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AFL's reigning premiers to miss top eight

Gamblor new author
Roar Rookie
21st March, 2017
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The Dogs had a dream 2016. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Gamblor new author
Roar Rookie
21st March, 2017
5
1179 Reads

Since the AFL went to an eight-team finals system in 2000, only once has the reigning premiers missed the finals the next season. In 2017, it will occur for the second time.

The first time was the Hawks in ’09, after shocking the football world the year prior by knocking off a vintage Geelong team.

The Western Bulldogs pulled off a fairytale win last year, after finishing seventh in the regular season, then they got white hot through September and broke the club’s 62-year flag drought.

In 2016 they were the hunters. In 2017 they become the hunted.

Factors against them this year include:

Draw
The first eight rounds include games against Collingwood, Sydney, Greater Western Sydney and West Coast, as well as two trips to Perth. I have them 3-5. They could be as bad as 2-6.

Along with Hawthorn, Geelong and Melbourne they have eight 6-day breaks, the most in the competition.

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Depth
The midfield depth will be tested with Koby Stevens and Nathan Hrovat traded, Mitch Wallis not expected back to mid-season, and young bull Roarke Smith doing an ACL in the pre-season. Losing Joel Hamling to the Dockers will also test an already thin back line.

The ruck stocks are depleted with the influential Jordan Roughead to miss the first month and his backup Tom Campbell out for at least the opening fortnight, leaving Tom Boyd as their starting ruckman.

The Dogs’ depth is a myth and will be shown up this season.

Rule changes
The AFL’s banning of third-man-up at stoppages will have an adverse affect on the Dogs’ gameplan, as Marcus Bontempelli was a great exponent of it, ranked third in the league last season at 63 (per Champion Data).

As a team, the Dogs had 24.8 per cent of their hitouts come from third-man-up, ranking fourth.

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