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Sitting down to put the tipping panel together was the first chance I had to look at games this weekend, and doesn’t it loom as a really entertaining round?
It feels like more than a few rounds have coasted by this season, and the Australian teams have no doubt contributed to that, but Round 10 could be the best yet.
I said on Thursday that I think six of the eight games could go either way, and that’s probably a bit a rough on the Sharks, on reflection. I still think the Jaguares at home will win, but the Sharks have a horrible knack of reminding me they’re a better team than I think they are at any given time.
So what do I really want to see this weekend? Well, I’m glad you asked.
Which Australian team can play out a game?
If there’s been one common element of Australian teams this year, it’s the shocking habit of shelling tries late in games. The Waratahs are the only side to not concede the most tries in the final 20 minutes every game, and that’s because, for some reason, the ‘Tahs have conceded 13 of the 35 tries they’ve let in this season in the period leading into halftime.
This is how it reads for the five Australian sides:
Brumbies – 11 of their 21 tries conceded coming after halftime, and seven of those in the last quarter;
Force – 14 of 26 tries conceded after halftime, eight in the last twenty minutes;
Rebels – 22 of 35 tries conceded in the second forty, 13 in the last quarter;
Red – 22 of 34 conceded in the second half, 14 in the last twenty; and
Waratahs – 13 of 35 tries conceded after halftime; eight in the last twenty minutes.
The Brumbies and the ‘Tahs are the only sides to have scored more second-half tries than they’ve conceded, though both teams took a hit in that department last week. The Rebels, worryingly, have scored just three second-half tries in 2017, and only one of them in the last 20 minutes of a game.
It’s really simplistic to say, but it’s also true, that the first Australian side to start playing games consistently will be the one that starts stringing wins together.
Of course to do that they’ve got to be holding enough ball to attack with, and the issue there is that Australian sides have been guilty both of kicking too much ball away and not winning their share at the breakdown.
Like defence – and that’s another question for another day – holding onto possession and winning the breakdown contest comes down to attitude. So which Australian side is ready to adapt theirs?
Could the patient Stormers sew up Africa One tonight?
The surprising stat I found this week was that the runaway leader of the most tries scored from seven or more phases this season is – well, yeah, the Stormers. The Stormers have scored 12 of the 37 tries this year from seven-plus phases, which is well in front of the next best Crusaders with eight (as an aside, the Hurricanes have scored 26 of their 56 tries in 2017 from first phase!).
The Stormers weren’t good enough in Christchurch last weekend, but they’ll be a lot closer to the Highlanders tonight in Dunedin, I suspect – and if they could sneak a win in the same week the Bulls have the bye and the Cheetahs host the unbeaten Crusaders, they could go at least 16 points clear on the Africa One conference table. With only eight rounds to come, that’s very nearly uncatchable.
Even if they can’t win this weekend in Dunedin or next weekend in Wellington, the Stormers can win their last five games and take the conference fairly comfortably anyway.
The Cheetahs have their New Zealand games to come, and the Bulls play three New Zealand teams plus the Lions and Sharks. Both sides play the Stormers on the run home, too. The Cheetahs might win three of their remaining games, but the Bulls might only win two.
With a 12-point gap now, the Stormers might already be safe. But a win under the roof in ‘Dunners’ tonight will pretty much confirm it.
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Is this the round the Jaguares start their finals run?
Meanwhile, in Africa Two, the Jaguares and the Sharks face off in the first match of an eight-week competition within a competition to see who probably take the one available African group wildcard spot.
The Jaguares now have a run of five-straight home games, and included in their run home are the Sunwolves, the Kings and all the Australian sides bar the Reds. It looks like a really good line-up. The Sharks have Force-Kings-Sunwolves but then play the other four South African sides to finish. It’s far from a good run home!
A Jaguares win this weekend will draw the two teams level, though bonus points either way could still have one in front of the other. But I think this is where the Jags start taking advantage of their home ground fortress in Buenos Aires, and if they do that, they make the playoffs.
How on earth has Matt Todd played 100 games already?
Richie McCaw’s been retired only ten minutes, but somehow the young punk in the headgear who was groomed to replace him will run out in his 100th Super Rugby match against the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein.
But it’s true; Matt Todd debuted in 2011 with McCaw in pre-Rugby World Cup cotton wool, and without too much of a fuss as hit the bottom of most rucks along the way to bring up the tonne inside seven seasons. Perhaps even more surprising is that he’s 29, because it still only feels like he’s 24 or 25.
It’s a fair nod to Todd’s quality for the Crusaders that McCaw spent a fair amount of his final few seasons in the red and black playing in jerseys other than the No. 7, and it’s probably a bit rough that a couple of blokes named Cane and Savea have limited his international appearances to just eight.
But he’ll be front and centre in his hundredth game, and he’ll likely be a major reason why the Crusaders will be too good for the Cheetahs.
Enjoy your rugby this weekend.