The Wallabies will reach the 2019 Rugby World Cup final

David Lord Columnist

By David Lord, David Lord is a Roar Expert

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    Little wonder Wallaby coach Michael Cheika sported a broad smile sitting next to his former Randwick teammate Eddie Jones, now coach of England, at Kyoto during the 2019 Rugby World Cup draw this week.

    The men in gold had just been handed two golden wands.

    Not only did the Wallabies end up with a dream draw, but if the sudden-death format is the same as 2015, the Wallabies will be in the bottom half with Ireland, leaving the All Blacks and England to battle out the top half.

    An All Black-Wallaby final, a repeat of 2015?

    It makes no sense having the draw two years, four months, and ten days out from the Rugby World Cup kick-off, but it’s sensible now from the Wallabies’ point of view.

    Here’s how the draw unfolded, with current world rankings in brackets.

    Ireland (4) in Pool A.
    All Blacks (1) – Pool B.
    England (2) – Pool C.
    And the Wallabies (3) – Pool D

    Then the next four rankings.

    Scotland (5) – Pool A.
    Boks (7) – Pool B
    France (6) – Pool C,
    And Wales (8) – Pool D.

    The next four:

    Japan (11) host, pre-qualified from 2015 – Pool A.
    Italy (15) – pre-qualified from 2015 – Pool B.
    Pumas (9) – Pool C
    And Georgia (12) – pre-qualified from 2015 – Pool D.

    If the knock-out format is the same as 2015:

    Quarterfinals
    All Blacks – winner of Pool B
    Scotland or Japan – second in Pool A.

    England – winner of Pool C
    Wales – second in Pool D.

    Walabies – winner of Pool D
    Pumas – second in Pool C.

    Ireland – winner of Pool A
    Boks – second in Pool B.

    Semi-finals
    All Blacks
    England

    Wallabies
    Ireland

    The Wallaby prediction is based on Cheika whipping his Wallaby squad into international standard, far removed from their pitiful performances during this year’s Super Rugby.

    Michael Cheika laughing

    (AP Photo/Christophe Ena)

    It’s been embarrassing watching all five Australia franchises stumble and bumble through the tournament with precious few moments of quality.

    To prove the point, not one of the five are in the black on points for and against.

    The Brumbies are all square with 194 for, and 194 against.

    The Waratahs are 80 behind with 249 for, and 329 against.

    The Force is 82 adrift with 168 for, and 250 against.

    The Reds are 122 in debit with 204 for, and 326 against.

    And the Rebels are way behind by 238 with just 116 for, and 354 against.

    It’s been widely reported the Australians haven’t won a game in 17 against their Kiwi counterparts this season, but it’s never been mentioned by how much.

    Brumbies – 0/4 – 59 for – 109 against.
    Rebels – 0/4 – 50 – 205.
    Force – 0/3 – 39 – 85.
    Reds – 0/3 – 52 – 102.
    And Waratahs – 0/3 – 83 – 119.

    Those totals – 0/17 – 283 – 620, meaning the Kiwis have crushed the Australians by a massive 337 points.

    If the Australians don’t feel humiliated, they damn well should.

    The stats aren’t that much better against the South African Conference:

    Reds – 2/2 – 97 – 126.
    Force – 1/2 – 73 – 102.
    Rebels – 0/2/1 – 22 – 100.
    Brumbies – 0/1 – 22 – 27.
    And the Waratahs – 0/3 – 74 – 118.

    In 14 games the stats read 3/10/1 – 308 – 473 – the difference 165.

    So it won’t come as any surprise the biggest success has been within the Australian Conference, where it is of course dead square across the board.

    Waratahs – 3/1 – 92 – 92.
    Brumbies – 3/1 – 113 – 58.
    Rebels – 1/1 – 44 – 49.
    Force – 1/2 – 56 – 63.
    And the Reds – 0/3 – 55 – 98.

    Of the 16 games played within the Australian Conference it’s 8/8 and 360 – 360.

    Realistically, not one Australian side deserves to be in the play-offs, but the Conference winner automatically gets a start.

    But whoever it is won’t last long.

    Roll on 2019.

