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The Victory have a few things to think about this week – the task of beating Sydney FC in the grand final is a colossal one, like being asked to repel a massive, Earth-bound meteor with a Wiffle bat.
That’s what the momentum Sydney have hauled into the season’s ultimate game feels like; unstoppable, and it’s laughable to even try to halt it. And yet with an abrasive enough atmosphere the whizzing meteor might be whittled away, charred down to a crisp, arriving at the saviour, bat in hand, as barely more than a pebble.
It feels as though this is what Melbourne must do. Instead of rushing out to meet the Sydney juggernaut with some grand counter-plan, to fight their dominance with some daring, audacious riposte, the Victory must think smaller. Stifle, spoil, clog, and hope, these are the bywords of the evening, as negative as it sounds.
Perth’s evisceration in the semi-final stands as a warning for the Victory, a handy demonstration of what happens when an inferior team attempts to take the game to Sydney with pluck and confidence alone.
Although, Melbourne almost succeeded doing this in March, in a game that ended as a 1-0 Sydney win – but Melbourne should really have scored the opening goal. They had three chances to do so, all crafted by targeting Michael Zullo’s susceptible wing, using the potency and play-making of Marco Rojas to apply telling, sudden pressure there.
A first-time diagonal ball, a lofted straight clip, and a regulation skidded pass all activated Rojas suddenly, who did the rest as he so beautifully does.
These were all sudden, ambitious passes that caught Sydney napping. The latter two ended up handing two golden chances to Jai Ingham, but he wasted them. You can see in the third clip how out of position Rhyan Grant is on the weak side flank; the Sydney fullbacks, both of them, offer at least one or two opportunities like this every game.
But it would be unwise for Muscat to assume Sydney will begin the grand final in the same lackadaisical manner they did the March encounter.
Again, the semi-final’s opening skirmishes, where Perth took things brazenly to Sydney’s defence, are a good preview. Sydney eased back on their heels, calm and stoic, and then dug in a little, repelling their upstart opponents after a short while.
It bears remembering that Sydney have only seen the ball bulge their own net a dozen times in the league this season; their defence is immaculate, and even when it isn’t, it’s here that the quality of Danny Vukovic becomes so vitally important.
Why would the league’s best defence need a great keeper, considering how few shots he’d be asked to face? The various times Vukovic has come to the rescue this season, like in the second clip above, answers that question with aplomb. Vukovic is not separate from the defence. He is a vital part of what makes it so good.
When the Central Coast Mariners scored twice against Sydney in the second half of their January match – a 3-2 win for premiers – they did something no team had done or would do again; score more than once in the second half against Sydney. That result, although obviously still a win for the Sky Blues, stands out as odd, slightly haywire and reckless, considering the controlled grind the rest of their season has been.
In truth the Mariners scored two goals from three shots on target – one unwittingly assisted by Filip Holosko, the other coming from a counter-attack that targeted the advanced Sydney fullbacks in a very similar manner to that second Jai Ingham chance above.
The crucial thing here, though, is the shot-to-goal efficiency the Mariners managed, which is a rate that cannot be expected from Melbourne in the grand final, and that’s even assuming they have Besart Berisha at his lethal best, not his air-swinging worst.
Basically, in their last match, once Melbourne had missed those three great chances, their appetite for the contest faded. They had no secondary system, and Sydney proceeded to stroll to victory, the 1-0 scoreline of which was a cosmetic mercy belying the Sky Blues’ dominance.
Melbourne might hunker down this time with attrition on their minds and – with the added adrenaline of an away grand final pumping through their veins – carry this determination through to the final whistle.
Central to this effort must be the nullification of Milos Ninkovic, something Muscat must make his priority. Recently Jose Mourinho deployed Ander Herrera in a specific man-marking role on Chelsea’s Eden Hazard.
Herrera is a hugely versatile, diligent player, and his shadowing of Hazard effectively removed the Belgian’s attacking threat from the match. Herrera was allowed rare permission to focus entirely on his very specialised role, and Mourinho’s Manchester United won the game.
Carl Valeri might be used in a similar role on Ninkovic, with a firm duty simply to trail the Serbian maestro wherever he roams on the pitch – and he roams far and wide – and with special instruction to impart as much physical trauma as the rules permit. Valeri is a strong, tall, athletic midfielder who would relish the role.
The line-up must be tweaked to compensate, with Fahid Ben Khalfallah replaced by, say, Rashid Mahazi, who would push back into a midfield three completed by Valeri and Leigh Broxham. A front three of Rojas, Berisha and James Troisi would really only be a front 2.5, with Troisi given the daunting task of moonlighting as a midfield rover, pressing the deeper Sydney pair of Josh Brillante and Brandon O’Neill.
Troisi is the owner of the league’s best motor, and the Sydney pair, especially Brillante, will be responsible for a huge amount of creative responsibility if Ninkovic is tied up by Valeri.
Finally, Broxham will have to provide cover for his fullbacks, because if their Sydney counterparts rev forwards, a dangerous overload will occur. Jason Geria and Daniel Georgevski can both be highly suspect when it comes to tracking runners.
Again, we can look to the teams’ last meeting, and Bobo’s winning goal for evidence of this. The entire time Sydney are making progress down the far side Bobo is utterly unmarked on the other flank, with Geria jogging nonchalantly behind him.
Geria has prodigious acceleration, but for some reason he appears unconcerned, and even as Bobo taps in the goal Geria coasts on listlessly. This will not be acceptable in the grand final, and if Geria cannot motivate himself in those surrounds, Broxham’s assistance will be even more vital.
As for the Victory’s attack, well, it largely relies on Rojas and Troisi crafting something for Berisha to finish off. Set pieces, extra time and penalties are the Victory’s friends. It’s depressing to say, but trying to go toe-to-toe with Sydney has not succeeded for anyone yet and it’s unlikely to on Sunday.
All of this will not go off without a hitch. A lot of it depends on the Victory players bringing not just a clear understanding of the system and their role within it, but that intangible will to win as well. If Brillante roosters in another piledriver from distance, the whole thing might be rendered moot.
But it does seem as though an aggressively defensive system gives the Victory the best chance of, well, not losing.