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Thursday Night Forecast: Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs

7th June, 2017
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Lance Franklin of the Swans celebrates after scoring a goal. (AAP Image/David Moir)
Expert
7th June, 2017
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Thursday night football brings with it match of the round status this week, between two teams that have meandered through the first half of the season after starting the year with lofty goals in mind.

Sydney has been the most disappointing side in the competition, a statement that brooks no argument. Widely picked as a top two finisher, and certainly a lock for the top four, they have stumbled their way to a 3-7 record, currently occupying 16th spot on the ladder.

Infamously losing their first six games, they looked to get their season back on track with three wins on the trot, but fluffed their lines against Hawthorn at the SCG in Round 10, and are thus coming off their worst loss of the year.

Interestingly though, and we get a hint of this through their strong percentage, Sydney’s three wins have all been by greater margins than any of the Bulldogs six.

The Dogs have never really clicked into gear through to this stage of 2017. They won four of their first five matches, but it was amidst an easy draw to open the season, particularly so for a reigning premier. It looked soft on paper, and it played out even friendlier.

The Bulldogs have only won two of their last five matches, but were far from disgraced in any of their losses – going down fighting to GWS, West Coast and Geelong, who were all enjoying significant home ground advantage.

They are working into the season, but still, the fact remains that the Dogs have played five matches against current top eight sides, and only won one, and even that, against Richmond, came after trailing for 85 per cent of the match.

In their favour is they are coming off their best performance of the season, beating St Kilda by a handsome 40-point margin, and winning each quarter along the way, a first for them this year.

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Bob Murphy Western Bulldogs AFL 2017 tall

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

The Bulldogs and Swans have met four times since Luke Beveridge took over as senior coach of the former, and the Dogs hold a 4-0 record. Two of those wins have been at the SCG, so tonight’s ground holds no fears.

The average winning margin in those games has been only 13 points, so it hardly speaks to a Dogs side that has a strong football edge, but there may be a mental one.

In three of those four defeats, Sydney were in front at various stages in the last quarters, and in the other, the grand final, they were within a point. Is it just a coincidence that on all four occasions, the Dogs were able to dig deeper and find a way to win?

It takes a certain mental resolve to win the premiership the way the Dogs did last year, the first team this century to take out the flag after finishing outside the top four, and winning all four finals as underdog, travelling the breadth of the country to do so.

On the other hand, Sydney have become perennial chokers since their grand final win in 2012. The Swans finished top four from 2013 through to 2016, twice on top of the ladder, but have no premiership medals to show for it, despite the addition of a talent like Buddy Franklin through that time.

A finals record of five wins and seven losses in the last four years is underwhelming given the talent John Longmire has had access to. A player like Tom Mitchell was wrongly seen as surplus to requirements, and has left a bigger hole than was anticipated.

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Sydney have conceded an average of 67-72 points per game in the last three seasons, but this year are letting through 90 points a game thanks to their early season woes. And they’ve only played four sides currently in the eight too, so have hardly been taxed by the fixture.

Can the Dogs take advantage of a more lax Swans defence? They are ranked a lowly 14th for points for, not an unusual position for them given they were ranked 12th on the way to the flag last season. They certainly found more fire-power in the finals, through a motley array of types.

This season, Jake Stringer leads the Dogs goal-kicking, with Marcus Bontempelli a clear second. To the naked eye, the Bont seems to be spending much more time forward than ideal, but his ability to win contests, apply pressure, create opportunities and pull off a superstar move in a big moment is valuable wherever he is placed.

Lance Franklin Sydney Swans AFL Indigenous Round 2017 tall

(AAP Image/David Moir)

Luke Beveridge has always rung the changes in his time at the Dogs, and there has usually been a steady stream of injuries to first-choice players, so his teams have always had a make-shift feel. Sydney’s side also has a cobbled-together look, and you’d have got long odds at the start of the season on both Kurt Tippett and Aliir Aliir not getting a game on form at this point of the year.

Looking at the named teams, player for player, line for line, area for area, and it’s hard to find an edge to one team over another.

The Swans have Franklin and Heeney, the Dogs have Stringer and Bontempelli, so match-winners aren’t in short supply. Both midfields bat deep, and they each have supplementary forward options that can pose problem for the respective backlines.

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This match shapes as a bare-knuckle street-fight, and in that scenario, I want to be with Luke Beveridge over John Longmire.

The Western Bulldogs by 11 points.

That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?

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