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This looked to be one of the matches of the season at the start of the year, but while the ladder may tell us we’re in for a bloodbath, there’s still plenty to watch out for when the Crows and Hawks clash to kick off Round 14.
Ricky Henderson plays his 100th game against the club that delisted him last summer, Adelaide look to get their quest for the minor premiership back in full swing, while the Hawks welcome back some experienced bodies to add some intrigue to this first versus second-last clash.
Like their opponents did two years ago, Adelaide look to be well and truly the team to beat in 2017.
They sit atop the AFL ladder at 9-3, and while Greater Western Sydney sport an identical win-loss record, the Crows sport a frightening percentage of 141.8 – some 25 points superior to that of the Giants.
They’ve scored a whopping 140 points or more in six of their 12 matches this season and, fresh off the bye, they’ll be keen to sink their teeth into a team they’ve already accounted for once in 2017.
Hawthorn, on the other hand, have fallen off a cliff in a manner almost nobody thought possible.
After featuring in four straight grand finals, winning three premierships in a row and still finishing in the top four before a straight-sets exit last finals, there was considerable outrage that the club had managed to poach Jaeger O’Meara, Tom Mitchell and Tyrone Vickery last offseason.
The fear that this would keep the all-conquering Hawks at the top of the ladder has proven largely unfounded, with just four wins and a miserable percentage of 76.9 keeping the club above only the perennially hapless Brisbane Lions.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Much has been made of Adelaide’s unrivalled scoring prowess, with very good reason, but what’s really helped the Crows take the step up this season has been the emergence of some new midfield stars.
After a breakout 2016, Matt Crouch has taken another huge leap forward. He tops the club with an average of 32 disposals a game, with older brother Brad and rebounding defender Rory Laird rounding out the top three.
So significant has their improvement been that Rory Sloane’s much-publicised struggles with the tag have been irrelevant to Adelaide’s play, while club stalwart Scott Thompson can’t even get a game.
With a forward 50 group boasting names such as Taylor Walker, Eddie Betts and Tom Lynch, the disposals these young Adelaide midfielders don’t just end up on the statsheet, they end up on the scoreboard.
Josh Jenkins hasn’t yet hit full stride after his year was derailed by a rib injury, giving Don Pyke’s forwards a truly terrifying upside as well.
Almost everything said about Adelaide this year was said about Hawthorn very recently, but the unstoppable Hawks of 2013-2015 are nowhere to be found this season.
In just about every statistical category, Hawthorn are slumping, and in many cases it’s the veterans who need to shoulder the blame.
The return of Jarryd Roughead and recruitment of Tyrone Vickery was supposed to take pressure off Jack Gunston as the club’s lone target up forward, but he’s on track for a sub-30 goal season after putting 51 on the board last year.
Cyril Rioli’s average goals per game has plummeted from 2.2 to 0.7, Josh Gibson is five disposals and two marks worse off than a year ago while Liam Shiels and Shaun Burgoyne aren’t tackling like they used to.
Tom Mitchell has done his absolute best to fill two voids in Sam Mitchell’s ball use and Jordan Lewis’ aggression, but Jaeger O’Meara and Vickery have been absolute non-events as recruits.
Alastair Clarkson has turned back to experience over youth for this clash, with youngsters Kade Stewart and James Cousins, as well as underperforming veterans Brendan Whitecross and Josh Gibson, axed for this clash.
Gibson’s exclusion is officially due to a groin injury, but his struggles this season have been well documented.
Luke Hodge and Luke Breust will return to give Hawthorn some much-needed leadership and scoring ability, while Grant Birchall and Ryan Schoenmakers also return for just their fourth and second games of the season.
Pyke deemed only one change necessary for the Crows after their demolition of St Kilda before the bye, with Luke Brown replacing Riley Knight.
Despite the disparity of ladder positions, there’ll still be plenty of feeling in this clash – especially for Crows fans.
The Adelaide faithful have still never forgiven Gunston for his defection in 2011, while Hawthorn have been responsible for three of the club’s finals exits in the last ten years – including the last two.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
So, who takes this one?
Does the Adelaide machine keep rolling at home against the struggling Hawks?
After a barnstorming 6-0 start, their last six weeks haven’t been incredible. Comfortable wins over Brisbane, Fremantle and St Kilda have punctuated dismal losses to North Melbourne, Melbourne and Geelong.
Hawthorn may be in 17th, but they are only two wins, probably three given their awful percentage, from a finals spot.
They have shown they can still play very well at times in 2017, so a stunning upset win here would make for a very interesting second half of the season.
The mental image of the Hawks many of us still have in our head is that of a ruthless matchwinner. Relentless scoring, unbearable pressure and a competitive spirit that keeps them in any game.
But it’s 2017 now, and all of that now applies to the Crows, not their opposition. We’ll have all learned that lesson comprehensively by the final siren.
Adelaide by 56 points
That’s my Thursday night forecast. What’s yours?