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How can Australia make the Champions Trophy semi-finals?

Can Australia win for a third time in the Champions Trophy? (AAP Image/SNPA, Ross Setford)
Expert
5th June, 2017
19

To say it’s been a frustrating Champions Trophy so far would be an understatement. Australia have had both of their games against New Zealand and Bangladesh washed out due to rain, and the situation to make the semi-finals is a tricky one. Lucky for you, The Roar have it all figured out.

Halfway through the Group A matches and it’s a shemozzle. Australia are on two points with their two washed out matches.

Let’s be honest, New Zealand would have beaten them comprehensively – but then again Australia would have beaten Bangladesh comprehensively.

Anyway, here’s how the group stands at the moment.

Completed matches

England defeated Bangladesh by eight wickets
It was a convincing start for the hosts as they limited the Tigers to 305, then chased it down with 16 balls to spare and only two wickets lost.

New Zealand No-result against Australia
New Zealand were on top, then they got flattened for 291 by Josh Hazlewood and his six wickets. With the game already down to 46 overs, Australia were 3 for 53 off nine when rain stopped play.

Bangladesh No-result against Australia
The Tigers were knocked over by Australia for just 182, with Tamim Iqbal making 95 and Mitchell Starc taking 4 for 29. Australia were 1 for 83, just four overs short of the required 20 for a match to be constituted when rain hit.

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Remaining matches

June 6 – England verus New Zealand at Sophia Gardens
June 9 – New Zealand versus Bangladesh at Sophia Gardens
June 10 – England versus Australia At Edgbaston

Current ladder

Pos. Played Team Won Lost No result Points Net Run Rate
1 1 England 1 0 0 2 0.407
2 2 Australia 0 0 2 2 0
3 1 New Zealand 0 0 1 1 0
4 2 Bangladesh 0 1 1 1 -0.407

So, what happens now?

If England beat New Zealand
England win and they are through to the semi-finals on four points, no matter what happens.

A loss for the Kiwis is potentially disastrous though as it would leave them on one point, one behind Australia with a game to play and needing Australia to lose to England on the weekend.

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If New Zealand beat England
This is where the fun begins. If New Zealand win, they would shoot to the top of the group on three points, one ahead of both England and Australia and from there, be in control of their own destiny.

It would essentially mean the Australia versus England game on Saturday would be a quarter-final come early, while Bangladesh would also still be in the picture if they found a way to edge past New Zealand.

One game out of the way and already a bunch of different scenarios. Who is still with us?

If England and New Zealand are rained out?
England would go to three points and still control their own destiny with a superior net run rate over all the other sides in the group.

New Zealand would be on two points, equal with Australia on both points and net run rate.

New Zealand and Bangladesh play on Saturday
If New Zealand find a way over England on Tuesday, they hold their own destiny. A win over Bangladesh puts them on five points and straight through to the semi-finals.

However, New Zealand lose to England tonight and they must win, then hope things go their way to make it – i.e. England beat Australia to leave them on two points.

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Bangladesh are also still in the hunt if England win on Tuesday. It would put them on the same as New Zealand heading into their pivotal match, and a win over them would mean they go to three, New Zealand would be eliminated and Australia would need to beat England just to get over the Tigers and into the finals. Still following us?

Australia play England on Sunday
We know that Australia will enter the final game of the tournament on two points, with a net run rate of zero. There are no if’s and no but’s – they must beat England to make the semi-finals.

England may already be through by that point if they get the better of New Zealand, however a loss means they would probably also need to win.

But, what happens if every game from here to the end is rained out?
No, seriously – what happens? We don’t know. My suggestions is for a super over to be bowled on the morning of the semi-final between Australia and New Zealand, who would be both tied on three points.

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