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West Coast couldn’t capitalise on premiership favouritism in 2016, with a meek showing in the elimination final casting doubt on their big-game mettle.
The Eagles have added some healthy experience in the offseason, but is that enough to get them back over the hump?
Let’s have a look at the list changes made in the off-season.
Additions: Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn), Nathan Vardy (West Coast), Drew Petrie (North Melbourne), Daniel Venables, Josh Rotham, Willie Rioli, Jake Waterman, Thomas Gorter, Tarir Bayok, Francis Watson (draft)
Subtractions: Xavier Ellis (retired), Mitch Brown, Jamie Bennell, Kane Lucas, Patrick McGinnity, Brant Colledge, Corey Adamson, Alec Waterman (delisted)
What happened last year?
It was an underwhelming start to 2016, with comfortable home wins over also-rans Brisbane, Fremantle, Richmond and Collingwood somewhat offset by uncompetitive losses to fellow contenders Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong.
After seemingly being at the crossroads with a 7-5 record after Round 12, the Eagles finished the year off strong, with nine wins in their last ten games to finish with a very healthy record of 16-6.
Whispers of a premiership challenge from outside the top four were promptly silenced however, as the season ended with a woeful 47-point elimination final loss at home to the Bulldogs.
What’s changed?
The Eagles made one of the most stunning trades in modern AFL history in the offseason, landing Hawthorn legend Sam Mitchell for pocket change. While it would be unwise to rely on his 34-year-old body to be the difference-maker, his football brain and leadership bring plenty.
Drew Petrie and Nathan Vardy are much-needed reinforcements for a crippled ruck department, but otherwise the club will field a very similar team to last year.
What needs to happen in 2017?
West Coast will need to navigate the early part of the season without their best two ruckmen in Nic Naitanui and Scott Lycett.
While the recruited Vardy and Petrie will form a competent ruck department with Jonathan Giles, the club will likely need to get by without the dominant hit-out numbers they enjoyed last season.
It’s going to be up to the rest of the Eagles’ engine room to pick up the slack, and work rate is somewhere the stats say they dropped off a little in 2016.
West Coast simply didn’t get their hands on the ball nearly as much last year as they did the season before. After enjoying strong differentials in 2015 of 13 more disposals a game than their opponents and ten more contested possessions, these numbers collapsed to 24 fewer disposals, and dead level in contested possessions.
Their slight advantage in uncontested ball eroded into a negative 22 differential – better than only Fremantle and Brisbane.
Given West Coast’s disposal efficiency was just outside the bottom four, this turnaround made the feats of 2015 almost impossible to repeat.
Mitchell will take some pressure off the established midfield trio of Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff and Luke Shuey, but the Eagles desperately need to cultivate a genuine second tier of midfielders if they’re to take the next step.
Players like Jack Redden, Chris Masten, Dom Sheed, Mark Hutchings and Liam Duggan need to get themselves off the passengers list in 2017.
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The verdict
The Eagles have one of the best sides on paper, and on their day can match it with the best.
After a meteoric rise in 2015, perhaps we should have expected some degree of plateauing in 2016, but in any case this appears to be a team with a little too much to work on in one season to get to the very top.
Prediction: fifth