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I can’t believe how quickly we’ve reached the end of the spring split. It feels like I was so recently saying, “it’s too early to make calls on the standings,” and now here we are with just one week of play left.
Personally, it seems like my faves are letting me down, and Team Liquid – for whom I had such high hopes – lost every game this weekend.
I’m just going to go straight to the standings.
1. Team SoloMid: 14-2 in matches; 28-13 in games
2. Cloud9: 12-4; 27-13
3. Phoenix1: 11-5; 26-12
4. Counter Logic Gaming: 9-7; 20-19
5. Team Dignitas: 8-8; 20-20
6. FlyQuest: 7-9; 18-18
6. Immortals: 7-9; 20-21
8. Echo Fox: 5-11; 13-24
9. Team Liquid: 4-12; 14-25
10. Team Envy: 3-13; 13-26
Here’s what we know for sure:
Team SoloMid have locked in a playoff bye
Cloud9 and Phoenix1 have locked in playoffs
Echo Fox, Team Liquid, and Team Envy cannot get into playoffs
Everything besides these are subject to change based on how this weekend goes. Here are some calls and games to look forward to.
Call: Cloud9 will take the second bye
Now, I do think Phoenix1 have looked like the better team over the last few weeks. At this point in time, they probably deserve to have the bye. At 9am AEDT on Sunday, these two teams will meet each other, and I really think Phoenix1 will take the match, as they did the first time these teams met.
The difficulty lies in the other game that each team has this weekend. Cloud9 will be playing Team Dignitas on Saturday at 9am, and although Dignitas are on a hot streak, Cloud9 should still win that match. It won’t be easy, and I’m sure Cloud9 are aware that their first round bye more-or-less rides on them winning this game, but I do think they will be able to.
Phoenix1’s other game, however, is going to be against Team SoloMid, who have been an unstoppable force since week four. Phoenix1 have the capacity to win the game, and I can see it being a very close fight… however I still think Team SoloMid will have the edge.
Phoenix1 need either one win and a Cloud9 loss, or to win both their games in order to take the bye. With the games this weekend, that’s a taller ask than the alternative, which should sneak Cloud9 into second place.
Call: Team Liquid and Team Envy will finish in 9th and 10th place
This is a very safe call, admittedly. Echo Fox are currently one match up on Team Liquid, and two up on Team Envy. I really wanted to find a way to put Echo Fox in the relegation zone, but they play Team Envy themselves at 9am on Sunday.
The reality is that the very bottom of the table is pretty solidly in place, with a lot of fortuitous events needing to fall into place to get one of these teams out of the promotion tournament. I want to look at it briefly here though, so we all really know what upsets we actually have a chance of seeing.
Unless Team Envy pull out something really impressive (and in fairness, they did take one game off Team SoloMid last weekend), they at least are stuck facing a challenger team in the coming weeks. Team Liquid have a slightly better chance; assuming Echo Fox win their game against Team Envy, then Team Liquid would need to win both of their matches, one against Team SoloMid (6am Sunday), and the other against FlyQuest (9am Monday).
The latter is within reach. FlyQuest are still just not delivering results. Both these teams have burned me recently, but it almost doesn’t matter who wins that series when it comes to the bottom of the table, because if it was going to be hard for Phoenix1 to win against Team SoloMid, it will be nearly impossible for Team Liquid to do so.
Game: FlyQuest vs Echo Fox
Although they have pretty different game records, these two teams are only a couple spots away from one another. Echo Fox cannot make playoffs, but they can absolutely play spoiler, and this game at midday on Saturday is going to be their best opportunity.
FlyQuest are in a precarious position. They could finish anywhere from fourth through eighth, after being among the best at the start of the split. They and their fellow sixth-place holder Immortals have a weekend of middling teams ahead of them, which means FlyQuest want to pick up as many wins as they can this weekend to stay in playoff contention.
While Echo Fox won’t be in the playoffs, they can keep themselves out of the promotion tournament. With Team Liquid and Team Envy’s schedule, they should be safe, but they should also be taking precautions to ensure it. They have a good shot, too; when they play well, they look great, and they won this matchup last time the teams met.
This game could truly go either way, and while it isn’t make-or-break for either team on it’s own, both teams could really do with this one under their belt. We will have to wait until match day to see which version of each of these teams turns up to play. Both teams are 0-4 in the last two weeks. I feel obliged to make a call, so I’m giving it to FlyQuest; only narrowly, just because I think Hai’s shotcalling can make FlyQuest overrun Echo Fox.
Game: Immortals vs CounterLogic Gaming
Immortals and CounterLogic Gaming are another two teams within two matches of each other on the ladder and will be playing at 6am on Sunday. A win this game for Immortals would put them one step to stealing the 6th place and definitively lock Echo Fox out of the playoffs (assuming that doesn’t happen during Saturday’s games), while a win for CounterLogic Gaming would guarantee them a place in playoffs.
Immortals need to stay even in wins with FlyQuest to keep their playoff dreams alive*. If they go even in record, they also have an even head-to-head record, so it would come down to match percentage. They really will want to get themselves off to the best start to the weekend that they can, which will include winning this match.
CounterLogic Gaming are seriously unlikely to lose their playoff spot; they only need to win one match this weekend, and their second game will be against Team Envy. Not to mention that they didn’t drop a single game last week against similarly ranked teams. I wouldn’t call this one a must-win for CounterLogic Gaming, but I can’t think they’d turn up their nose at padding their scoreline and hopefully keeping well away from either Cloud9 or Phoenix1 in the first round of playoffs.
CounterLogic Gaming are coming off a hot streak, where Immortals are coming out much more mildly. CounterLogic Gaming have the edge in this series, and I think they can win it so long as they play with their heads in the game.
*Unless Echo Fox steamroll everyone, but honestly, that’s not very likely.
—
I’m not ready for this season to be over, but I am looking forward to the promotion tournament and the playoffs. I’ll leave you with my prediction for the standings at the end of the split:
1. Team SoloMid: 16-2; 32-14
2. Cloud9: 13-5; 29-16
3. Phoenix1: 12-6; 29-14
4. Counter Logic Gaming: 11-7; 24-20
5. FlyQuest: 9-9; 22-20 (52% win rate)
6. Team Dignitas: 9-9; 23-22 (51% win rate)
7. Immortals: 7-11; 21-25
8. Echo Fox: 6-13; 16-27
9. Team Liquid: 4-14; 15-29
10. Team Envy: 3-15; 14-30
Am I spot on? Am I giving FlyQuest too much credit, or Echo Fox too little? What will the standings look like by the time this is all said and done?