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Last week I joked about retiring from tipping – after getting a measly three of nine in Round 3, I almost wish I had! Welcome to The Roar’s AFL expert tips for Round 4.
Last week was a madhouse when it came to tipping so the less said there the better really. If you did anything better than a four, my hat goes off to you.
Things aren’t about to get any easier though! There’s some tantalising matches this round and few if any are easy to tip. The most difficult to decide has to be West Coast versus Sydney tonight.
These sides were both just so disappointing last week – the Eagles unable to adapt to the wet against Richmond, and the Swans going 0-3 with a one-point loss to Collingwood.
I’m giving my tip to the Eagles based on home ground advantage and the thought that, with some better weather, their skills should shine better than they did on Saturday last week.
Then we move to the greatest innovation since sliced bread: Good Friday footy. The Bulldogs should bounce back from last week and condemn North to an 0-4 start, but a rusted-on Roos fans like myself will live in hope.
Melbourne and Fremantle presents an interesting match-up – the Dees would’ve been clear favourites a week ago, but they’ve lost Max Gawn, while Fremantle were on the improve last week.
I’ll still tip the Demons to get it done as I’m not sure Fremantle’s form will hold up as well in Victoria, but it could be tight. Shame we won’t see Sandilands versus Gawn.
GWS host Port Adelaide in Canberra, a crucial match for both teams, one will come out 3-1 and the other 2-2.
My bet is the Giants will get up at a ground they’ve become familiar with, but don’t rule out Port causing another upset.
Carlton versus Gold Coast would have looked like an absolute snoozer a week ago but with both teams coming in off a win it is suddenly of interest.
The winner will be a 2-2 side after the fortunes of both looked so bleak just a little time ago, and that makes this a huge match.
I’m going to tip the Suns in this one – the way they tore apart Hawthorn last week, they are hard to pass up. But it’s difficult to predict how these young teams are going to play week-to-week.
Adelaide versus Essendon is a match that tests my nerve a fair bit. I’ve been positive about the Bombers a lot this year and I reckon they can bounce back from last week’s disappointing loss.
If it was against any other side in the competition I would most likely tip them, but Adelaide at Adelaide Oval is just too irresistible. They might not lose a game there this year.
Collingwood and St Kilda on Sunday is huge for both teams’ seasons, with the loser condemned to a 1-3 start.
So hard to tip – if Jack Steven and David Armitage are both back, the Saints look winners, but without them Collingwood’s midfield class might put them on top.
I’ll put the Saints in as my placeholder pick but I reserve the right to make a late change if Steven and Armitage are stuck on the sidelines again.
UPDATE: Steven’s out. I’m tipping Collingwood.
Brisbane and Richmond is as close as we will get this week to a straightforward tip with the 3-0 Tigers surely heading in as the comfortable favourites.
That said… it is at the Gabba and the Lions aren’t playing too badly this year. Richmond for me, but don’t rule Brisbane out in this big cat battle.
Hawthorn and Geelong on Easter Monday is always a classic match and the Hawks enter it more in need of a win than they’ve been for many years now.
There’s a strong chance here that the Hawks restore some of their lost pride by upsetting the Cats – but I reckon Geelong will be good enough to get it done.
A Lock of the Week? Well, I got it wrong last time around tipping the Bulldogs, but hey, when you’re right 52 per cent of the time, you’re wrong 48 per cent of the time!
At the risk of being a complete idiot, I’ll give the Dogs a second chance and say them beating my Roos is the closest thing we have to a Lock of the Week in Round 4. At least if I’m wrong it’ll make me a very happy man on Friday night.
Maddy Friend
West Coast, Bulldogs, Melbourne, GWS, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn
This is a difficult round of tipping, with most games seeming evenly matched and able to go either way.
I’m tipping West Coast in a close one – their five-day break counts against them, but they’ll have enough reinforcements and the home crowd advantage to get over the Swans.
The Bulldogs should be too good for North, but hey, I said that last week when they played Freo so take that with a grain of salt.
In that vein, Melbourne should be too strong for Freo as they look to make amends for last week’s poor performance against Geelong. Adelaide should also easily account for Essendon.
GWS and Port Adelaide should be a good game – I’m tipping GWS in a close one; their forward line gives them the edge, and their pace can worry Port.
After last week’s results, Carlton and Gold Coast suddenly shapes as a much more interesting game than it once did. I’m going to tip Carlton, purely because it’s in Melbourne and I don’t trust Gold Coast to perform on a consistent basis.
Sunday’s games are both shaping as even encounters – whoever wins out of St Kilda and Collingwood is probably the team who can manage to kick straight; Collingwood’s midfield has a slight edge so I’ll tip them to get the job done.
On last week’s form, you’d have to say Richmond will beat Brisbane, but the Lions have been in decent form and won’t be without a shot.
Similarly, Geelong’s current ladder position suggests they’ll easily account for Hawthorn, but everyone knows you write off Hawthorn at your own peril, and they always front up for clashes against their great rival. I think it’ll be a close game, but I’m tipping the Hawks to break their losing streak.
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Cameron Rose
Sydney, Bulldogs, Melbourne, GWS, Gold Coast, Adelaide, St Kilda, Richmond, Geelong
Head over to the Thursday night forecast for my preview of West Coast and Sydney.
If the Dogs were coming into Good Friday 3-0, then I’d have gone with North here, but the Dogs should be sharpened up now and I’ll stick with them. The Roos are a huge chance though.
Onto Saturday, and Melbourne to comfortably beat Fremantle and go part-way to dispelling doubts about how well they can cover the loss of Max Gawn.
GWS vs Port Adelaide should tell us a lot about where both teams sit in the pecking order, and you stick with the Giants at home.
Which Gold Coast turns up will decide their game against Carlton, even at Etihad. The Suns could have too much class and weapons at either end for the Blues, but if they are too comfortable with themselves after one win, then Carlton will likely get the victory. Going with Gold Coast, but there is a warning bell going off inside my head. Adelaide too strong for Essendon.
Collingwood versus St Kilda on Easter Sunday is extremely tough to pick without seeing any teams, given the types of players that may or may not come back in. Whichever team can sustain their pressure on the opposition for longer will likely win the game. Going with the Saints here, particularly with the game being played at Etihad.
Richmond has a long winning streak going against Brisbane, but both sides are playing a lot differently now. Tigers to win, but only if they bring appropriate intensity. Any drop-off will see a Lions victory.
Hawthorn versus Geelong on Easter Monday is always a massive game, but usually for different reasons to this. No-one is convinced about Geelong, but are the Hawks in any place to exploit their weaknesses?
Gold Coast and Freo came off Round 2 beltings to win in Round 3, and we’re looking for a similar form reversal from the Hawks here. Sticking with the Cats.
| Round 4 | Josh Elliott | Maddy Friend | Tim Lane | Cam Rose | The Crowd |
| WCE vs SYD | WCE | WCE | WCE | SYD | WCE |
| NM vs WB | WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| MEL vs FRE | MEL | MEL | FRE | MEL | MEL |
| GWS vs PA | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| CAR vs GCS | GCS | CAR | CAR | GCS | GCS |
| ADE vs ESS | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| COL vs STK | COL | COL | COL | STK | COL |
| BRI v RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC | RIC |
| HAW vs GEE | GEE | HAW | HAW | GEE | GEE |
| Last week | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Total | 16 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 17 |