This season’s MVP race has been one of the toughest to call in recent memory. In reality, there are four candidates who in any other year would be a certainty for the NBA’s most prestigious award.
Russell Westbrook is on pace to be the first player in over 50 years to average a triple-double over the course of an entire season.
James Harden has put up similarly gaudy numbers, on a team that have been one of the NBA’s pleasant surprises.
LeBron James is putting up career highs in rebounds and assists, which is amazing when you consider his outstanding 14-year career.
Finally, Kawhi Leonard has been an absolute monster on both ends of the floor, developing into a premier scorer to go with his standout defence.
Voters certainly have a difficult decision to make and whatever the outcome there will be indignation from some.
The Cavaliers’ struggles throughout March have probably taken James out of the running. LeBron is the best player in the league, but all too often since the All Star break, The King has looked more interested in getting ready for the playoffs.
While I’m sure LeBron would love a fifth MVP to move level with Michael Jordan, making a deep playoff run is infinitely more important.
The voters’ tendency to reward offensive excellence over standout defence also means that Kawhi Leonard will in all likelihood miss out too. If you look at the last 15 years of MVP winners, the only true two-way players to win are LeBron, Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan, whereas offensive powerhouses such as Steph Curry, Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitzki have dominated recent years.
This leaves us with two remaining contenders, and boy is it difficult to separate the two.
Westbrook is having one of the greatest statistical seasons in the history of the league – the records just keep on tumbling.
He has the highest scoring triple-double ever, the first triple-double without missing a shot or free throw, and he is leading the league in scoring. By any measure, that is a truly outstanding season.
Harden is not far behind on the stats front, leading the league in assists, is second behind Westbrook in scoring, and has put up two 50-point triple-doubles of his own, including a simply insane 53 point, 16 rebound, 17 assist effort against the New York Knicks.
On a purely statistical basis, it is impossible to separate them. Westbrook’s extra rebounds and points are cancelled out by Harden’s assists and slightly better scoring efficiency.
The argument that Westbrook should win simply because he is going to achieve something that hasn’t been achieved in 50 years is also flawed. If you look at the amount of triple-doubles achieved in each of the last three seasons, the numbers have swollen massively. In 2014-15 we had just 44, the season after 75, and this year we have had a mind-boggling 108, before the season has even finished.
While still an impressive feat, achieving a triple-double isn’t the white whale it used to be. The pace of the NBA has increased massively, meaning more possessions per game and more chances to score, assist and rebound at a higher rate.
This is not to demean Westbrook’s season, but merely to put it in its proper context. I would not be surprised to see many more players over the coming years threaten to average the fabled triple-double.
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So how do you split them? It comes down to two things: winning and watchability, and in both those categories, Harden has the edge.
He is leading a team without another superstar to a 50-win season and a top seed in the uber-competitive Western Conference. While Westbrook has dragged his Thunder squad into the playoffs, there is little suggestion his team can make it past the first round. This fact should matter in the final reckoning.
The other thing to remember is that basketball should be fun – it is okay to prefer a player simply because you like watching them more – and Harden has been the most fun to watch this season. Watching him bisect defences in Mike D’Antoni’s high-paced offence has been a joy and will always trump Westbrook’s more physical play.
The real MVP of the league is James Harden.
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