The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 17

Josh Elliott Editor

By Josh Elliott, Josh Elliott is a Roar Editor

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    With seven weeks left in the season, we’re seeing plenty of make-or-break games coming up.

    This season has made me pretty wary about tipping in-form teams because no team seems to be at all capable of sustaining good form.

    However, I’m going against that urge on this one and picking the Saints on Friday night. They’ve got the kind of game plan that can choke the Bombers’ ball movement.

    Call it gut feel tipping Hawthorn for an upset over Geelong. They’ve got the Luke Hodge motivation, they’ve been OK lately, and Geelong are prone to bad losses at times.

    North have generally managed to avoid getting smashed this year, preferring to break my heart through close losses instead. I’m not sure that trend will survive this week’s game against Port Adelaide.

    Gold Coast versus Collingwood would be better put down as Rodney Eade versus Nathan Buckley. The Pies seem to have grimly accepted their fate in the last few weeks and I reckon the Suns, at home, win this one.

    A match against GWS is the perfect chance for Sydney to put an exclamation point on their revival and my gut says they will.

    Melbourne’s injury list should make it a win for Adelaide on Saturday night, but the Dees certainly can’t be written off.

    Richmond should get over Brisbane fairly comfortably, though given what the Tigers put forward last week you could be forgiven for doubting them.

    I’d be tempted to pick Carlton ahead of the Bulldogs but losing Cripps for the year will hit them hard, so I’m tipping the Dogs.

    West Coast are still a few steps ahead of Fremantle, and should win the Derby.

    And Lock of the Week? Well, I have jinxed a few sides lately so this week I’m going to get optimistic and put the mozz on Port Adelaide to blast my Roos.

    Lock of the week from the Simpsons

    Cameron Rose
    Essendon, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Collingwood, GWS, Adelaide, Richmond, Carlton, West Coast

    Some will look at this round and see yet another series of tricky match-ups. I look at this round and see a chance to extend my commanding lead.

    It’s not always easy to follow up a hot performance, and that is the challenge facing St Kilda and Essendon this week, but particularly the former.

    I’ll back the Bombers to end the four-match winning run of the Saints.

    Geelong should be too good for Hawthorn, even allowing for the Hawks improving as the season goes on.

    Port hosting North Melbourne should see a predictable result, although the Power have a 4-3 record at Adelaide Oval this year, so it hasn’t been the fortress many might expect.

    The knives of journalists all over the country are being sharpened in anticipation of Collingwood versus Gold Coast, with the pressure on either Eade or Buckley to ramp up considerably based on who loses this one. I think the Pies will bounce back and get a win on the road.

    GWS have been too good for Sydney in their last three meetings, and frankly it hasn’t been close with margins of 42, 36 and 42.

    This will continue, and remind everyone that Sydney are no good things to make the eight. They should, but the 0-6 start will come back to haunt them still.

    Melbourne thumped the Crows in Adelaide only two months ago, and they now meet in Darwin. The Dees are missing midfielders and Adelaide, with two extra days’ break, have the advantage.

    On Sunday, Richmond has had the wood on Brisbane for a long time, and will be keen to hit back after last week’s disgrace.

    Carlton to continue the Dogs’ misery. West Coast should get over Fremantle in the Derby.

    Round 17 Josh Elliott Maddy Friend Tim Lane Cam Rose The Crowd
    STK vs ESS STK ESS ESS ESS STK
    GEE vs HAW GEE HAW GEE GEE GEE
    PA vs NM PA PA PA PA PA
    GCS vs COL GCS GCS GCS COL GCS
    GWS vs SYD SYD SYD GWS GWS SYD
    MEL vs ADE ADE ADE ADE ADE ADE
    RIC vs BRI RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC
    CAR vs WB WB CAR WB CAR WB
    FRE vs WCE WCE WCE WCE WCE WCE
    Last week 3 3 5 6 4
    Total 71 76 80 83 76
    Josh Elliott
    Josh Elliott

    Josh Elliott may be The Roar's Weekend Editor, but at heart he's just a rusted-on North Melbourne tragic with a penchant for pun headlines - and also abnormal alliteration, assuredly; assuming achievability. He once finished third in a hot chilli pie eating contest. You can follow him on Twitter @JoshElliott_29 and listen to him on The Roar's AFL Podcast.

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    The Crowd Says (88)

    • July 13th 2017 @ 7:32am
      Mark said | July 13th 2017 @ 7:32am | ! Report

      Waiting to hear the ins for the Suns. Ablett in, I’ll tip them, if not I’ll go the Pies.

