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Evidently, ten months is a long time in football. In Round 17 last year, Sydney and Hawthorn faced off in a top two showdown, the winner to go to the top of the ladder with five rounds remaining. Tonight, the winner will move as high as 12th.
How the mighty have fallen. Hawthorn and Sydney’s collective collapse is amongst the most shocking football tales in recent memory; it would have been strange to see one of them dip out of the top eight, but both at the same time?
In recent weeks there has been something of a turn, with Sydney winning three on the trot and Hawthorn triumphant in three of their past five games. However, two of those wins came against Brisbane, while the Swans lost to Carlton and the Hawks to Collingwood. Theirs are a collectively difficult form line to read.
Hawthorn’s biggest concern tonight, and going forward, is the unavailability of many of its players. Last weekend the Hawks’ team had 800 games less experience on the field than in their semi-final loss to the Western Bulldogs, while it was about a year younger on average than their Round 1 side from this year.
What’s remarkable is despite the long list of absentees and departures, the Hawks were still the second oldest and most experienced team in the competition. Yeesh.
The Hawks are giving another two youngsters a go tonight, with rookie-listed James Cousins earning a pre-match elevation and debut alongside the glorious moniker Dallas Willmore. Kaiden Brand also comes back in, with Billy Hartung, Kurt Heatherley and Will Langford omitted.
Sydney has made one change: first-year player Oliver Florent comes in for Harry Cunningham, who has a foot injury.
Given the state of Hawthorn’s playing stocks, and more generally their poor start to the season, it’s difficult to foresee a way for them to win this evening.
(AAP Image/Joe Castro)
The task of containing Sydney’s tall forward line looks too great given the precipitous decline of Josh Gibson and relatively youth of the rest of Hawthorn’s line up.
It will prove a positive learning experience for the promising Ryan Burton, but I can imagine Lance Franklin is licking his lips at the prospect of an ill-suited Hawks back six.
Indeed, Hawthorn have named Burton at centre half back, alongside part-time defenders (generous description) Taylor Durea, Shaun Burgoyne and Ricky Henderson. Daniel Howe has been named in the midfield but that is surely a temporary move.
Sydney’s defence is anything but unsettled. Dane Rampe returned to the line up last week, the last critical cog to re-join after the Swans’ horror start.
Sydney’s defence had a sense of normality as a result, the Swans able to hold St Kilda to just 68 points on 47 inside 50s and 44 minutes of possession.
Rampe himself didn’t have a huge game from a numbers perspective (four marks, six spoils and two intercepts) but those around him had more fun: Nic Newman, Jake Lloyd and Heath Grundy had nine, eight and seven intercept possessions each respectively.
It looks from here like an interesting part of the ground, given the Hawks have access to their full first choice forward line bar Cyril Rioli.
It could have been much worse had Paul Puopolo and Jack Gunston both missed the game as looked likely in the dying stages against the Pies last weekend.
Hawthorn’s forward line looks tall with Ty Vickery, James Sicily and Jarryd Roughead, but in this case it matches up well.
It likely won’t matter. After sluggish starts, Sydney’s trio of top line midfielders have regained form, impacting games as we have grown accustom.
Josh Kennedy won 35 and 37 disposals in the past two weeks against North Melbourne and St Kilda, kicking a goal himself in the process. He has resumed his role as distributor in chief.
Luke Parker exploded for 36 disposals, 20 contested possessions and two goals against the ‘Roos. Dan Hannebery had 30 disposals, eight tackles, 12 marks and six inside 50s; the consummate Hannebery game, linking front and back halves with powerful running.
(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
With these guys back doing what they do, the rise of Jake Lloyd and Zak Jones means Sydney’s midfield once again looms as one of the most difficult match ups in the competition.
The Swans play with pace, which was Hawthorn’s kryptonite when they were performing at their peak – doubly so now in their current malaise.
It really is that simple tonight. I’m loathe to pick ten goal margins, but boy it feels like one is coming up tonight. It’s the Swans by 66.
Sydney’s form begs the question – can the Bloods make an unlikely run from 0-6 to a finals position? It is possible.
A win tonight would put Sydney level with Melbourne on four wins, and a big win could see them temporarily take their spot in 11th on the ladder.
Depending on the weekend’s other results (say if the Dogs, St Kilda or Richmond were to lose), Sydney could be as few as one win out of eighth spot – in spite of an 0-6 start.
The Swans have their mid-season bye in Round 11, but return to play the Western Bulldogs, Richmond and Essendon in successive weeks.
They happen to be the teams that could be one win above Sydney come the end of this week. On current form, and with tonight’s pasting in their recent history, the Swans may start as favourites across that slate.
All of a sudden, Sydney are back in the game. Lucky they didn’t take the six steps to tanking perfection after all. Hawthorn though? They may be reading up as we speak.
That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?