    David Lord
    David Lord

    David Lord was deeply involved in two of the biggest sporting stories - World Series Cricket in 1977 and professional rugby in 1983. After managing Jeff Thomson and Viv Richards during WSC, in 1983 David signed 208 of the best rugby players from Australia, New Zealand, Fiji, England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales and France to play an international pro circuit. The concept didn’t get off the ground, but it did force the IRB to get cracking and bring in the World Rugby Cup, now one of the world’s great sporting spectacles

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    The Crowd Says (128)

    • Roar Guru

      May 12th 2017 @ 7:32am
      Sam Taulelei said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:32am | ! Report

      Morning David

      Who’s to argue your point this far out from the tournament itself?

      In May 2013 who would have predicted the Wallabies would play the 2015 final given their group of death and current form.

      I did want to raise one concern about Wallaby selection for the future and that is – who will be Foley’s backup or replacement?

      Kurtley Beale could be manufactured as a backup but it’s not the best position to maximise his attacking skills.

      Foley’s recent concussion troubles is cause for concern because there is no science that can predict how long the recovery can take after another knock to the head, or worst case there is no recovery.

      There are two Kiwi 10’s playing for Aussie teams and Quade Cooper is a shadow of the player he once was.

      Is there enough time to develop and provide sufficient game time to a rookie?

      • May 12th 2017 @ 7:43am
        Sambo said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:43am | ! Report

        Could be Cooper Cronk if he ends up at the Waratahs next year.

        • May 12th 2017 @ 8:53am
          mania said | May 12th 2017 @ 8:53am | ! Report

          why ? havent aus learnt about leagees? they arent worth the money

          • May 12th 2017 @ 9:57am
            Akari said | May 12th 2017 @ 9:57am | ! Report

            Brad Thorn and SBW might disagree, mania, but then you’re talking about Oz experience. Andrew Walker was a success and Tuiqiri for a start.

            • May 12th 2017 @ 10:45am
              Muzzo said | May 12th 2017 @ 10:45am | ! Report

              But then again Akari, Brad Thorn came from a rugby background, where he used too, as a very young fella, watch his father go around, in Mosgiel, for his club Taieri, in the Dunedin club comp.

              • May 12th 2017 @ 12:08pm
                FARMER said | May 12th 2017 @ 12:08pm | ! Report

                Big Bad Brad Thorn ay…..Hell of a Rugby Player.. Couldn`t play League to save himself ..Too much of a lumbering log, zero leg speed …Never was an auto pick for the Origin teams .
                Even Wayne Bennett ( CLUB COACH) didn’t pick him when he was origin coach as he knew he was too much off a slug and Origin was way too fast for a Lumberer like him ..His Bronco teammates were automatic Origin pics Tallis, Petero, Webcke and Carroll ..These blokes carried him at Broncos.

                Great Rugby player DUD League player

              • May 12th 2017 @ 12:23pm
                Akari said | May 12th 2017 @ 12:23pm | ! Report

                Fair enough, Muzzo. I remember Thorn sacking himself from rugby after his first attempt as he wasn’t satisfied with how he was going in the game and returned to rugby league. It’s history now that he became a great in the game on his 2nd return and much admired to this day.

                I have a different recollection of Big Bad Brad Thorn as a rugby league player, Farmer.

              • May 12th 2017 @ 5:32pm
                Zero Gain said | May 12th 2017 @ 5:32pm | ! Report

                I think ‘dud’ is a massive exaggeration. A very good rugby league player by any standard.

            • May 12th 2017 @ 11:29pm
              English twizz said | May 12th 2017 @ 11:29pm | ! Report

              Jason Robinson

              • May 13th 2017 @ 7:58am
                Muzzo said | May 13th 2017 @ 7:58am | ! Report

                Yep English twizz, but Jason was not a patch, on Jonah’s sponsorship logo, in regards to wingers. Ask Mike Catt, I think he would verify that..

            • May 13th 2017 @ 7:56am
              Muzzo said | May 13th 2017 @ 7:56am | ! Report

              A DUD League player FARMER?????? Yeh right, so much a DUD that he continually represented, Queensland in Origin, & was a virtually guaranteed a permanent Kangaroo spot, during his time, at rep level.

