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NA LCS spring playoffs: Closing the split

The World Championships have reached the business end.
Roar Guru
21st April, 2017
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I tried to avoid using the word ‘stomp’ last week, but that’s really the best word to describe both of the semifinal series. Both series went 3-0, not a single game was over 35 minutes long, and no losing team took more than three turrets.

The first series saw Cloud9, who finished the regular season in second place, play against third placed Phoenix1. Phoenix1’s decision to have Inori and Shady start for both games one and two have been questioned far and wide, although Meteos’ performance in Game 3 wasn’t exactly a saving grace.

Cloud9 consistently took advantage of every single mistake that Phoenix1 made. It’s how they won their first game, and they steamrolled the series from there. I think back to Contractz’s first match of the split, and how incredibly impressive he seemed, and this weekend he looked completely back on form. Smoothie’s vision control was excellent, roaming himself and inhibiting roams from their enemy.

While Shady looked more like Shaky, in all fairness to him we have only seen him play against Cloud9 and Team SoloMid so far this split. He has been announced as the starting support ahead of the match against FlyQuest, which should allow him to show if he is actually a strong support who has been playing into challenging opponents, or if he will need the time off between splits to develop as a player.

We also saw first place Team SoloMid face off against fifth seed FlyQuest. The series, especially games one and three, were somewhat closer than may have been comfortable for Team SoloMid, but ultimately they were able to win every game.

Team SoloMid did look a tad shaky in parts of their game, and it’s hard to say if that’s due to their opponents’ playstyle or due to Team SoloMid playing poorly. Once they got into the rhythm of things though, they were able to outplay FlyQuest at every turn. Hauntzer had an impressive series with a 17.5 KDA, and was awarded player of the series.

FlyQuest really picked up their early game in this series, and managed to keep the games looking closer for far longer than expected. In sharp contrast to last week’s games though, Altec’s Ashe arrows missed way too often, often losing them fights and therefore games.

This weekend’s matches should both be pretty exciting. Judging by this weekend’s performance, the games will be fairly evenly matched, or at least moreso than they were this past weekend.

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Third Place: Phoenix1 versus FlyQuest at 5am AEST Sunday
Both these teams will be out to prove themselves worthy semifinalists after rather embarrassing records last weekend. Phoenix1 need to show that their rise from relegations was not just on the back of Meteos subbing in, while FlyQuest are trying to counter the view that their team is just washed up players whose heyday was in season three.

I’m going to break pattern and call it from the start; 3-2 for FlyQuest. Although I have a lot of respect for Phoenix1, and I think they deserve to be where they are, they are much more like CounterLogic Gaming than they are like Team SoloMid. Although a game or two may be decisive, most of the series will be close, with FlyQuest’s aggression and constant pressure wearing them down.

Now, in fairness, Phoenix1 have had a whole week to prepare for this. They know what they’re up against, and they’ve won against it before. Phoenix1, as a team, need to be prepared for a hard slog of a series, where they will be attacked constantly. If they can avoid getting worn down, and if they can know when to reciprocate aggression versus when to turn away, they certainly can take the series.

University of New South Wales UNSW League of Legends eSports 2016

FlyQuest however have changed somewhat since their last meeting. They no longer rely on off-meta picks (in the week seven match that Phoenix1 won, FlyQuest picked Shaco and Anivia in game one, and Mordekaiser in game two. They lost both games), and have also had all week to look at where their opponents weaknesses are.

FlyQuest’s preparation for this weekend is going to me much more similar to their usual prep than Phoenix1. The latter are a very good team; all their players have the potential to have an impressive series. They have a significant change of pace ahead of them however, and I think that chaos may well be the victor at the end of the day.

Grand final: Cloud9 versus Team SoloMid at 5am Monday
The classic LCS finisher, this match-up is now going to grace the finals stage for the sixth time in nine finals. Team SoloMid have won the last three of the five so far, but Cloud9 are sporting both rookie and coach of the split.

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Based on last week’s play, I believe Cloud9 will win this match 3-1. This doesn’t seem to be a popular analysis – most outlets and analysts are calling it for Team SoloMid – but to me they’re putting too much emphasis on split performance and too little on playoff performance. Looking at the last matches for each of these teams, Cloud9 was much better at keeping Phoenix1 under control from the outset of the game, where Team SoloMid consistently let FlyQuest take kills and vision, even if it was taken back after.

Although League of Legends is most definitely a team game, so much of this series will depend on Contractz. His play could make or break things for Cloud9; not that he’s ever been a bottom-of-the-barrel player, but when he plays well, his team wins.

Sneaky and Smoothie are a much better looking bot lane than WildTurtle and Biofrost. Although the Team SoloMid duo have higher kill numbers, their series was far bloodier, and they have higher deaths accordingly. Team SoloMid’s botlane KDA was 6.5, while Cloud9’s was an impressive 10.8.

Sneaky and Smoothie fed far fewer kills over to Phoenix1 than Turtle and Biofrost, Sneaky outranks Turtle in every important stat other than actual kills, and although Biofrost has marginally better stats in the support role, Smoothie’s roams were invaluable.

Team SoloMid do have some strong players of their own, of course. Little more needs to be said about how fantastic Hauntzer played over the weekend, and although his confidence may seem arrogant, it should also help him feel less nervous going into Monday’s match.

I don’t know that much needs to be said about Bjergsen. His continued dominance over the North American mid lane has been somewhat challenged by Jensen, but he seems more consistent, less easily rattled. His grounded nature and consistent output could be what Team SoloMid need to work around the pressure from Contractz.

I’m going to be happy with a win from either of these teams, honestly. They were clearly the top two teams in the region, and both are capable of winning this match. In past splits, the winner of summer has gone on to win the next spring, so by that logic Team SoloMid should take the trophy, but I think Cloud9 can break that trend on Monday morning.

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Whoever wins Monday’s match is going to be playing against one of the top minor region teams in a couple of weeks time at the Mid-Season invitational. Australia’s own Dire Wolves will be in the opening match of the play-in stage at 4am on April 29… but I will take a look at all that next week.

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