    • July 13th 2017 @ 8:24am
      Pope Paul VII said | July 13th 2017 @ 8:24am | ! Report

      North by 10 goals

    • Roar Guru

      July 13th 2017 @ 9:08am
      Cat said | July 13th 2017 @ 9:08am | ! Report

      Hey Josh, can you clarify who you are actually tipping in the Gee v. Haw game? You said, “Call it gut feel tipping Hawthorn for an upset over Geelong.” but in the chart at the bottom you are listed as tipping GEE. Just curious.

      • July 13th 2017 @ 12:46pm
        Birdman said | July 13th 2017 @ 12:46pm | ! Report

        Josh looks to be having one each way, Cat.

        Gutted that no-one is tipping Cats by 60-80 points – much prefer to be a long odds underdog.

        • Roar Guru

          July 13th 2017 @ 12:55pm
          Cat said | July 13th 2017 @ 12:55pm | ! Report

          I’d be more confident if it wasn’t Hodgey’s 300th and he hadn’t just announced his pending retirement. I reckon the cagey old fox timed his announcement to coincide with his final game against the old rivals. Smart play. I’ll still tip the Cats but I reckon this has the makings of another in the long line of classics.

          • July 13th 2017 @ 1:57pm
            Birdman said | July 13th 2017 @ 1:57pm | ! Report

            ” I reckon this has the makings of another in the long line of classics”

            copy that, Cat.

            • July 13th 2017 @ 3:22pm
              Don Freo said | July 13th 2017 @ 3:22pm | ! Report

              Simple…get Joel Selwood to announce his retirement too.

              He can always rescind it for the next piece of motivation.

          • July 14th 2017 @ 2:17am
            Nineteen said | July 14th 2017 @ 2:17am | ! Report

            “Do it for Hodgey” could be the catchphrase in September. Haha.

            • July 14th 2017 @ 4:59am
              New York Hawk said | July 14th 2017 @ 4:59am | ! Report

              We can only hope!

            • July 14th 2017 @ 9:10am
              Don Freo said | July 14th 2017 @ 9:10am | ! Report

              Can’t imagine many of the 8 opposition finalists would have much of a response to that catchphrase.

    • July 13th 2017 @ 9:10am
      Mattician6x6 said | July 13th 2017 @ 9:10am | ! Report

      WCE to get up in the final subi derby.

    • July 13th 2017 @ 9:15am
      johno said | July 13th 2017 @ 9:15am | ! Report

      Freo continues to get short changed by the tipsters

      This is the best opportunity for them with Kennedy possibly still not back at the Eagles.

      • July 13th 2017 @ 9:24am
        Mattician6x6 said | July 13th 2017 @ 9:24am | ! Report

        Tipped freo last 3 weeks in a row as a wce supporter I have my bias on the tip from my football fan view the injuries freo possibly have combined with fact their last 3weeks have been physically and mentally intense, young sides can falter and under perform due physical and mental exhaustion.

      • July 13th 2017 @ 3:24pm
        Don Freo said | July 13th 2017 @ 3:24pm | ! Report

        Sheridan’s hammy is a bonus…and Collins should be named. Hambling and Johnno proppy. I’d love Collins on the Vardy/Petrie/Lycett forward.

        WC should have real trouble with the 8,9,10 deep Freo mids. Mundy and Fyfe’s mobility forward should demand that Barrass and co are more accountable. Not as many free range marks will spill the ball for Ballas and Sunny.

        Oh Happy days! I wonder if we’ll head into the finals with an 8 game winning streak.

        • July 13th 2017 @ 3:47pm
          Mattician6x6 said | July 13th 2017 @ 3:47pm | ! Report

          Your mids could cause some 6rouble agree don, Mackenzie out so gov will start back, interesting derby that’s for sure.

        • July 13th 2017 @ 4:56pm
          dontknowmuchaboutfootball said | July 13th 2017 @ 4:56pm | ! Report

          The real issue is finding space for Collins, along with other fringe players who could add something for this particular match up (e.g. Taberner, who imo should have been named for the Rd6 derby). If it’s a given that Mundy is in for Sheridan, who comes out for Collins? Logue? Crozier? Suban (would be a bit stiff, given he’s up for his 150)?

          The only under-performers, relatively speaking, in the NM game were the young players, and Ballantyne (cue howls from Jon boy). For all the bleating about Freo sticking with older players, there are only 3 players over 27 likely to line up this week: Mundy, Johnno and Ballantyne. Next oldest is Stephen Hill, and anyone calling for him to be dropped for youth has thereby shown that their opinions shouldn’t be taken very seriously.

