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Saturday Sure Things: BMW Day preview

Rosehill Gardens Racecourse. (AAP Image/Craig Golding)
Roar Guru
23rd March, 2017
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The Golden Slipper Carnival at Rosehill wraps up this Saturday with a cracking program, headlined by a Group 1 double-header, the BMW (2400m) and the Vinery Stud (2000m). Here is my look at the bumper card.

Race One (12:20): The Schweppervescene 1400m
Astoria was very sharp in winning on debut at Warwick Farm on a similar bog track. He can handle the step up here. Villa Carlotta was strong behind Frolic and She Will Reign, and that is obviously the best two-year-old form going. Merchant Navy was a sharp debut winner at Pakenham and I respect the fact the stable have sent him straight to Sydney.

But I am with Astoria, to beat Villa Carlotta, Merchant Navy and Smooth Landing.

Race Two (13:00): E-Group Security Star Kingdom Stakes 1200m
Jungle Edge was one of the better bets on the program after an outstanding run last week in the Galaxy. The gelding drops big time in depth here, looks the leader and should take a power of beating – I’m glad I got $15 all in earlier this week!

Impending was good in the Canterbury Stakes and Sort After is the other speed horse engaged here and should get a lovely run.

Jungle Edge clearly on top, ahead of Impending, Sort After and Danish Twist.

Race Three (13:35): Daily Telegraph Neville Selwood Stakes 2000m
Astronomos for me. Spanked them on a similar track in the Randwick Stakes and he was only second up there. Zasorceress was unbelievable in the Matron at Flemington against the bias. She has been well backed already and easy to see why. The next best bet is Ambience, who is on the quick back up and gets conditions to suit.

Astronomos over Zasorceress, Ambience and Floodlight.

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Race Four (14:15): Rydges Parramatta Doncaster Prelude 1500m
Spectroscope made a big impression during his Australian debut a fortnight back, resulting in a win over 1350m. He is very promising and should only come on. Rudy is a noted swimmer and he should have trotted in fresh but poor tactics cost him. That said, he ran well in this race last year.

Marenostro is another that goes well on wet ground and has trialled up really well.

I’ve landed with Spectroscope to beat Rudy, Marenostro and New Tipperary.

Race Five (14:50): Power Distribution Australia Tulloch Stakes 2000m
This is not really a race I want to get involved in. Hollywood Mo represents the value to my eye – he was alright last week in the Guineas and actually beat Prized Icon home, and that horse is $3.50 compared to $19 for the other. Crazy.

Honeywine hasn’t done a great deal in two runs back, but a recent trial was encouraging and his spring efforts would keep him in this. Likewise with Wine Bush, who should be cherry ripe fitness wise.

Hollywood Mo each way for me, to beat Honeywine, Wine Bush and Jon Snow.

Race Six (15:30): The BMW 2400m
If all things are equal and he is 100 per cent, Our Ivanhowe should win. He had an outstanding Ranvet win last week on a similar track ratings wise. He will lap it up again and the extra 400 metres is only beneficial.

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Exospheric would clearly be on top if we got a firm track. His two runs this time in have been brilliant, but he’s just unknown on this ground. Grand Marshal is the rank outsider, but he is a swimmer and is out to a trip now, plus he ran well in this race last year.

Clearly siding with Our Ivanhowe ahead of Exospheric, Grand Marshal and Lasqueti Spirit.

Race Seven (16:10): Vinery Stud Stakes 2000m
$9 all in for Harlow Gold was too good to pass up. She’s a Classy filly who has been excellent in two runs back from a spell. 2000m third up is perfect, and if she handles the ground okay, she will look the winner at some stage.

I’m prepared to forgive La Bella Diosa for her Coolmore flop. She was second up off the Surround win on the bottomless Randwick surface, and is ready to bounce back hard third up. Moqueen is another that is third up and could be a big improver back to her own age/sex and up in trip. She is silly odds for a quality filly.

Harlow Gold on top, to beat La Bella Diosa, Moqueen and Foxplay.

Race Eight (16:50): Ascend Sales Trophies Emancipation Stakes 1500m
Dixie Blossoms for me. She walked them up and sprinted to win the Guy Walter, but then nothing went right in the Coolmore. She has drawn awkwardly again, but hopefully jockey Jason Collett can get cover. If he does, she wins.

Zanbagh was very good against the tempo in the Coolmore. She is going very well, just needs the breaks to go her way. Happy Hannah was down to run in a 1900m race last week but instead runs in a 1500m race. There are unknowns a plenty, but Team Snowden know what they are doing.

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For me it is Dixie Blossoms, Zanbagh, Happy Hannah and Alaskan Rose.

Race Nine (17:30): EFM Logistics Handicap (90) 1400m
I’ll be interested to see what Ancient History does here. He was very good in his Australian debut on Kembla Grange Classic Day, fighting on strongly in defeat. If he can cover here, with the upside he has, he will prove hard to beat.

Handfast is becoming a bit of a non-winner, but this is the easiest race he has contested in a long time. Bring Luck is a swimmer and his first-up effort behind Spectroscope was a beauty.

Ancient History in the get out, ahead of Handfast, Bring Luck and the non-winner Voilier.

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