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AFL Trade Rumours: The CBA's done, so now it's time to get real

Expert
20th June, 2017
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(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Expert
20th June, 2017
112
2211 Reads

After a long wait the AFL have finally locked in a new CBA to govern the league from now until the end of 2022, and the impact this deal will have on trading and free agency this October is big.

To start with, those many players who have cited the wait for a new collective bargaining agreement as a reason for holding off contract talks will now have no reason not to make some progress, and over the next few weeks we’ll see those who are genuinely ready to re-sign separated from those just using it to pass some time.

Two elite young players who would be the target of just about every club in the land if publicly known to be on the table who have used that very line are Adelaide’s Jake Lever – yesterday included in my mid-season All-Australian team! – and Collingwood’s Brodie Grundy.

There has been little to no talk about both of these players among the year’s AFL trade rumours and that generally indicates that the industry at large expects them to re-sign with their current clubs, which I suspect they almost certainly will.

Some other players to keep an eye on here would be a trio of Bombers in Joe Daniher, David Zaharakis and Darcy Parish, as well as Jack Billings at St Kilda, Steven May at Gold Coast, Zak Jones at Sydney, and Daniel Rioli at Richmond.

Again, my current expectation would be that all these players will opt to re-sign with their current clubs – with May and Jones probably the most likely to consider other offers, but still very likely to stay – but if we’ve heard nothing of new contracts within the next month or so it’ll be time to raise eyebrows.

David Zaharakis Essendon Bombers AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

Of course, contract watch will also continue for big free agents Nat Fyfe and Dustin Martin, as well as the out-of-contract Josh Kelly.

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These are they players who, if the move clubs this year, stand to benefit the most from a salary cap that has increased by 20 per cent overnight.

There’s a lot of maths involved in a new CBA, and there are reasons that I’m a writer rather than a maths teacher, but the short version of what’s happening is that the amount clubs are able to spend on players has rapidly shot up, and the amount they spend on what they’ve currently got may take some time to catch up.

Some players had ‘uplift clauses’ in their current contracts that will see them automatically get the 20 per cent pay rise, but not all do, and it has been said on Footy Classified that Adelaide and West Coast in particular have not included them in any of their contracts.

Clubs still need to pay 95 per cent of what the new salary cap is, so those who don’t meet that amount through their current payments and uplift clauses will need to renegotiate some of their existing contracts. Of course, that could be a simple as heavily front-loading some of the long-term deals their star players are on.

It also means that clubs who were already running at the lower scale of the salary cap this year – like St Kilda, Carlton or North Melbourne – or clubs who are set to say goodbye to some veterans at the end of the year – like Essendon or Hawthorn – could have enough salary cap room banked to be very aggressive this year.

That, of course, is where the likes of Fyfe, Martin and Kelly, as the most desirable prospects on the market, come in. All three are likely to be on deals worth $1 million a season next year, and it’s entirely possible that they could be on much more.

With big dollars flying around too, one move could start a big chain reaction. Say Fyfe is signed away from Fremantle – the Dockers use the cap room to go shopping and land Jason Johannisen and Mitch McGovern, prompting the Bulldogs to look at the market, while Adelaide have more to spend on luring Bryce Gibbs, and so on, et cetera.

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Player movement has never been busier than it is right now, and clubs the league over now view luring players from other teams as an essential part of list-building.

With that kind of philosophy in place and more cash to splash than ever before, it seems a given that this October will be a bustling one.

Nat Fyfe Fremantle Dockers AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Travis Anderson)

Lastly, a few little skerricks of rumour that are not CBA-related.

It was said last week that West Coast are targetting Gold Coast’s Brandon Matera – no shock given his uncle Peter’s stature at the club, and they have been linked with him often in the past.

Matera is out of contract at the end of this year, and although he’s been in good form lately, he has been in and out at the Suns a lot under Rodney Eade, so might be open to a move. Gold Coast have a number of similar players and may not be too aggrieved to give him up.

Jacob Hopper has also been linked to some rival clubs for the first time as well, with North Melbourne, Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon all said to be in the mix for his services. The Giants re-signed a number of young players recently, but out-of-contract Hopper was not one of them.

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It would be fascinating to see how a deal would work out if North were to lure both Kelly and Hopper to the club, with the Roos giving up their first picks for two years in a row likely being a given and even then probably not enough to satisfy the Giants.

That said, it’s possibly that North’s interest in him is largely as a back-up in the event that other pursuits fall through, and given Carlton have in recent years attracted enough GWS talent to justify building a four-lane freeway between the two clubs, it wouldn’t surprise if they’re leading the pack.

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