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It’s a mouth-watering clash on Friday night as arguably the two best form teams in the league go head to head.
These sides may be placed fifth and tenth on the ladder but given their recent form they are as much in the race as anyone this year.
Melbourne have won four in a row coming into this match and that streak has solidified their spot in the top eight.
With an 8-5 record they’re looking likely to make finals for the first time in many years, and that alone would be a big tick for them in 2017 – but they’ll believe they can go even further.
Sydney on the other hand have spent the last seven weeks trying to recover from an awful 0-6 start, and to their credit, they’ve done quite well.
They have won six of their last seven with the only loss in that time being a one-goal defeat at the hands of Hawthorn.
The Swans have a 6-7 record but will believe they have the form to still play finals. This match is crucial for that though – lose, and they will have to beat at least one of the top three on the run home.
These two sides have a lot in common, and both have Paul Roos’ fingerprints on them. They both win primarily though the strength of their midfields.
Melbourne are one of the league’s strongest sides in the middle of the ground, averaging +43 disposals, +3.4 inside 50s, +3.4 minutes in possession, +3.3 clearances and +7.4 contested possessions this year.
Sydney aren’t quite as impressive in terms of season averages, and there’s a big gap between when their midfield clicks and when it doesn’t. Of course the good news is that when it does, the Swans almost invariably win.
(AAP Image/David Moir)
The Demons can also boast a small advantage when it comes to the offensive/defensive battle.
They clear their defence 69 per cent of the time, but their opponents only clear 65 per cent of the time, and they average 1.83 points per inside 50 compared to their opponents’ 1.7.
Sydney are slightly ahead of their opponents on both of these measures as well, but only marginally – 71 per cent defensive clearance rate to 70, and 1.68 points per inside 50 to 1.64.
Essentially what the numbers suggest is that who wins tonight will be decided by a classic battle of the midfields.
Both teams must strive to win the ball, and if they don’t, must put as much tackling pressure as they can on their opponents and gum up the works.
If one side beats the other in the midfield, the odds of the side losing that battle converting well enough to win are very low.
Who is going to get the edge there? It’s remarkably hard to say, mostly because the Swans have been so hot and cold during the year.
Granted they’ve been more hot than cold lately, but is that them having flipped the switch, or have they just had a good run?
Sydney’s biggest scalp this year was a win over Richmond two weeks ago, but, the stats of that match read as something of a fluke.
They were well beaten in the middle, with -9.6 minutes in possession, but kicked at 60 per cent accuracy on goal compared to Richmond’s 48 per cent.
Other than that they’ve beaten Brisbane, North Melbourne, St Kilda, the Bulldogs and Essendon – all sides either middling or in the lower reaches of the ladder.
They haven’t truly beaten a midfield as good as Melbourne’s yet this year, though that doesn’t mean they can’t.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
A few specifics to consider for this game – it is being played at the MCG, but that’s not as big a factor as it might seem.
The Dees actually have better stats when playing away this year, and while that’s probably something of an outlier, the short version is they don’t have any significant home advantage, nor are Sydney particularly better or worse away from the SCG.
Melbourne have some mounting injury headaches – in addition to still having Nathan Jones, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts and Angus Brayshaw on the sidelines, they’ve also lost Christian Salem and Jeff Garlett this week.
Sydney on the other side of the coin are almost perfectly fit, regaining Jarrad McVeigh and Zak Jones (from suspension) this week.
The mentality of both teams must also be considered. Both would have some confidence, but we’ve already seen this year that few teams if any are capable of sustaining big winning streaks.
Both have also had some lucky escapes in recent weeks. Sydney as mentioned got out of jail against Richmond, and while they deserved to beat Essendon last week, they only just managed it.
Melbourne, on the other hand, played what statistically looks more like a loss last week against West Coast, but got a win with some last-minute magic, and were also pretty lucky to scrape by against Collingwood in Round 12.
I’d actually say that both sides are ripe for a loss. Having a few wins in a row without necessarily playing their best footy builds a picture of sides that are coasting a bit, and ready to be knocked off their perch.
Because of that, this match will likely come down to who enters with greater intensity, and that is hard to predict.
How will mounting injuries affect Melbourne’s mental approach? Will being up against it make them rally together, or lose confidence?
Sydney will know that their season is close to being on the line here. The fact they’ve beaten Melbourne in their last five meetings in a row does suggest something too.
Could definitely go either way this one, and should be a great game of football. I’m going to say Sydney by two goals.
That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?