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After a weekend full of clutch plays, steals, and long series, the NA LCS will look exactly the same next split as it did in spring.
eUnited didn’t have a great showing, returning to the Challenger series in two matches, with only two games won. Gold Coin United came out much stronger, missing out on ascending to the LCS by just one game… twice. They even won their first match against Team Envy handily, but lost 2-3 both against Team Liquid, and in the rematch of the first game.
I feel for the guys, especially Santorin, but their straight losses to the two bottom LCS teams shows that they are just not currently LCS calibre. There are rumours that the North American region may move to a more traditional-sport-style franchise arrangement in 2018, which puts the challenger teams’ future in an uncertain spot, so for now we will have to wait and see what Riot will do with the league going forward.
On the more positive note, we are now staring straight into playoffs, where the six best teams of spring will face off for glory and championship points. This weekend, in the quarter-finals, sixth placed Dignitas will play third seed Phoenix1, while FlyQuest (5th) will face off against CounterLogic Gaming, who finished the season in fourth.
Of the two winners in the quarters, the lower seed will play first-placed Team SoloMid in the semis, while the higher will play second seed Cloud9. The winner of the playoffs will not only be sent to the Mid-Season Invitational tournament in Brazil, they will also be awarded 90 championship points, which will go a long way in helping the team reach the World Championships at the end of the summer split.
While there are somewhat clear predictions for each best-of-five match, there are still very strong arguments for all teams. Personally, I would be very surprised if either of the matches were a clean sweep, with a reasonable chance of both series going to a fifth game.
Team Dignitas versus Phoenix1: 5AM AEST on Sunday
Of the two matches, this is likely to be the closer one, despite the end of season rankings indicating otherwise. Team Dignitas looked like a new team in the second half of the split, and while Phoenix1 we’re looking strong coming into week nine, their showing against Cloud9 and Team SoloMid was uninspiring.
Regardless of their recent games, Phoenix1 still has a much better chance of winning this match up. Although Team Dignitas had some early leads, even in their losses, they have a tendency to struggle in the mid-to-late game and in team fights.
Phoenix1 also have the clearly superior bot lane duo; Arrow is probably the best AD Carry in the league right now, and despite the late-season pickup, Stunt has pulled together some great stats including highest kill participation in the league, highest first blood participation in the league, and eighth highest KDA in the league
That said, though… Dignitas do have quite a few things going for them. Although their lives will be made so much easier if Phoenix1 run Inori, with Chaser and Ssumday they should be more than capable of running rings around Zig and either Jungler.
They’ve also pulled themselves out of the relegation danger zone into playoffs, and the whole team will be especially determined to continue to prove themselves. As their communication has improved, they are coming to their matches extremely well prepared. I say it every week, but Cop has made such a huge difference to this team, and he will be an incredibly useful resource going into playoffs.
Both teams have plenty of strong players. If Keane shows up for Team Dignitas, Phoenix1 will have a hard time keeping him and Ssumday down regardless of their jungler, but having Meteos start over Inori should make the match-up drastically easier. I do think Phoenix1 can win this series, but it will not be the walk in the park they may have been hoping for.
FlyQuest versus CounterLogic Gaming: 5AM on Monday
I want to find a way for FlyQuest to win this, but short of showing their old Cloud9 colours and pulling off a miracle run, I really don’t see them making it through to the semis. Their early season got them far enough ahead of their opponents to get into playoffs, but their strategy has become stale, and teams have worked out how to play into them. CounterLogic Gaming, by comparison, have not only been looking strong, they won this same match-up 2-0 back in week eight.
Although they’ve not had the fantastic level of season we’ve seen in the past, CounterLogic Gaming have played solidly through the split. Although their unchanged roster probably didn’t do quite as much for them as they hoped, the pre-built synergy still went quite a long way. Stixxay and Aphromoo have kept growing as a duo, and despite doubts about him in the past, Huhi has really stepped up this split.
FlyQuest, by comparison, don’t play so much on synergy as they play on Hai’s micromanagement, and decent individual players. It goes to show just how important teamwork is, that overall mediocre players (I love them dearly, but none of them are in the top percentage of their roles) can come this far off the back of average shot calling.
Above everything else, CounterLogic Gaming need to make sure that they are not complacent coming into this match. I don’t want to jinx it for them (much) but they don’t tilt in the way they used to, so even if FlyQuest can take a game, CounterLogic Gaming are a team that should be more than able to take ban out the strategy and win the next time round.
For their part, any wins for FlyQuest will most likely come off very specific, pre-prepared team compositions. One of the players – Altec I think, although I can’t for the life of me find the clip – said that they will go back to meta picks for playoffs, but I am honestly skeptical of that approach working for them on its own.
I would like to see FlyQuest bring at least three unique strategies to this series so that they can work around any targeted bans and keep CounterLogic Gaming on their toes. They more than likely have been scrimming Cloud9 (since, due to seeding, they cannot meet one another until finals) who should be great at finding holes in any less viable strategies.
I’ve got arguments for days about how FlyQuest can come out of this with a win, but the reality is I don’t actually think that they will. Their win conditions are pretty darn narrow, and CounterLogic Gaming are the stronger team coming out of the regular season. FlyQuest will very likely take one game (I don’t really like the term “cheesing” and the connotations that go with it, though realistically that’s how the any win will probably look), but not the whole series.
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Safe predictions, I know – the two higher seeded teams will proceed to the semifinals! Wow. The thing is, the seeding at the end of this split is a pretty spot on indicator of how good each team is looking, so it’s really not a stretch to say that the standings are indicative of how the post-season will play out.
Over Easter then, we should have two less straightforward matches to watch: a well prepared rematch between Phoenix1 and Cloud9, and the classic Team SoloMid versus CounterLogic Gaming. Are you expecting the same? Or will one of the lower seeds step up this weekend?