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West Coast Eagles vs Western Bulldogs: Friday Night Forecast

11th May, 2017
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The Bulldogs' Tom Boyd. (AAP Image/Tony McDonough)
Expert
11th May, 2017
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The Western Bulldogs return to the scene of a September sporting murder, taking on the West Coast Eagles in a game that will see the winner hold a top-four spot.

Last time they met, the Western Bulldogs ripped the hearts out of West Coast’s game day 22 in the middle of Subiaco Oval. With their bare hands. The 2016 elimination final, the first played under the new pre-finals bye structure, was a bitter defeat for the Eagles, who were heavy favourites against a battered, bruised and broken Dogs team.

This game has been discussed at length elsewhere so let’s save some space. Take it from me, it sucked, and was terrible, and I’m totally over it and don’t think about it once or twice a week.

As it stands, the teams placed fourth and fifth on the ladder through seven rounds open an intriguing round of football.

There’s substance everywhere you look: the Hawks have a chance to break out of the bottom four, the Pies face the Giants in Western Sydney (where they have had great success), the Dees and Crows, the league’s latest international experiment, the Swans and ‘Roos closing the round. For all of that, tonight is the only time two current finalists will face off.

Both teams have solid, not spectacular, form lines coming in, with three wins in their past four against a combination of average and good teams.

West Coast’s last start was meritorious for more reasons than one, while the Dogs got out of jail against a plucky Richmond side after just falling short against the Giants a week prior.

Neither team is a perfect picture of health, particularly in the ruck, where the four first choice stoppage artists are on the sidelines.

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It sets the stage for an interesting late change or two for both sides, foreshadowed by Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge at his pre-flight press conference yesterday.

While Beveridge and company’s personnel decisions are always fascinating, there is another layer of intrigue this week. They’re not afraid to throw convention out the window.

Exhibit A, the Dogs conceded every ruck contest bar one to first game ruckman Ivan Soldo in the first quarter last weekend.

The Dogs have made two forced changes and one half-forced change, with Jake Stringer and Josh Dunkley out with mid range injuries, and captain Robert Murphy given a week on the pine.

In come Lukas Webb and Bailey Dale, and remarkably Jack Redpath in his first AFL game back – after a very good showing in the VFL last week – from an ACL injury incurred in the middle of last year.

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The Eagles dropped Mark Hutchings, replacing him with youngster Liam Duggan. West Coast also made an interesting decision dropping Jonathon Giles for Fraser McInness (a very tall forward who moonlights as a ruckman), meaning Nathan Vardy will ruck for most of the game.

The Dogs have named Tom Boyd as the starting ruck; Zaine Cordy, named at centre half back, could spend time as the forward half ruckman but I doubt Redpath will be relied upon given it is his first AFL-level game back from a serious injury.

West Coast Eagles AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Tony McDonough)

The Xs and Os are a little difficult to parse then, given the strange team structure at the Dogs and potential for late changes on both sides. Still, there are some interesting contrasts.

Take West Coast’s defence, led this year by Interceptor in Chief Elliot Yeo and ably supported by Jeremy McGovern, Brad Shepherd Tom Barrass.

There are few ground ball-centric defenders in West Coast’s line-up (their smalls are aerialists in the main), while there are many ground ball-centric forwards lining up for the Western Bulldogs.

By selecting Cordy and Redpath, it appears the Dogs have thought about how they can negate one or two of West Coast’s interceptors while also clearing the way for their medium and small forwards inside the Eagles defensive 50.

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Alternatively, Redpath is a red herring and the Dogs intend to play the travelling emergency Declan Hamilton.

The real interest in this game lies in the middle. Rucking will be interesting, but so will the way both teams try to use their best midfielders to their advantage.

Take West Coast’s Sam Mitchell. He is a prime candidate for a Tom Liberatore pressure fest. When he has played, Mitchell has been critical to the Eagles’ stoppage set ups, linking up with Luke Shuey or Matt Priddis as they gather the ball, or hovering a disposal away and setting the play.

Or take Marcus Bontempelli, the man controlling the Dogs’ play between the arcs and spending more time forward as a change up. The Eagles don’t have a matchup that immediately comes to mind – other than Yeo, who is about the same pace as Bontempelli and at least as talented in the air.

Eagles coach Adam Simpson would sacrifice some intercept ability on the half back line when Bontempelli plays through the middle, but could negate Bontempelli’s influence when he goes forward. It’s an interesting decision to make, particularly given Bontempelli’s influence seems to grow as games progress.

Marcus Bontempelli Tom Liberatore Western Bulldogs AFL 2016

(AAP Image/Craig Golding)

Outside of the peak of both lineups, there are plenty of interesting matchups to sort out. Last time they met the Dogs eviscerated the Eagles’ midfield as a unit, and they will have designs on doing the same again this evening.

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West Coast’s home ground advantage is strong. History says it is worth about four goals. The Eagles have scored 103 points per game at home this season, a score the Dogs have bested twice this year (against Sydney and Brisbane, who are currently 17th and 18th).

In their last trip to Perth, against the Dockers in Round 3, the Dogs scored 73 points. The high level maths alone suggests this will be a difficult game for the Dogs to win.

We also said that about last year’s elimination final.

Still, tonight, West Coast are in the box seat, and if they at a minimum break even through the middle of the ground should have the bookends covered. There is potential that this one gets closer, but all things considered, West Coast will win by 24 points.

That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?

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