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The mighty have fallen, and there may not be a way back.
The Western Bulldogs in 2016 were one of the great football stories, making history with a devastating run through September in what could well be the greatest finals campaign ever put together by an AFL or VFL team.
Undermanned and ostensibly lacking match fitness, they sailed through to the premiership despite starting underdog in all four finals, travelling interstate twice, and not once getting the use of home ground advantage.
They were an outstanding September team, but also a very good home-and-away side. Even though they finished seventh on the ladder, their record would have put them in the top four nine times since the turn of the century, and knocking on the door of it in several others.
With eight rounds to go in 2017, the Dogs, with a 7-7 record, would need to win every game to match last year’s tally of 15 home-and-away wins, which is clearly not going to happen.
Their percentage, usually a very reliable indicator of a club’s true position in the overall scheme of things, is 96.6. That ranks them a lowly 12th.
By the numbers, their defence is standing up OK relative to the rest of the competition, but they are conceding 13 points more a game compared to 2016. In attack, they are averaging three points less per game, but looking at the last block of six matches, they are two goals per game worse off. That’s about a four goal worse side per game than their premiership model.
But, the numbers don’t do justice to how ordinary the Bulldogs have looked through the majority of this season. Saturday against West Coast was a case in point, particularly through the first three quarters, where they lacked any sort of cohesion. They looked like a team of odd-bods and jobbers that had been thrown together to play without so much as a training session to get to know each other.
(AAP Image/Julian Smith)
The key problems with ball in hand were decision-making, positioning and skill. Not a good trio when trying to move the ball smoothly in today’s game. When the first two are failing, they have a direct impact on the third.
We often hear of commentators and coaches wanting their teams to play ‘first option’ footy, particularly in stoppage and contested situations, but the Dogs are struggling to implement it.
When winning the ball at a stoppage, there are only so many ways you can dispose of it, with opposition bodies everywhere. Having teammates at the right exit points is critical. Much of the time, when we laud players that have great vision, it’s because their teammates are in the right position, and the best players already know where they are before receiving the ball.
At the moment, the Dogs player with the ball is finding no option in the right spot where he wants to give it, which leads to him holding onto it for longer than ideal. This enables opposition to react, pressuring the ball carrier, but also closing off any exits that might be open.
By the time the ball is ready to be given off, the ball-carrier is under more pressure, affecting his skill level, but the receiver is also under more pressure than he should have been. All of this happens in seconds, but is having a massive impact. It’s why the Dogs constantly look “off”.
When this happens enough times, the confidence of individual players starts to wane. We’ve even seen Marcus Bontempelli consistently fumble and fall into these traps as the season has gone on. At times, the right option is in the right spot, but the ball-winner second-guesses themselves, and the moment is gone.
(AAP Image/David Crosling)
In the finals last year, all of the above was razor sharp. The Dogs were clean, confidence and focussed. At the moment, the reverse applies.
Luke Beveridge has always rung the changes with personnel between matches. It worked like a charm in his first two years, but is it part of the problem this year with confidence at a low ebb? Players can’t find continuity or cohesion.
Two obvious players that symbolise the Bulldogs woes are Jake Stringer and Jason Johannisen
At the start of 2016, we put Stringer at 25 in The Roar Top 50, and I wrote the following: “Stringer really does seem to have it all. Listed at 192 centimetres and 91 kilograms, he has vice-like hands, is a superb judge of flight but can wreak havoc on the ground, and is a beautiful kick.”
“He can play both taller and smaller than his height, but is light of foot, belying his weight, while also being powerful and explosive.”
Sadly, we’re not seeing enough of his wonderful pack-busting, ball-tearing attributes, and frankly he’s been playing soft footy. There’s a case to be made that he’s the most disappointing individual player of the last two years. Maybe we expected too much and overrated him to start with.
Much has been made of Johnnisen being tagged out of games in the last month, and for good reason. After averaging 25 disposals per game through the finals on the way to a Norm Smith medal, and 25 disposals again across the first ten matches this year, his output has been drastically reduced over the last four weeks.
Opposition defensive forwards are targeting Johannisen and tagging him to distraction. It’s not just his lack of link, run and carry that is contributing to the Dogs malaise, but unsettling air it creates around him. Maybe John Longmire, who started this when Sydney played them, has ended his career as an AFL half-back, and a new position has to be found.
The Western Bulldogs are down, but not quite out. They have a run home that is friendly enough on paper, as much as it can be in this utopianly even AFL world. Their ceiling appears to be the 12-win mark, which is likely to place teams around eighth-tenth this year.
The Cinderella story of 2016 has turned into an ugly step-sister this season. They’re going to need some sort of magic to figure again in this year’s finals race.