Last night the world’s second most important event started: in 2017 the top eight cricketing nations will battle for the coveted Champions Trophy.
Just as Kane Williamson said, there is no room for complacency, and being conservative only means you’ll be under fire from ball one – and losing the first match makes a semi-final berth far less likely.
In a tournament like this momentum matters. A winning team must be backed by momentum. After analysing the teams on paper, based on their form over past six to 12 months England, Australia, India and South Africa are the four teams most likely to make it to the semi-finals.
England looks to have the most balanced batting and bowling attack. With an improved Ben Stokes from the recently concluded IPL, the consistent Chris Woakes, the returned great Mark Wood, a wicket-taker like Adil Rashid and golden-armed Mooen Ali, England’s bowling looks menacing.
The fact that England could defend seven runs off six balls against a team like South Africa shows how good they are, and in their own backyard they become all the more dangerous, and with match winners like Joe Root, Eoin Morgan, Jos Butler, Jason Roy on the side, their batting also threatens to take the game away from the opposition.
Moeover, with young players in the side, their fielding will always amongst the best, hence England should believe they can take a step further than their 2013 campaign.
Australia will always be one of favourites coming into a 50-over tournament. With the dangerous Warner-Finch combination at the top, in-form Smith to follow and great hitters like Glenn Maxwell, Matthew Wade and Travis Head in the team, Australia’s batting line-up is well sorted. They showed how competitive a side they are in a warm-up match against Sri Lanka, when they were chasing 319.
Their fielding will always be top notch, while Starc, Hazlewood, Pat Cummins and James Pattinson can easily win a match single-handedly on their own. This lethal combination makes the current world champions favourites to defend the title.
(Image: AAP)
India has the same core of batting line-up that won the Champions Trophy last time around: Dhawan-Sharma at the top, then Virat Kohli and MS Dhoni.
But this time around their bowling looks all the more menacing. Jasprit Bumrah has come out of nowhere to show the nerves to bowl at a crucial juncture of the game, be it in the IPL or for his national side. More often than not he has come out on top.
Ashwin-Jadeja can be expected to wreak havoc if the pitch offers some assistance to them. Bhuvaneshwar Kumar will swing the ball both ways at the top. Shami will provide the support as left-arm bowler while Umesh Yadav, who has become a much improved bowler, now has much more control over where he bowls.
India’s fielding in last 12 months has been outstanding, which means it won’t be surprising to see India defend their crown.
South Africa has always had the team, but their choker tag seems to hurt them at a crucial junctures. Their star-studded batting line-up featuring Quinton De Kock, Faf Du Plessis, AB De Villers, Hashim Amla and David Millers and the bowling team boasts Morne Morkel, Chris Morris, Imran Tahir, Wayne Parnell, Kagiso Rabada. South Africa are well balanced. They can always rely on their fielding.
Despite all this, however, the inaugural Champions Trophy winners will need to be fearless if they intend to shed off chokers tag.
New Zealand will bat, bowl and field well on any given day. They really fight, and they fight hard, but the absence of Brendon McCullum at the top has taken away their spark.
But New Zealand does have the arsenal to surprise everyone. Martin Guptill, Kane Willamson, Ross Taylor and Corey Anderson are no pushovers. Trent Boult-Tim Southee is the most lethal combo in the world, and getting past their spell will be decisive for any team. New Zealand’s chances of winning the trophy cannot be written off.
Sri Lanka and Pakistan’s form in the last year or so in ODI cricket has not been too good. Pakistan recently lost Sharjeel Khan to the matchfixing saga. Sri Lanka still looks in transition after the retirement of Mahela Jayawardena, Kumar Sangakarra and Tillakaratne Dilshan.
Bangladesh really has done well in last two years or so in home condition and in the 2015 world cup, but their inexperienced bowling could cost them the match, just like they lost when they had Pakistan 242-8 chasing 320-odd but still gave away the match.
Hence Australia, South Africa, India and England should make it through to the semi-finals. The winner will probably be decided by who hold their nerve best on the day.
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