          Kersten for Taberner makes no sense, either, as you’d be swapping like for like in terms of reliability and performance, and against the Eagles backline I think Freo need to add tall forwards not rotate them.

          • July 13th 2017 @ 5:06pm
            Jon boy said | July 13th 2017 @ 5:06pm | ! Report

            Lots of good stuff there!

          • July 13th 2017 @ 5:42pm
            Don Freo said | July 13th 2017 @ 5:42pm | ! Report

            Hambling may miss. Tabs should come in for Kersten.

    • Roar Rookie

      July 13th 2017 @ 9:29am
      Lord Dunsborough of the MCC said | July 13th 2017 @ 9:29am | ! Report

      The mighty MCC army touches down for the second part of our Territorian tour this week, taking on the Crows in the humid climes of Darwin. It is great that our club takes the lead in exporting our culture to those parts of Australia that lesser teams fear to tread. The Fuchsias though are an eminently respectable name and every city enjoys seeing our well-heeled supporters pull up in their Range Rovers, wallets bulging with potential tips.

      We put our money where our mouth is too, in drafting players from these climes – Austin Wonaeamirri was a great pickup until his fondness for turtle meat and apathy towards skinfolds saw him kicked out when Mark Neeld took the reigns (and I think Austin will be forever grateful he didn’t have to play under him) while Liam Jurrah was a slashing, cutting runner whose stabbing kick and ability to hack the ball (and the man) stood him in good stead.

      Not since the US Marines arrived has an arrival been so anticipated in Darwin as the Fuchsias touching down – we will dispatch Adelaide with aplomb, like we did in front of their grim grey faced ancient doddering supporters at home earlier this year. The MCC is on the march to a September final, at home at the MCG, that will culminate in a premiership trophy for the establishment

      • July 13th 2017 @ 10:23am
        tibor nagy (big four sticks) said | July 13th 2017 @ 10:23am | ! Report

        You and your lady friend, Belinda, are getting ahead of yourselves old chum. There is no way Melbourne will be premiers, as 2017 is the year of the Tiger. The Tigers will be dining out on Lions this week.

        I will be seeing you, Nigel, Eric, Basil, and Belinda come September, and will be waving you good bye from the cheer squad as you aristocrats drive off in your Range Rovers with the Richmond song ringing in your ears.

        If you guys get up over Adelaide, I will see if they can put on a barrel of sherry for you and Lady Belinda, down at the Spread Eagle.

        Go Tiges!

        • Roar Guru

          July 13th 2017 @ 10:36am
          Paul D said | July 13th 2017 @ 10:36am | ! Report

          Ten in a row against us – you have to slip up sooner or later. Losing this weekend would be a very Richmond thing for you to do. Hipwood to kick 6 and ragdoll that Ken Doll Rance out of the game, while Dustin Martin will be shown up by Zorko as not even in the same league. Shame Josh didn’t make you lock of the week but we can still win regardless

          • July 13th 2017 @ 10:44am
            Andrew said | July 13th 2017 @ 10:44am | ! Report

            I say that with regards to my blues v hawthorn. Haven’t beaten them in a very long time.

            • July 13th 2017 @ 10:51am
              Andrew said | July 13th 2017 @ 10:51am | ! Report

              Round 6 2005 was last time blues beat hawthorn so long time between drinks.

              • July 13th 2017 @ 12:47pm
                Birdman said | July 13th 2017 @ 12:47pm | ! Report

                could be your year Andrew…

              • July 13th 2017 @ 1:57pm
                Andrew said | July 13th 2017 @ 1:57pm | ! Report

                Unfortunately the hawks seem to be peaking this time of year whereas my blues have hit their limit i think especially with cripps gone now we would need a minor miracle.

              • July 13th 2017 @ 3:40pm
                true blue said | July 13th 2017 @ 3:40pm | ! Report

                I agree Andrew. I still remember the night we knocked off the Hawks. It’s been down hill ever since. Even later in that year they managed to beat us. I am hoping we can do it this year, yet I doubt if we can.

              • July 13th 2017 @ 6:47pm
                Darren said | July 13th 2017 @ 6:47pm | ! Report

                Remember the Fev fader that hit the post? Not sure of the year but lat 2000s some time.

              • July 13th 2017 @ 8:17pm
                true blue said | July 13th 2017 @ 8:17pm | ! Report

                Yes I do. I think it was 2009.

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