- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Winless Collingwood’s final appearance on the Friday night stage for the year sees them travel to face a winless Sydney Swans. It’s obvious, but worth stating: the loser will be 0-3 and, well behind in the race for finals football.
The biggest challenge for Collingwood, and their coaching staff and administration, and in many ways their fans, coming into the season was that their first six games were to be broadcast on national TV. A Friday-Thursday-Friday-Sunday-Anzac Day-Sunday run that would guarantee the Pies would be one of the lead football news items in March and April.
Winning record would not matter to their notoriety: 6-0 and the hype train would be rolling, 0-6 and the hangmen would be unleashed, 3-3 and critical questions would flood the tabloids like a torrential downpour.
Here we are. An 0-2 start was always in prospect for Collingwood. A game against the reigning premiers always looked challenging, while only Richmond has rivalled the Pies for early season uncertainty in recent years.
The usual suspects have rent-a-quoted their way to a week chock full of black and white flights of fancy. If you believe the market, which has the Sydney Swans as a 3-1 favourite, an 0-3 record is assured.
This Sydney team has been materially weakened by injury, though. The most successful home-and-away team of the past four seasons has got off to a slow start, sitting 0-2 for the first time since 2014. Of course, we all know what happened next: Sydney won 19 of their next 22 games on their way to a grand final.
The Swans are missing a bunch of their key cogs, most critically Isaac Heeney, Dane Rampe, and now Kurt Tippett after an early game injury last weekend. As a result, Sydney have turned to their seemingly endless supply of good young players.
The youth movement continues this week, with the Swans dropping veteran Jeremy Laidler and 72 gamer Harry Cunningham and bringing in first gamer Jordan Dawson and Jordan Foote, who will play his third game. Callum Sinclair plays his first game of the year owing to the loss of Tippett.
However the continued absence of Heeney is the headline issue for the Swans, given he was set to move into a full-time midfield position just as the Swans lost one of their key pieces in Tom Mitchell. While Zak Jones is proving to be a solid player, Heeney is on another level all together. Keiran Jack has looked a step off the pace to start the season, while George Hewett is more in the mould of a depth player. Jake Lloyd has been the most solid of the non-newbies, averaging 28.5 touches in the first two rounds.
Collingwood remain without their new midfield recruit Daniel Wells, and have once again tweaked their line up. Travis Varcoe and Levi Greenwood are in, with James Aish and Jarryd Blair the omissions. It means Jamie Elliott, who reportedly trained strongly during the week as he recovers from an ankle injury, spends a round in the VFL before a presumptive return next week.
Neither side is a picture of health. But with the resources they have available, the midfield match up looks delightful.
Both sides will be rocking a three-headed monster that would put the rest of the competition to shame. The home team has Josh Kennedy, Luke Parker and Dan Hannebery; the away team has Scott Pendlebury, Adam Treloar and Steele Sidebottom. Taylor Adams and Kieran Jack will work hard.
Zak Jones and Levi Greenwood throwing their respective bodies at the ball might split atoms. Brodie Grundy has Sam Naismith covered around the ground, but in the ruck the latter’s heft will be critical.
Otherwise, Sydney would appear to have Collingwood well covered at either end of the ground. The Pies have a solid group, but there’s no doubt Collingwood is missing the all-around threat Jamie Elliott provides. Nick Smith will blanket Alex Fasolo, and Heath Grundy and Aliir Aliir should steal Jesse White, Chris Mayne and Darcy Moore’s lunch money all night. The Swans might not have the rebounders of the rest of the competition, but with their strong and hard-working midfield they will have plenty of drive.
Sydney’s forward line potency, particularly with the all-conquering he-man Sam Reid now a running mate for Lance Franklin. The Swans are thin on the ground, with youngsters mostly making up the numbers in the pockets and extra midfielders populating the half forward line on the team sheet.
Unfortunately for the Pies, their weakest point is defensive 50. One area of potential advantage will be moving the ball out of their back half, particularly if the Swans play their up tempo style.
Speaking of forward, it’s Lance Franklin’s 250th game. Now in the fourth of a nine-year contract, Franklin’s influence on Sydney has been immense – almost incalculable (at least given the tools we have available outside of club land). The AFL pulled together a package of what it think are Franklin’s ten best goals earlier this week. As Cam Rose rightly remarked one of the incredible things about the footage is the point in the respective game which most of those goals were kicked.
With 795 to choose from, these are the very best.
Sit back and enjoy @Buddy_Franklin's top 10 goals. pic.twitter.com/d0da5vbMq1
— AFL (@AFL) April 5, 2017
Ten isn’t enough. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime talent, and as he pushed well into AFL 300 games over the remainder of his contract with the Swans, he’ll continue to delight us with his whimsy.
Franklin’s Swans are arguably further away from fielding their best 22 than Collingwood, but they’re still a better team on paper this evening. The Pies and Swans always used to face off in Sydney’s west, and Collingwood had a very good record. But since the games shifted to the SCG in 2015, the Swans have won both outings, including last year’s first round demolition job.
I don’t see a repeat dose this evening, but I do foresee a relatively comfortable Sydney victory. The market is giving Collingwood a three-and-a-half-goal start, which won’t be enough: Swans by 30.
Since 1994, the average season-long win total for a team that has gone 0-3 in their first three games has ended up winning 6.5 over the season, according to ESPN’s Matt Cowgill. That’s not terminal – it’s an average – but history shows an 0-3 start is not conducive to September football.
The stakes are high for an early season game. Tonight’s loser will be well behind the eight ball in season 2017. The stakes are high for an early season game.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast, what’s yours?