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2017 Mid-Season Invitational: The squeeze into groups

Riot games. (Image: Riot Games)
Roar Guru
4th May, 2017
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Only a week into the League of Legends Mid-Season Invitational and already we’ve seen so much action!

The play-in round robin stage showed just how difficult it is to judge regions’ relative strengths. The Dire Wolves came, saw, and handed RED Canids the defeat that ensured SuperMassive eSports’ progression to the next round.

Virtus.Pro and Gigabyte Marines’ games were great fun to watch but entirely unrepresentative of the group; while these teams went 1-1 against each other, Virtus.Pro won only one other game, and Gigabyte Marines won the group with a 5-1 record.

In Round 2 Team SoloMid’s victory over Gigabyte Marines was far too close for comfort; I checked the scores after waking up to see Gigabyte Marines with a 2-0 lead, leaving Team SoloMid in the uncomfortable position of having to pull off the reverse sweep. Although they were able to do so, they absolutely underestimated Gigabyte Marines in earlier games, and it took them the whole series to recover. Game five was excellent to watch, showing the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and capturing the feel of the whole series.

The match essentially came down to Team SoloMid competing against a playstyle they rarely, if ever, have to face in the LCS. Usually Team SoloMid play fairly methodically, but in the first two games Gigabyte Marines were able to dictate the pace, playing fast with scrappy team fights throughout.

From game three onwards, however, Team SoloMid took back control. Although Gigabyte Marines adapted well, they just weren’t quite able to beat Team SoloMid at their own game

By the time this article goes up, the second match of Round 2 will have been played between Flash Wolves and SuperMassive eSports. While game one has cast a lot of doubt over the generally accepted views of which regions are stronger than whichever others, I still feel relatively confident that Flash Wolves will be able to win their way into the group stage.

These two teams met in last year’s MSI group stage, where Flash Wolves won both games; in fact the only win for SuperMassive was against CounterLogic Gaming. Of course a full year has passed, and the teams will both have changed and grown, but we’re not talking about one of the frequently shaky regions; this is the team that have dominated the LMS in recent years, and won IEM Oakland in February with their current roster.

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This isn’t to say SuperMassive have done badly; they won the International Wild Card Invitational last year, had a great split at home and looked considerably stronger than their groupmates in the round robin.

Their macro gameplay is far more developed than their groupmates’, which has been a significant point of differentiation among minor region teams. As good as the team and their history may be, though, it’s just not on the same level as the Flash Wolves. Whichever team is involved, at 4am AEST on Sunday the last-chance match will be played between Gigabyte Marines and Friday’s loser.

If Flash Wolves do lose to SuperMassive, while I think everyone would think Flash Wolves were significantly weaker than first assumed, I would still expect Flash Wolves to win against Gigabyte Marines. Flash Wolves have so much more international experience, and regularly practice and play against other world-class teams.

That said, the scenario of SuperMassive winning is incredibly unlikely; Flash Wolves are among the three favourite teams to make it to the finals. We are very, very likely going to see Sunday’s match between Gigabyte Marines and SuperMassive eSports, which should also be a much more enjoyable match to watch than one against Flash Wolves.

These two teams have quite different playstyles. As mentioned, Gigabyte Marines play with constant action whereas SuperMassive are more like Team SoloMid, with an overarching macro focus.

Both teams have some impressive talent; Gigabyte Marines’ Jungler Levi went toe-to-toe with Svenskeren, while SuperMassive’s Support Dumbledoge is one of only four players globally to attend every MSI tournament.

It’s very hard to say which of these teams will make it into the group stage of the tournament.

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On paper I can’t help but feel that SuperMassive have an edge; they are well-versed in international tournaments, and their focus on macro gameplay has helped them win against all the other play-in teams so far. FabFabulous, Naru and Dumbledoge are an intimidating set of names to play against, and with good reason; Dumbledoge’s Camille, for example, wrought havoc on enemy teams.

If history has taught us anything, however, it’s that we cannot count out representatives from the GPL.

Gigabyte Marines nearly took down Team SoloMid; it’s broadly agreed that SuperMassive are not on that level, which means that Gigabyte Marines are in with a strong chance.

Their constant fighting may yet be able to wear down their opponents over the course of the series, and with the synergy coming out of Levi and Optimus, this is a very reasonable strategy to expect from the team.

Having seen the games Gigabyte Marines were able to bring to Team SoloMid, I think they would be able to win against whatever SuperMassive throw at them. Both these teams have some very clear strengths, but knowing the staying power of even highly-regarded teams can waver in front of the aggression of Gigabyte Marines, SuperMassive would have a tough time holding on.

This is all assuming that, by the time anyone else reads this, Flash Wolves have beaten SuperMassive eSports.

It’s hard to say if Team SoloMid have come into the tournament somewhat overrated, or if the play-in teams, or at least Gigabyte Marines, have been underrated.

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The Flash Wolves versus SuperMassive eSports game should give us a clearer indication of which of these is true. Perhaps the minor regions are in fact stronger than we realised, and for the first time we could see two minor region representatives in the MSI group stage.

Speaking of, the group stage is going to be packed and exhausting. Starting at 4:30am on Thursday, 11 May, the top six teams will start their double round robin; a five-day slog of matches with two games per team per day. The teams confirmed so far are SK Telecom T1 from South Korea, World Elite from China, G2 eSports from Europe and now Team SoloMid from North America.

There will be so much to watch, and the teams participating this weekend will not have had a lot of time to practice. MSI is an incredibly long tournament this year and will no doubt be exhausting for whichever minor region gets into the group stage. Still, as viewers it gives us a lot to look forward to!

I’ll take a closer look at the teams and games in the group stage next week. Which match-up are you most excited to see, either this weekend or further into the tournament?

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