              Akari, mate, I don’t think Thorn really sacked himself, as at the time, he was playing good rugby, but declined the offer of a Black jersey, due to himself wanting to try another season or so, back in league. As it is, Brad, is a fanatic fitness freak, who although being a Otago born & bred man, ended up playing for Canterbury, & the Crusaders. where as it is known that particular Union had far more to offer, than what the Otago union had to offer, at that time. Not so much now, as Otago, & the Highlanders, have finally got their act together. It must also be remembered, that Richie, was born, bred & educated, in Otago, Justin Marshall, born in Mataura, Chris Laidlaw, etc atc, all played for Canterbury. Yep I kinda wish we could claim Jonah, & Piney, but South Auckland & Te Kuiti, denied us of that. Cheers.

            • May 13th 2017 @ 9:03am
              YeahRight said | May 13th 2017 @ 9:03am | ! Report

              Akari, Andrew Walker was playing first grade for Randwick before he switched to League. He was coming back to Union so hardly a convert.

          • May 12th 2017 @ 10:10am
            Marto said | May 12th 2017 @ 10:10am | ! Report

            Which so called quality leaguies have the wallies had in the last 10 years ?? I`ll tell you ..None. .And we are poorer for it,..

            • May 12th 2017 @ 10:58am
              Jacko said | May 12th 2017 @ 10:58am | ! Report

              But he was a Rahrah junior anyway. But he is now way to old to start changing codes and the story was a media beatup and a massive joke. Union never ever considered signing this guy. The press thought it up and ran with a total BS story as usual.

            • May 12th 2017 @ 1:27pm
              Neil said | May 12th 2017 @ 1:27pm | ! Report

              Marto, hopefully there are more alternatives available this year than last. We don’t have an alternative to Foley, Quade is a shadow of his former self and is still injure. Johnno Lance, the only other alternative 10, has the same issues. I doubt whether Moore, Wallaby captain or not, will be the starting hooker, as Tolu Latu and probably Hanson look better options. We now have a greater depth of locks, so Simmons can happily retire and open a flower shop. We will continue to struggle with props, but we will probably make do. Fardy, Hooper and Higgers are more than competent at 6, 7, 8 and we have wings coming out the kazoo. Sure, there are roles to be filled, but I think you’ll find this year your complaints about the same old spuds might not necessarily be the case. I personally don’t expect to see Mumm or Douglas in the training squads, nor Horne. Anyway, we will see at the given appropriate time.

              • May 12th 2017 @ 2:39pm
                Marto said | May 12th 2017 @ 2:39pm | ! Report

                Neil I,don`t share your optimism as Chieka won`t pick Fardy Higginbotham in his 23, but he probably will in his initial squad to see who is the best trainer..hahahaha..

                Mumm will be in the final 23..
                Douglas definatley wont be..but I could be wrong.. Need some youth and weed out the older and non performing blokes this year..

                I`m being fair dinkum now.This is what I`d pick as our best 23 ..No Bias ..I can`t have Foley in the 23… I cannot have him.. He is SOOOO limited ..Folau is in bad form and is not a 15 ,so a compromise will be him being picked at 14..
                ( His best position )

                Beale has more upside at 10 so I`ll let Hodge kick all the goals.I hope he is fit ( Beale )

                1 Sio
                2 Latu
                3 Kepu
                4 Arnold
                5 Coleman
                6 Timani
                7 Hooper
                8 Higgers
                9 Genia
                10 Beale
                11 Hodge
                12 Kerevi
                13 Kurindrani
                14 Folau
                15 Hunt

                16 Hanson
                17 Thor
                18 Robertson
                19 Fardy
                20 Simmons
                21 DHP
                22 Cooper ( FIT) Foley if not …Lance is just ..BLAAAAAAAH !!
                23 Powell

              • May 12th 2017 @ 3:43pm
                Neil said | May 12th 2017 @ 3:43pm | ! Report

