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Much was expected of both Melbourne and St Kilda heading into 2017. Supporters were bullish. Internal expectations were finals, and high up at that.
Externally, they were the popular picks to make the leap into September from outside the eight last year.
These two clubs have been occupying similar spots on the ladder for a number of seasons.
In 2014, they both registered a competition-low four wins, and a percentage in the 60s. St Kilda ‘won’ the wooden spoon and plumped for Paddy McCartin with pick one, while Melbourne had pick two and snapped up Christian Petracca with glee. You won’t find a Demon fan that wishes that went the other way, although a few Saints probably do.
In 2015, Melbourne improved to seven wins, while St Kilda finished with six and a half, and both had a percentage in the 70s this time.
2016 saw further improvement again, the Saints finishing ninth with 12 wins, the Dees 11th with ten wins. Both had percentages in the mid-90s, and were able to claim a top four scalp in the second half of the season.
Melbourne and St Kilda have each mined the draft for top end talent, but have also astutely picked off players from other clubs, both fielding nine players on the weekend that started their careers elsewhere. The Saints also have a wonderful 2017 draft position thanks to Hawthorn’s failings, and how they utilise those assets will go a long way to determining whether they can get well ahead of the Dees in the future.
Both sides currently sit square with the ledger at 3-3 after wins as slight underdogs on the weekend.
The Demons are averaging 99 points per game, the Saints 97. Both sides have conceded the exact same score against, at 91 points per game. Their percentages are obviously similar.
One area they differ is scoreboard accuracy, with Melbourne totalling 87.72, with St Kilda at 81.95. Both sides have had matches where they dominated large stages of the game against good sides without being able to kick straight to ensure a match-winning lead.
Melbourne has had the tougher draw when looking at opposition played, given their opponents have totalled 21 wins between them, while St Kilda’s have totalled only 16. That said, the Saints have had to travel interstate twice, including the tough Perth trip to play West Coast, while the Dees haven’t left Victoria yet.
Looking at St Kilda first, their inability to convert scoring opportunities into goals is hurting them. As a middle-of-the-road side, they simply aren’t good enough to be letting teams off the hook so frequently, and still expecting to win.
We know what we get from Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna, Jack Steven, Sam Gilbert and Jarryn Geary, and the team can’t hope to rise off any improvement from them.
Seb Ross is probably leading the Saints best-and-fairest after a sixth placed finish last year. He didn’t start this season as his team’s best midfielder, but he might end the year that way. Jimmy Webster has elevated his game and cemented his spot accordingly. Dylan Roberton has been outstanding with his intercept play and run from the back half and through the middle. Jack Steele has been an important hard-edged addition, as he was always going to be.
On the flip side, the Saints tall forward set-up has disappointed. We’re still waiting for Paddy McCartin’s breakout game, and in four of his last five appearances at AFL level, he’s finished with five disposals or less. He looks a mile below the required level at this stage. Josh Bruce has taken only two contested marks in six games, which is a poor return. Tim Membrey is yet to shape a tough game when the Saints need someone to step up.
At Melbourne, 2015 draft bolter Clayton Oliver has been the standout performer, and one of the best players in the competition. He leads the Demons in disposals, contested possessions, clearances, tackles, and goal assists. He’s also top ten in the league in each of these stats. Oh, and he’s 19 years old and has played only 19 games.
Jayden Hunt was a revelation off half-back last season, and will continue to impact games meaningfully as his possession tally grows, up 30 per cent on 2016. He and Michael Hibberd already look formidable together with their rebound.
Christian Salem is putting together his most consistent patch of football too, another option that improves the Demon ball movement. This version of the Dees is very hard to stop when they are moving the ball across the ground on their terms.
Melbourne’s disappointment has been one desperately poor quarter of football in each of the games they’ve lost. Against Geelong, they lost the last term 1.2 to 6.4. Against Fremantle, they kicked 0.3 to 7.4 in the third quarter. Richmond ran away with 5.5 to 0.2 against them on Anzac eve. That’s conceding a combined 18.13 while kicking 1.7 themselves, which is appalling regardless of what personnel excuses may get dragged out. There was an on-field leadership vacuum in these situations.
Adelaide and GWS are the two obvious powerhouse teams in the early season. Port and the Western Bulldogs look the next most likely contenders. West Coast should earn enough wins to play finals, given their record at home, combined with a soft away draw. It would be unusual for Geelong and Richmond, despite missteps on the weekend, to miss the eight after 5-0 starts.
The battle-lines were drawn between the Dees and Saints in the pre-season, and they are neck-and-neck on the fringes of the eight as we approach the second third of the home-and-away rounds.
Can Melbourne put Hawthorn away this week, as the Saints have already done? Can St Kilda enhance their credentials against a GWS in hot form? The following week, the Demons have to play the Crows in Adelaide, while the Saints must account for an honest Carlton.
There’s every chance that 3-3 each of two becomes 4-4 apiece. This is one race that looks like going deep into the season, and one that all football fans will be watching with interest.