Behind the Barriers: Five bets for the weekend

Adam Page Roar Guru

By Adam Page, Adam Page is a Roar Guru

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    There is some really good racing right across the board this Saturday in Australia, and there are plenty of winners to be found. Here are my five key bets for Saturday.

    Bet One: Each-Way – Randwick Race One, Number 3, Silence
    I’m a bit surprised $10+ was offered for this youngster. There was a lot to like about his debut win at Newcastle. He showed an electric turn of foot when asked for the effort by Koby Jennings and despite racing greenly, he was far too classy for them. I like that Team Snowden has sent him straight to town, a sign of confidence for mine.

    Bet Two: Win – Randwick Race Three, Number 2, Black On Gold
    My early pick for the Queensland Derby. Had a high-class first up win at Newcastle where he was back in the run but once Penza gave him clear air, he really attacked the line with purpose. Should only improve off that and rates highly at the Randwick mile.

    Bet Three: All Up Win – Caulfield Race Three, Number 1, Burning Front/Race Four, Number 9, Ruthven
    Provided he has come through the Golden Mile gutbuster, Burning Front should be far too good for them. That effort was outstanding and he only has to recover from that to beat them up. Ruthven is a classy three-year-old who ran a beauty in the Derby, and he only has to hold his form to be winning. That double should be around the $3.50 mark.

    Bet Four: Win – Caulfield Race Eight, Number 8, Tycoon Tara
    Tycoon Tara looks the best bet at Caulfield for mine. A high-class mare for Team Snowden who resumed in the Sapphire at Randwick behind Secret Agenda and just forget she went around there. Trials indicated she needed the run and that track just didn’t suit her. Back to Caulfield where she has a fabulous record and she does look to get the lead comfortably from the good draw.

    Bet Five: Win – Doomben Race Five, Number 1, Emerald City
    Emerald City can start the day at Doomben on the right note. The David Vandyke-trained stayer has had two runs back from a break, the latest coming in the Toowoomba Cup where he tried hard but just didn’t finish it off behind Cylinder Beach, but his effort was more than tidy. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and he is the clear horse to beat.

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    The Crowd Says (4)

    • April 21st 2017 @ 4:19pm
      andrew said | April 21st 2017 @ 4:19pm | ! Report

      CAUL (assuming soft 5, maybe a soft 6)
      2 – pay up bro should be winning this race. in fact, he needs to win it really. Strike rate is not great, but has generally raced in much higher grade and was (fair enough) tried as a stayer in his 3yo season. 2 from 2 with Jordan childs in the saddle. Flogged grande rosso 4th run last prep. two most recent runs in BM78 grade were the win over grande rosso and a nose 2nd to wheatshaf flyer on geelong cup day (Kapset was beaten even further that day). Easily beat several key rivals last start in a BM90 race, so that is obv a key formline for a BM78 grade. Hard to see 1 and 6 turning tables. 1 has winning form, but pay up bro beat it easily 2 runs back and beat it 6l last prep, the only 2 times they have clashed, and pay up bro meets its better at weights from both those clashes. Im always happy to risk aurum spirit, best form is at flem anyway. Happy to risk irish optimisim off its first up run aust run, could improve, but needs too. mr Churchill is a horse we know well from the thur/fri night circuits, honest trier but limited type, won a pretty weak BM70 last time at first go beyond BM64, this is a step up again. Kapset fits a similar bill. kapset and Churchill win run somewhere between 2nd and 5th , cos thats just their grading. Super haze has upside and expect him to be winning once over 2000m in sat grade this winter, but always wary a stayer 2nd up. So, really, it all points to pay up bro, all things being equal, esp given only 1.5kgs over limit weight. As for the running of the race, bro has been showing decent gate speed of late and Jordan just needs to be positive early (he usually is) noting he has 3 horses drawn inside him with inferior early speed (No’s 2, 4, 9). It’s a very unlikely scenario he is trapped 3 wide. most likely scenario is he sits behind elite tiger and mr Churchill with kapset outside them one off the rail. I think the likely race map rans out well for him. im not perturbed by his ‘poor’ caul record when go back and look at the class/distance of those runs. Similarly his mile record given not far off G1 winners in hes our rookiii and tarzino (at times both horses were going well). im just as keen on a dry track but some give is no disadvantage. should win. needs to win. I think he will win.

      3 – burning front should win again. No big play at $1.60 or so, but goes into multis and one out quads.

      4 – Ruthven is a deserved fave. This is no doubt a tick over run between AJC and SA derby, but he is going to hold his fitness and it’s the perfect fill in race given home track, set weights and prizemoney on offer and 2000m. AJC derby is consistently in the top few rating races in Aust each year and always in the top 2-3 races for 3yo. There are no stars amongst the older brigade and I think this is ripe for one of the progressive 3yo’s to take out. Ruthven clearly has the best form of this trio. I was keen rockstart rebel last start and he ran well, but had light weight that day and this is tougher no doubt, think he is still in mix for SA derby, but couldn’t back him to beat Ruthven tomorrow.

      6 – French emotion most fascinating runner of day. Im lukewarm. Best form clearly on dry track. this will have some give. Inside gate no huge spoil either. Big run last sat when was only closer to get near them in leader dominated race, but now back to 1400m. she was nomed for 1800m 2 weeks back when thunderstorm came, and nomed for 1600 and 2000m races this sat too. im not sure back to 1400m is ideal. it just takes one slow section and race to jam up at 800m. if this was 1600m and on a good 3, id load up at any price……….but despite all the obv things in her favour (form, weights, class) I think she is rock bottom odds at the moment. So, who is going to beat then clarky, I here you say ? well, at end of day, I have her on top, cos it’s a moderate race. but, not sure I want to hit up hard. Very intresting to see which was market goes, could be anything from $2.2 to $4.

