After the State of Origin decider next Wednesday night, there are just eight rounds in the NRL premiership left.
Eight rounds to decide who gets to feature in September, and eventually, who goes to ANZ Stadium for the grand final. All matches are obviously important but, in each round, there is one match that takes on an even greater significance. The below is my take on these matches.
Round 19 – New Zealand Warriors versus Penrith Panthers – Mt Smart Stadium
Both these teams are sitting in sight of the top eight and are probably the most unpredictable teams in the NRL. We can probably take the guess that this would be a high scoring game and would likely favour the home team getting home, but this could go either way.
One thing is for certain though. The winner is still in the running to make the eight while the loser, although likely still mathematically possible, is just about gone for 2017.
Round 20 – St George Illawarra Dragons versus Manly Warringah Sea Eagles – WIN Stadium
While the top eight is currently reasonably clear cut, arguably the side under the most pressure is the Dragons. A game against one of the form sides of the competition will prove crucial. A Dragons win should steady their ship while a loss will leave them open to contenders below. A win for Manly likely consolidates their place in the top four.
Round 21 – Parramatta Eels versus Brisbane Broncos – ANZ Stadium
This should be a cracker. Both teams should pick up four points following State of Origin 3 so continuation of the run will consolidate their position.
A win for Parramatta will put then within one or two wins of a top eight spot in September whereas a win for Brisbane gets them very close, if not in, the top four after Round 21.
Round 22 – Manly Warringah Sea Eagles versus Sydney Roosters – Lottoland
A Sunday afternoon game at Lottoland against the Roosters will bring in a large home crowd and you would think that the winner goes close to cementing a top four spot. Like the Sharks, Manly’s home record is underwhelming this year while they haven’t lost away, so that brings the Roosters into the game.
(AAP Image/David Mariuz)
Round 23 – Brisbane Broncos versus Cronulla Sutherland Sharks – Suncorp Stadium
The Broncos will be heavily favoured to win at home however the Sharks away record, at time, of writing, was perfect. If the Sharks form against the Roosters last week was a sign of things to come and not an aberration, this could be a classic.
The Sharks could probably take a loss here and still make the four but, for the Broncos, a loss here may lead to a fifth place finish and a home final a few weeks later.
Round 24 – Brisbane Broncos versus St George Illawarra Dragons – Suncorp Stadium
Much more will be known about the Dragons’ chances of qualifying for the top eight by the time Round 24 is here but, based on their form at the moment, a loss here would put them very close to falling outside of the eight. On the flipside, an upset win by the Dragons likely means that the top four would be getting out of reach for the Broncos.
Round 25 – Cronulla Sutherland Sharks versus Sydney Roosters – Southern Cross Group Stadium
The Sharks home form has been ordinary this season while the Roosters records against top teams so far has been equally poor. The winner here should wrap up a top four spot and potentially a home final. The loser will likely need to wait until Round 26 to try and lock in their spot in the top half of the eight.
Round 26 – North Queensland Cowboys versus Brisbane Broncos – 1300Smiles Stadium
Nothing has been written of the Cowboys in this article until now and there is uncertainty around their finals credentials without their champion halfback. However, I expect them to retain their place in the eight and a win for them here would likely see them finish fifth or sixth and have a home semi final. A loss to the Broncos would see them likely miss the four.
The one key team I haven’t mentioned this far is the Melbourne Storm, primarily because they will start favourite in every game they play from Round 19 on. However, with games against the Sea Eagles, Roosters and Cowboys, they will help shape the eight.
My own view is that the top eight will stay the same as it is now. The Dragons are most under pressure but they have a reasonable draw coming home and I just don’t think the contenders outside the eight have the consistency to challenge. So, in order, my top eight is Storm, Sharks, Sea Eagles, Roosters, Broncos, Cowboys, Eels and Dragons.
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