                Marto, again we now have some better options for Cheika and no doubt Mumm will be in his squad. We’ll have to agree to disagree on Foley and Beale hasn’t played 10 since high school, other than a couple of games here or there, I don’t think that is an option. Looking at your list, 1 through 8 is fine, other than putting Fardy in place of Timani simply because he is better around the ruck. Timani also still has a tendency for brain snaps. Regarding 9, Genia is.the first choice, but unless you’ve seen something I haven’t, he doesn’t look like being available for the June tests, but will be for the Rugby Championship. Therefore, we have a choice of Phipps, Powell or Jake Gordon. To me Powell and Jake Gordon are similar, but both are average defenders, so without Genia you could probably toss a coin on who would be starting and who would be on the bench. I’d also be putting Folau at wing, but Beale at 15 and Hunt at 12 with Kerevi or TK starting at 13 and the other on the bench. I don’t think Thor is ready for a test bench yet and Simmons shouldn’t even be in the squad. We have plenty of alternative locks and you would have to give the job to either Carter (who is surprising me this year with the quality of his line-out play and his general work around the field) or maybe a wildcard like Matt Philp from The Force. Timani on the bench, as with DHP, because if Foley starts he is an 80 minute player, but if injured, Beale at a pinch could go in to 10 and DHP to 15. Anyway, my thoughts.

              • May 14th 2017 @ 3:38pm
                Out of position!!! said | May 14th 2017 @ 3:38pm | ! Report

                What is with it with Aussie fans and our national coaching staff consistently picking players out of positions??! Hunt has thrived at Fullback so why select him at centre?!
                Do you see Steve Hanson throwing Ben Smith at centre? No! He has guys that have been playing and thriving in that position the entire rugby season!
                Agh.
                We need to select the best Australian player who has been thriving in their respected position.
                The only exception is Reece Hodge who could play anywhere in the backline

              • Roar Rookie

                May 12th 2017 @ 4:11pm
                Paul D said | May 12th 2017 @ 4:11pm | ! Report

                Neil, Gordon tackles at over 80%. One of the best rates of the Australian halves and better than both Aaron Smith and TJ Perenara.

                I recall him having a bad day in the office one game, but in another he made 12 of 13 tackles. His defence is fine, but he lacks experience. However I think this year with the “soft” June tests we need to blood some new guys. Whether that’s Powell, Gordon or both I don’t really mind.

              • May 12th 2017 @ 6:28pm
                Bring Back...? said | May 12th 2017 @ 6:28pm | ! Report

                Just an opinion:
                1. Kepu
                2. TPN
                3. Sio
                4. Coleman
                5. Carter
                6. Fardy
                7. McMahon (subject to injury)
                8. Timani
                9. Genia (if not available Louwrens, if not Powell/Gordon)
                10. Foley
                11. Folau
                12. Hunt
                13. Kerevi
                14. No idea (Speight?)
                15. DHP (assuming fit, if not Hodge).

                16. Latu
                17. Alatoa
                18. Next best prop
                19. Arnold
                20. Hooper
                21. Higginbotham
                22. Beale
                23. Reserve half.

                I see Hodge as a fullback in the Roger Gould mould. If he was smart, he’d work on his goal kicking like Johnny W used to and it would be impossible to leave him out!

            • May 12th 2017 @ 3:28pm
              Jeffrey said | May 12th 2017 @ 3:28pm | ! Report

              Marto, how can you say Falou has not been a quality player? Sure he’s battling atm, but he was world class at his best.

              • Roar Guru

                May 12th 2017 @ 3:40pm
                Timbo (L) said | May 12th 2017 @ 3:40pm | ! Report

                If form is not important, bring back Nick Farr-Jones in at 10.

                Geez, the only thing that should matter is how you are playing RIGHT NOW!

              • May 12th 2017 @ 5:35pm
                Zero Gain said | May 12th 2017 @ 5:35pm | ! Report

                He is a very good player. To say otherwise is very silly.

              • Roar Rookie

                May 12th 2017 @ 5:37pm
                piru said | May 12th 2017 @ 5:37pm | ! Report

                He’s nowhere near his best or the best in the country in his position

              • May 12th 2017 @ 8:38pm
                Jeffrey said | May 12th 2017 @ 8:38pm | ! Report

                Timbo,

                Read what Marto wrote. He said there has been no quality league players who have switched over during the last ten years. Form right now was not part of his requirement. Btw, Farr Jones wasn’t a 10…

            • May 13th 2017 @ 8:45am
              mzilikazi said | May 13th 2017 @ 8:45am | ! Report

              “Which so called quality leaguies have the wallies had in the last 10 years ?? I`ll tell you ..None. .And we are poorer for it,..”