      7 – omalley a good ew option in a tough race. speed is strong and with no headwind and some give in the track, its an ideal set up for those drawn out a bit to get home hard. Soft tracks at caul tend to suit swoopers as day wares on. Not a bais, just a natural track pattern. Id be wary of inside barriers later in the day (esp with large fields and the 4000m effectively giving 2 races worth of wear). Mahuta will need the run. 2 and 3 are class runners, but do concede 4-5 kgs to many rivals here, levelling things up. omalley is one of the higher rated runners on limit weight, but still progressing his rating going from 82 to 90 last prep. 6oy with only 12 runs, I think there is more to come. Just has not always been sound. So this bit of give ideal. his only run at caul was a ripper and has won down straight. So don’t subscribe to any callings he is ‘just a valley horse’. He is just a good horse full stop. 1100m ideal first up, 1200m might have a stretch fresh, and obv has super fresh form. whilst I don’t place much weight on ‘trial form’ do observe merriest and miss vista both last week, which cant be a negative. Prepared to risk crystal dreamer (and those it beat) and rocket tommy. Omally ew. fatinaah and kapernick go in quad with well sprung.

      9 – kazio was a big run bend guineas and that has to be the best/key form ref for this given 2nd horse has since won at caul last sat and so did waterloo sunset who ran 5th (well, it dead heated). Milwaukui ran fast time winning the bend guineas (he is one to follow as he heads north over winter) quicker than the listed mares and quicker than the BM90 winner top me up. he was only .05 sec outside a track record held since 1999. So, back to level weights in effectively a BM67, this is the right form. and thus narrows it down quickly to sword of light and kazio. Kazio’s prior run at valley on bias track was excellent against a horse who has since won again. No knock sword of light. there was a nose between them at Bendigo and same weights here, but think kazios run was better being shunted very wide turning. just think that out to the mile we can get more improvement from kazio and sword of lights backs up for 3rd week in a row. Sword of light will be in front of kazio in the run, but think tempo will be strong here and kazio can get over it. soft ground obv no worries given maiden win swooping home back from the tail.

      ADL
      3 – counter pulse flying and well graded again. Claimer goes on, but simple horse to ride being a leader. No reason to jump off from its winning streak sticking to same track and distance. Soft ground would be a concern, so monitoring weather.
      5 – royal rumble beat most of these last time and continues to improve with racing this prep, and step up in distance is ideal (has run 2nd to howard by thy name over 2000m), as several of those he beat a queries out to longer trip. Only negative is the weight rise, but that not enough to stop me investing
      6 – good race. im with viddora who is bursting to win a race, and think she maps to get perfect trail behind petit filous and I think fast tempo will see this field string out a bit meaning don’t think she will get hemmed in from inner draw turning. Tragedy beaten last start and form through its two QLD runs is holding up very well. just a bit wary illustrious lad who does have super record in ADL and seems well in at WFA, but was set for big sprints and don’t think his form is any superior to viddora really. Lightning run a tad flattering given odd race and bunched finished.
      8 – keen on benz who won well at caul over carnival when last seen in fast time beating derryn who has since won twice. Twice tried beyond 1200m and run well both times, but not in placings. Take those runs out, and his sprint record is very, very good. 6 from 8. Of the two sprint misses one was on debut when injured and beaten 30 lengths and the other in a hot form race behind cavaloce and lord aspen last spring when terribly weighted as a 3yo in the hcps (but still ran well). the NT raider has fast speed and he draws to outside of benz and so does el divino. It’s a decent run to the first turn, and reckon benz just tucks in behind the leader and like his slightly wide draw. Confident he will run well.

      Best: Pay up Bro, Kazio, Royal Rumble, Benz

    • April 21st 2017 @ 5:29pm
      Razzar said | April 21st 2017 @ 5:29pm | ! Report

      I like Rockstar Rebel in R 4 at Caufield tommorow. Yes up in weight, yes a 3yo. But this is getting late in the season.
      He gets back, but 4th up now. The handicapper has given him 56kgs mainly because the opposition here is nothing special… But I still want $8 to back him. 😀

      R7 at Caufield is the 1100 sprint. Looks worth a bet.

      Faatinah is drawn to get on pace run, with Rocket Tommy crossing. The speed could be, both thier undoing here. But rates an $8 chance

      Kaepernick will get back, but is the dist specialist here, classy type rates best here. $5.50 rating

      Well Sprung is in best form of career. Will also get get back, but with luck. Rates a $13 chance.

      Legless Veuve may just get the soft run behind the pace from nice barrier. Rates a $13 chance.

      Rocket Tommy takes on a stronger class, has no option but to cross lead and go. Could steal it but likely to have worked early. Rates a $8 chance.

      Good luck on you selections Adam, and Good luck Punters.

    • April 21st 2017 @ 6:10pm
      michael steel said | April 21st 2017 @ 6:10pm | ! Report

      Although I’m a terrible tipster I have to throw this out
      Brisbane Race 7 The TAILS STAKES 1600
      Group 1 winner Single Gaze is currently $4.60 $1.90 on fixed odds.
      Kathy O’Hara won’t get off this horse. It’s fourth up and has won over the mile.

    • April 23rd 2017 @ 6:45pm
      michael steel said | April 23rd 2017 @ 6:45pm | ! Report

      So Group 1 winner Single Gaze won the TAILS STAKES and i was quick to snap up the $4.60 and $1.90 which I thought were sensational odds. However she paid $7.00 and $2.60. Another case of when you win, you lose.

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