The biggest raceday on the Queensland racing calendar is Stradbroke Day, and it comes around this Saturday on a brilliant card of racing at Doomben, with the Queensland Derby and JJ Atkins providing super support acts.
I’ve been seeing them nicely in the majors over the past couple of weeks, so here is my look at the key races.
Race 4 (13:05): Bundaberg Rum Dane Ripper Stakes 1350 metres
I think the $4 on offer for Raiment is crazy overs. She is a high quality filly who should be forgiven for the Eagle Farm run. We know she is explosive, she draws perfectly to either lead or box seat whatever the case. If she brings her best, she wins.
Sold For Song is ticking over beautifully for the Tatts Tiara, but now that it will be held here I have my doubts – but she is racing so well at the moment. With a firm surface I want to give Madotti a look at $61, better with others. She is lethal on top of the track and can bounce back hard here.
Raiment on top, ahead of Sold For Song, Madotti and Prompt Response.
Race 6 (14:20): BMW JJ Atkins 1600 metres
The $2.50 all in for Melody Belle looked a steal, so here’s hoping she does her job and greets the judge first. Yes, you can forgive horses for that Eagle Farm track, but the way I see it, she was first up and she spanked them. She has enormous upside, so with normal luck she wins.
Capital Gain was making good ground late on Melody Belle, and while he doesn’t have the upside, he will eat up the mile. Tangled from all reports worked very well earlier this week, and if you can overlook the run at Eagle Farm, his two efforts prior were outstanding.
Melody Belle a special, to beat Capital Gain, Tangled and Aloisia.
Race 7 (15:00): Channel Seven Queensland Derby 2200 metres
Had this race been at Eagle Farm, Black On Gold would be $101 in my eyes, but it’s at Doomben and on a firmer surface, so I’m going to keep the faith with him. I’ve been talking him up as a Derby prospect since his brilliant first up win at Newcastle, and he has been most effective on dry ground – he just needs luck from the sticky gate to run a beauty.
No horse has done the SA-Queensland Derby double, but Volatile Mix has a great chance. His grand prix effort was very good. Just a slight query on the tighter track. X-Factor for mine is Rockstar Rebel. Lifted to win last start at Ballarat by Brad Rawiller and that could well do his confidence the world of good.
Each way with Black On Gold, over Volatile Mix, Rockstar Rebel and Ana Royale.
Race 8 (15:40): UBET Stradbroke Handicap 1350 metres
I’m amazed that people are putting the pen through Clearly Innocent. Hello? Did anyone see how he spanked them in the Kingsford Smith? Yes, most horses didn’t handle it and, yes, he’s great on wet ground, but keep in mind that some of his most explosive or impressive wins have come on dry ground – for example, the 2016 Luskin Star. Gate 20 is an issue, but I think that can be overcome due to the brutal speed this will be run at with a couple of headstrong horses only knowing one way to run.
Derryn has been up a long time but has always been thereabouts, and his effort in the 10,000 metres here was a beauty behind Redzel. Forgotten horse could well be In Her Time. Been freshened up since the 10,000 metres and though drawn wide, I can see her sliding over nicely via Hooked and finding a good spot just off the speed.
Clearly Innocent on top for me in the big one, to beat Derryn, In Her Time and Mackintosh.
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