              Marto, are you seriously saying that Folau is not a quality player ? I would suggest you cast your mind back to 2013……..he was, IMO, and immediate success, and went on to become, going into the last World Cup, a world class player.

              Sure, now he has seriously lost form, but he still remains a good player.

        • Roar Rookie

          May 12th 2017 @ 12:05pm
          Paul D said | May 12th 2017 @ 12:05pm | ! Report

          Hore has poured cod water on the Cronk story. It’s much like the Hayne story.

          “Not interested. Don’t know where you got that idea from. We’re maintaining faith in our pathways”

          • May 12th 2017 @ 1:01pm
            Sambo said | May 12th 2017 @ 1:01pm | ! Report

            Cheika’s endorsed Cronk as a possible Waratahs signing. He played rugby in his schoolboy days, would be more interesting to see how he goes than just signing on with Newcastle…

            If he makes a good fist of it, could possibly force out Beale or Foley. Or at the very least provide some extra motivation for them to play well.

            • Roar Rookie

              May 12th 2017 @ 1:18pm
              Paul D said | May 12th 2017 @ 1:18pm | ! Report

              Nothing of the sort. He responded to a question by saying he thought Cronk was a good player who’d have no trouble transitioning. If the Tahs want him then good on them. He said the ARU are not getting involved and it’s up to the Waratahs to decide what they do with recruiting. Andrew Hore has come out and publicly said no thanks. This is a non story.

              Some journalist or sideline commentator dreamt it up. Nobody with any actual skin in the game made any plans for an approach. Not from Cronk and not from NSWRU.

              • May 12th 2017 @ 7:16pm
                Bakkies said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:16pm | ! Report

                ‘ If the Tahs want him then good on them.’

                at 33 and with a signing embargo in place I don’t think so. The other teams would rightly kick off if they were allowed to sign him while they can’t even re-sign their existing squad players.

        • May 12th 2017 @ 7:14pm
          Bakkies said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:14pm | ! Report

          ‘Andrew Walker was a success’

          He returned to his roots though

          • May 12th 2017 @ 9:28pm
            soapit said | May 12th 2017 @ 9:28pm | ! Report

            started in rugby for randwick

            • May 13th 2017 @ 1:31am
              Bakkies said | May 13th 2017 @ 1:31am | ! Report

              I know and related to Lloyd Walker

              • May 13th 2017 @ 6:17pm
                soapit said | May 13th 2017 @ 6:17pm | ! Report

                yeah after posting i thought perhaps i’d misread your meaning

        • May 12th 2017 @ 8:41pm
          mzilikazi said | May 12th 2017 @ 8:41pm | ! Report

          I would think it very unlikely that Cronk will ever play Union. A league man through and through. Most likely he will retire.

          Actually just saw him on ABC news tonight signing “stuff” for fans in Brisbane…..and he was asked the question, and said ” I will not play Rugby Union next year “

      • May 12th 2017 @ 8:48am
        Frank O'Keeffe said | May 12th 2017 @ 8:48am | ! Report

        “In May 2013 who would have predicted the Wallabies would play the 2015 final given their group of death and current form.”

        If I may re-post something from another thread…

        I recall before the 2011 Rugby World Cup, everybody thought that Australia had an easy draw – there was only Ireland in their group that would be moderately difficult. Ireland beat Australia and Australia then had to face a brutal Test against South Africa (do we recall the beating McCabe received defending himself to a pulp?) and then they were annihilated by New Zealand in the semi-finals.

        I recall before the 2015 World Cup, Australia were in the group of death, the group that contained England and Wales. Australia beat both of them – England quite easily. From there on in the knock-out stage was much easier than New Zealand’s, although Australia nearly wet the bed against Scotland and were lucky to get away with that.

        My point is this: When you have a difficult group stage, you tend to have an easy knock-out stage. When you have an easy group stage, the knock-out stage becomes more difficult. The difficulty balances out in the end.

        Postscript: The way our Super rugby sides are performing right now, I wouldn’t get my hopes up too much. Cheika was criticised a lot last year, but it wasn’t his fault at all. How can Australia put together a side to compete against New Zealand when no Australian Super Rugby side has beaten a New Zealand Super Rugby side all year?

