So, here we are again, forlornly staring down a magnificent Queensland side and hoping that New South Wales will somehow pull off a miracle win and steal back the shield that has only been seen in the company of Maroons for the past decade and a bit.
But there’s a different script this year. Those looks have turned from forlorn to opportunistic, the Maroons are vulnerable and a task that has seemed miraculous in nature for years now looks entirely achievable.
That’s it, folks. The New South Wales Blues are going to win Origin 1.
For the first time in recent memory, they’re going to have the right team running out on the paddock on Wednesday night; there’s no Robbie Farah, no Josh Reynolds, no other serviceable club players who just aren’t up to scratch come Origin time.
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That’s not to say the team’s perfect. Aaron Woods should buy himself a lottery ticket based on the luck he received in edging out Paul Vaughan. Brett Morris, for all his experience at Origin level, is also fortunate to be in possession of another sky blue jersey.
But other than that, the selectors deserve plenty of praise, because this is a side capable of stealing Game 1 in the Maroons’ back yard.
Morris aside, the backline is full of players capable of breaking the game wide open. James Tedesco mightn’t be in the finest club form, but he oozes class. Blake Ferguson is a regular instalment in the Kangaroos side, as is Josh Dugan. Jarryd Hayne has shown time and time again he is a genuine Origin matchwinner.
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In the halves, James Maloney is a winner. When he was at the Warriors, a team whose main talent is not making the finals, they made it to the grand final. At the Roosters, he won a premiership, then he repeated the trick at the Sharks last year. That’s not a coincidence, that’s a damn fine footballer.
And there’s Mitchell Pearce. He’s been the most maligned player to wear sky blue in the past decade, and not been for lack of competition. But he’s been in excellent form this year. He’s guided the Roosters right up towards the top of the ladder. Hell, he even kicked a game-winning field goal, something that once looked about as likely as him leading New South Wales to an Origin series win.
See? Miracles do happen.
This time, Pearce is blessed enough to be playing the meanest forward pack the Blues have rolled out in years.
Woods’ honest toiler tendencies will be more than made up for by Andrew Fifita’s barnstorming brilliance. The Blues’ back row is devastating.
On the interchange bench, New South Wales have a clear advantage. I’ll take Jack Bird, Wade Graham, David Klemmer and Jake Trbojevic over Queensland’s rotation of Michael Morgan (read: Anthony Milford), Sam Thaiday, Aidan Guerra and Jacob Lillyman.
On paper, the Blues have the stronger side. In years past, that wouldn’t have been enough to topple the Maroons, particularly in their own backyard. But this Maroons team isn’t what it once was.
There’s no Greg Inglis or Matt Scott, both of whom were struck down early in the season with season-ending injuries. For some inexplicable reason, there’s no Valentine Holmes. There’s no Billy Slater, despite his ominous form and impeccable Origin record. Many a New South Welshman let out a sigh of relief when the Storm fullback was omitted from Queensland’s side.
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Most significantly, there’s no Johnathan Thurston. Thurston’s consistent brilliance in the past decade has been unparalleled on either side of the Origin divide. With him out, suddenly Queensland don’t seem so invincible. Suddenly they don’t possess a playmaker whose class is capable of patching over any shortcomings the side may have.
Well, they still have one who’s pretty damn close. But for all his excellence, Cooper Cronk is no Johnathan Thurston. And Michael Morgan, who the grapevine tells us will start on Wednesday, is certainly not the peer of his Cowboys teammate, class player though he is.
Thurston’s injury has given some sense of parity to the halves battle between the Blues and Maroons for the first time since some bloke called Johns retired. And while Queensland still have the edge there and at hooker, the difference isn’t an insurmountable one.
And when you consider the Blues’ better back row, backline and bench, it’s clear the New South Welshman have the better of the two teams. It’s as simple as that.
And that’s why they’re going to win.
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