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2017 State Of Origin: My Game 1 preview

Origin is back baby! (AAP Image/Dean Lewins)
Roar Guru
30th May, 2017
1

The wait is almost over, and the battle is about to begin!

It is the start of the 2017 State Of Origin series between the two great states of Queensland and New South Wales. The first game of the series takes place at arguably (mostly by Queensland supporters) the home of State Of Origin, Suncorp Stadium (Lang Park) in Brisbane tonight.

The Cauldron is set to erupt once again as the Maroons and the Blues go head-to-head for the 109th time in State Of Origin history.

State of Origin Game 1 coverage
» The definitive Origin 1 stats preview
» Where Game 1 will be won and lost
» Prichard: The Blues know they can win. It’s up to them to actually do it
» Origin expert tips and predictions
» Why the Blues will win
» Why Queensland will win
» Origin 1 margin, man of the match and first try scorer predictions

In the previous 108 matches since State Of Origin began in 1980, Queensland have won 58 times, New South Wales have won 48 times, and there have been two draws in the history of the contest.

However, Queensland have won 22 out of the last 32 matches against New South Wales, including eight of their last nine matches at Suncorp Stadium.

In terms of series wins, in the 35 series played (1982-2016) between the two great states, the Maroons have won 20, the Blues have won 13, and there have been two drawn series.

However, Queensland have won ten out of the last 11 Origin series, and New South Wales have only won one Origin series since Andrew Johns retired from State Of Origin at the end of the 2005 series.

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Since the start of 2006, the Blues have used nine players at halfback, compared to the four players the Maroons have used at halfback, and the Blues will be relying on one of those nine players to end the No.7 curse for New South Wales in Mitchell Pearce.

Pearce has only won four times out of his 15 appearances for the Blues, but comes into the 2017 series as a changed man after cleaning up his off-field behaviour. He has found a new-found confidence on the field, something which New South Wales hopes can catapult them to only their second series victory in 12 years.

Mitchell Pearce Sydney Roosters NRL Rugby League 2017

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Looking at the two sides for Game One, compared to the two sides who started in Game 3 in 2016, Queensland have retained 12 of the team that played in Game 3 last year, with only Gavin Cooper missing out due to form.

New South Wales have retained 11 of the 17 who played in Game 3 in 2016, with Matt Moylan (reserve), Robbie Farah and James Tamou all missing out due to form.

This means that both teams will be fielding two players (Anthony Milford and Dylan Napa for Queensland, Nathan Peats and Jake Trbojevic for New South Wales) who will be making their State Of Origin debuts in Game 1 of the 2017 series tonight.

However, the key battle of tonight’s first game of the 2017 State Of Origin series will be how the youthful, but inexperienced forward pack for New South Wales matches up against the ageing, but experienced forward pack for Queensland.

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Looking at the Blues starting forward pack (Aaron Woods, Nathan Peats, Andrew Fifita, Boyd Cordner, Josh Jackson, and Tyson Frizell), as well as the three players on their bench who are regular forwards for their club’s in the National Rugby League (NRL) (David Klemmer, Wade Graham, and Jake Trbojevic), they are all 27 years of age or younger, and are all heading, or are in the prime of their careers.

However, experience for New South Wales in the forwards is an issue with these nine players having only played a combined total of 1065 NRL games, 37 Origin games, and 44 Test Matches for Australia.

Comparing this to the Maroons starting forward pack (Dylan Napa, Cameron Smith, Nate Myles, Josh Papalii, Matt Gillett, and Josh McGuire), as well as their three regular forwards on their bench (Sam Thaiday, Aidan Guerra, and Jacob Lillyman), six of their nine forwards are aged 28 years of age or over, which is concerning in comparison with the Blues.

In addition to this, a couple of their key forwards are in questionable form, most notably Nate Myles and Jacob Lillyman coming under the most scrutiny.

Cameron Smith of the Maroons

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

However, Queensland have the experience in the forwards, with these nine players having played a combined total of 1775 NRL games, 146 Origin games, and 111 Test Matches for Australia.

With the experience or lack of experience in the backlines for both the Maroons and the Blues, it is going to be intriguing to see how Anthony Milford, who replaces the injured Johnathan Thurston, goes on his State Of Origin debut. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pressure of this big occasion, and likewise, how and whether Mitchell Pearce can handle the pressure of expectation to become the long-term No.7 for New South Wales.

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In terms of determining how State Of Origin I will be played, the statistics tend to tell the story.

In 12 out of the last 18 State Of Origin matches, including ten out of the last 15, and eight out of the last 12 matches, the total match points score has been under 40 points.

When you look at historic figures of previous opening games of a State Of Origin series, since the four-point try was introduced in 1983, 25 out of those opening 34 games to a State Of Origin series have had a total match points score of under 40 points, including the last six opening games to a State Of Origin series.

In terms of the margin between the two teams, in 30 out of the last 39 State Of Origin matches, including in 16 out of the last 19 Origin matches, it has been a 1-12 margin between the two teams, including in the last 13 opening games of a State Of Origin series.

So, in terms of my tip, I sense New South Wales are on the rise, and are perfectly poised to snatch Queensland’s crown. However, do the Maroons veterans have one last great series left in them?

The jury is still out on that one, but not on my verdict for Game 1 of the 2017 State Of Origin series.

I tip the Blues to win Game 1 by six points in a low-scoring match.

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