        If Cheika coaches the Wallabies to a World Cup in 2019 he’ll rank with Carwyn James, Fred Allen and Graham Henry, as far as I’m concerned.

        • Roar Guru

          May 12th 2017 @ 1:08pm
          Who Needs Melon said | May 12th 2017 @ 1:08pm | ! Report

          100% agree with all of this: the tough vs. easy pool thing. And especially the postscript. Spot on. Our expectations are in need of a massive reset.

          • May 12th 2017 @ 1:34pm
            Bring Back...? said | May 12th 2017 @ 1:34pm | ! Report

            Quite right Frank. It has surprised me over the last couple of weeks to see the Cheika haters acknowledging our awful super rugby form will make it difficult, nye on impossible, for Cheika to mould a competitive Wallaby team. Not sure why the same logic didn’t apply last year but let’s let by-gones be by-gones.

      • Roar Guru

        May 12th 2017 @ 1:55pm
        Nick Turnbull said | May 12th 2017 @ 1:55pm | ! Report

        Hi Sam,

        I agree that Foley is the standout and Cooper has played better, but I still think he’ll be on the bench. Others include Jono Lance, Matt Tomua, Jack Debrazcini and I’m keen to see how Mack Mason develops.

        • May 12th 2017 @ 7:37pm
          Bakkies said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:37pm | ! Report

          Toomua is ineligible and injured. He has only played 33 tests.

    • Roar Guru

      May 12th 2017 @ 7:42am
      Nobrain said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:42am | ! Report

      Morning Lord, it is incredible that you can make such a statement with more than two years to go. Anything can happen, hey , even Cheika is not the coach any longer by then. So I find it very ridiculus to be writing something like this. Hey, you may get lucky and get right, but it seems irresponsable to write England, Ireland , or some other nations out of the finals.

      • May 12th 2017 @ 9:14am
        jonnyacidseed said | May 12th 2017 @ 9:14am | ! Report

        Just a bit of a positive spin for Aussie rugby Nobrain. Nothing wrong with that considering that there hasnt been a lot to look forward to lately.
        Also, he does keep it very loose and qualifies it all in his postscript.

    • May 12th 2017 @ 7:58am
      mark said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:58am | ! Report

      With the form and tactics are players are playing, we would be hard pressed to get out of the qualifiers.

      We need a revolution in coaching and playing. The money is good for players and coaches. The lifestyle is good. The play is club standard.

      If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. However Australian rugby is broke right now. Time for change. Time for revolution. just like how the northern hemisphere was in rugby crisis many years ago. We need leadership with courage to think outside the box to revolutionise Australian rugby.

    • Roar Guru

      May 12th 2017 @ 7:59am
      Poth Ale said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:59am | ! Report

      I don’t think he’s made any statement. It’s just conjecture with the same assumption as everyone else that if games go with rankings then the 4 four semi finalists are the top 4 WR ranked teams. So what?

      May as well say that if the sun rises tomorrow there will be daylight somewhere.

      • Roar Guru

        May 12th 2017 @ 9:32am
        Machooka said | May 12th 2017 @ 9:32am | ! Report

        Correct Poth… but it’s nice to see a little something positive for a change 😉

    • May 12th 2017 @ 8:00am
      MH01 said | May 12th 2017 @ 8:00am | ! Report

      Geez if we are making whacky predictions , Tahs to win super rugby this year! This is fun .

      I have to say David and Spiro, you guys really jump on bandwagons, but like in the tahs situation when they go badly you two are first to get those daggers in.

      So talk them up, though a few losses in, the daggers will be out

      • May 12th 2017 @ 11:35am
        Cynical Play said | May 12th 2017 @ 11:35am | ! Report

        what about… ‘Reds for the spoon!’
        there, its said.

        • May 12th 2017 @ 1:09pm
          Adsa said | May 12th 2017 @ 1:09pm | ! Report

          Tahs to win super rugby – whacky prediction yes.
          Reds for the spoon – sadly Cynic I can say their is nothing whacky about that one at all.

          • May 12th 2017 @ 7:38pm
            Bakkies said | May 12th 2017 @ 7:38pm | ! Report

            The Tarts didn’t even retain their February title this year

    • May 12th 2017 @ 8:10am
      Jordan c said | May 12th 2017 @ 8:10am | ! Report

      Hyperbole

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