans get lucky), this could make for the Tony Romo Fairytale of 2018. If not, well… there’s always their backup quarterback. Tom. Savage. 11-5 with a healthy Romo; 6-10 if the wheels fall off (given last year, probably too talented to lose more than that).

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AFC West

Broncos: The other half of the ‘Where in the World is Tony Romo’ equation.

Carrying an equally-talented roster to the Texans, they still harbour Super Bowl aspirations one year removed from dragging Peyton Manning kicking and screaming on the back of one of the most ferocious defences fielded in recent memory.

Minor players in free agency so far aside from signing Ronald Leary and declining Russell Okung’s option, which we’ll call about even (unless Leary can convince Romo to come with him – advantage, John Elway). The rest of the offensive line is mediocre at best.

Defensively, the magnitude of Malik Jackson’s absence was felt last season, and this year’s replacements in Domata Peko and Zach Kerr do little to warrant any optimism.

At quarterback, is Paxton Lynch capable of beating out Trevor Siemian (who?) Without a run game, or potentially Romo, the Broncos are going to win or lose a lot of games 17-14 or thereabouts.

They’re going to hope to be on the 17 side of many of those in order to make the postseason. Salary-cap wise, five players – Von Miller, Demaryius Thomas, Aqib Talib, Emmanuel Sanders, and Chris Harris Jr – account for more than a third (!) of their salary cap. Not a lot of margin for error. 7-9 without Romo; still one of the toughest road trips out there, however.

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Chiefs: First the good: they have bona-fide gamebreakers in Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, the later who has *finally* started living up to the hype of being “the next Gronkowski”. They made the postseason as the #2 seed in the AFC. Their defence is ready to welcome back Justin Houston, who missed most of the season with injury. Kansas City fans still host the best tailgating in the league.

Now the not-so-good: Jamaal Charles’ injury/release leaves a huge hole in their offensive game plan, and the Ware/West timeshare has not been near that level. The other huge hole is Alex Smith, who is doing his best Andy Dalton ball-and-chain impersonation. Then again, I guess that’s what we’ve come to expect from KC: steady if unspectacular quarterback play and reliance on skill players to be skilful. don’tari Poe is going to leave a massive hole in the middle of their defensive line when he signs elsewhere.

I can’t say I’m hugely sold on the Chiefs this year.

Then again I never am. 6-10, will probably leave me red-faced at season’s end.

Chargers: Off the field, an absolute trainwreck. Have treated the fans in San Diego with nothing short of contempt, and have now moved up the I-5 to play in the second largest metropolitan market in the US… in a 30,000-seat soccer stadium. Poor Philip Rivers has seen pretty much his entire career ruined by the front office.

No wonder Eli Manning didn’t want to play there. On the field, they were unfortunate to finish last year 4-12, and they have cause for optimism. Joey Bosa looked a stud in the final half of the year.

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Melvin Gordon started to show some flashes of what made him a first round pick in 2015. Keenan Allen should hopefully return after a horror run of injuries. Franchising Melvin Ingram was a necessary move in a market salivating for pass-rushers.

I’m prepared to call Russell Okung their talisman for the season; $53m/4 with $25m guaranteed is a *lot* of money for an injury-prone albeit talented left tackle, especially when Denver essentially opted-out of a near-identical $48m/4 contract.

He will need to both stay healthy and play better than last year to break even on the investment. 8-8.

Raiders: After throwing the chequebook at anything that ran/caught/blocked/moved over the last few seasons, things have been relatively quiet in Raider Nation. No big names in, lost a few minor pieces in DJ Hayden, Malcolm Smith and Menelick Watson, but otherwise are probably saving their money for complementary pieces / the inevitable outlay that will be required for the ‘Big 3’ of Derek Carr, Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper.

Still have a vacancy at running back with Latavius Murray testing the market, but given the lukewarm reception for Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles et al, they probably won’t be in a hurry to sign anyone.

You can almost see them targeting Joe Mixon in the second round… (controversial). Still a few holes on the defensive side of the ball, and Aldon Smith is proving as reliable as a Queensland Rail timetable.

Probably the pick to win the division, but fair to say the AFC West is the most competitive of the four, they outperformed all expectations last year, and the NFL is notorious for regression. All the talk of a Las Vegas move is also unhelpful. How do long-suffering Oakland fans put up with this? 10-6. How do long-suffering Oakland fans put up with this? 10-6.

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