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Can the Lions beat New Zealand?

The British and Irish Lions next face the Highlanders. (AP Photo/Mark Baker)
Roar Guru
22nd June, 2017
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Peter O’Mahony will captain the British and Irish Lions in the first match of the Test series against New Zealand, this Saturday, 24th June.

It is a huge honour for O’Mahony, but well deserved. The Munster captain led the Lions in style in their win over the Maori All Blacks last Saturday and played a pivotal role in defeating the Crusaders the week before.

He’s joined in the back row by Sean O’Brien and Toby Faletau. Tour skipper, Sam Warburton is on the replacements bench. Warburton claimed before the tour started he knew he wasn’t assured a place in the starting Test team, despite his role as Lions tour captain. Warburton is a great impact sub though, being able to play at both the blindside and open side flanker roles.

George Kruis and Alun Wyn Jones are at second row. This will be Jones’ seventh Test for the Lions, having played in both the 2009 and 2013 series. Jones narrowly shunts out young star Maro Itoje to the bench. Itoje is another great impact sub, being able to play at both second row and No.6.

Mako Vunipola, Jamie George and Tadgh Furlong make up the front row. All three played in both the wins against the Maori and Crusaders. They are ably supported by Ken Owens, Jack McGrath and Kyle Sinkler on the bench.

Owen Farrell gets the nod at out-half, where he’ll be partnered by Conor Murray. Murray was a shoo-in for the Test team, but Farrell edges out Jonny Sexton for the pivotal spot. Sexton covers on the bench, along with Rhys Webb for Murray.

Ben Te’o and Jonathan Davies reunite their centre partnership from the wins against the Crusaders and the Maori. The big surprise is the back three of Elliot Daly, Anthony Watson and Jim Williams. Leigh Halfpenny fills out the replacement bench, while George North fails to make the 23.

North is probably the biggest player to miss out, though the giant wing has been quiet so far on tour. Daly and Williams had great games in Wednesday’s 34-6 win over the Chiefs, while Watson put in strong performances against the Maori and Crusaders.

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It’s a strong squad, with the best available players. They bring some real credentials. All but Webb featured in both the wins over the Maori and Crusaders.

Vunipola, George, Kruis, Farrell, Te’o, Watson, Sinkler and Itoje won back to back Six Nations titles with England and played a huge role in England’s record-equalling run of 18 consecutive victories.

Furlong, O’Brien, Murray, McGrath and Sexton helped Ireland beat New Zealand last November. Vunipola, Jones, O’Brien, Falateau, Murray, Farrell, Davies, Sexton and Halfpenny all played in the Lions’ Test series win against Australia four years ago.

Still, the odds are stacked against them, quite heavily. New Zealand are back to back World Champions. They’ve won two consecutive Rugby Championships.

They’ve had a run of 18 consecutive victories against the best teams in the world. They haven’t lost a home game since 2011 and they haven’t lost at Eden Park, where the first Test is being played, since 1994.

History is also on New Zealand’s side. The Lions have faced the All Blacks in 11 Test series over the years, and the Lions have only won one, in 1971. The Lions have also been whitewashed three times, in 1966, 1983 and 2005.

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The Lions shocked a lot of people by winning the games against the Crusaders and the Maori, quite comfortably too, but New Zealand are a different matter entirely. The Lions have yet to show much strength in attack, which could be fatal against the All Blacks, who ran in 12 tries recently against Samoa.

It will be another shock if the Lions manage to overcome New Zealand. It’s fair to say the only New Zealander who will be having sleepless nights before the Test on Saturday is Warren Gatland.

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