After a shaky start in his first outing, Lonzo Ball has looked like an NBA calibre player on his way to Summer League MVP. But does this necessarily mean he is on a path to NBA stardom?
History shows an interesting connection between Summer League performance and NBA success.
Let’s take a moment to dissect the good and the bad of a campaign that featured one injury, two triple doubles and five sets of shoes.
The good
MVP
Winning the league MVP doesn’t look like a good omen when looking back at the last five years. Damian Lillard is the only player featured to ascend to stardom. Looking back just a few more years does however show genuine superstars John Wall and Blake Griffin.
Assists
Probably the most talked about part of his game coming into summer league. It was expected that Lonzo would be capable of providing highlight level dimes. Across his five game summer league campaign he is averaging 9.3 APG, a Summer League all-time record. This puts him well ahead of the summer league yields of current NBA point guards John Wall (7.8APG), Chris Paul (5.5APG) and Steph Curry (4.2APG).
PPG
If not for two explosive efforts this number would have been a lot lower. Lonzo has averaged a very healthy 16.3 PPG matching the outputs of Jordon Clarkson (16.3), edging out near teammate D’Angelo Russell (16.2) and just falling short of Kyle Lowry (16.4). While he is in some respectable company, there are many above him who have failed to have an impact on the NBA stage.
Footwear
With a Mamba mentality, Lonzo looked unstoppable. Call it what you will but even Lonzo thinks he played better sporting his purple Kobe’s.
Stat line with Kobes : 36/8/11
The bad
3PT shooting
Coming into the draft, Lonzo’s rather unorthodox shooting stroke was a conversation point for casual fans and front offices’ alike. Starting poorly with a 1-11 effort, he showed a lot of confidence in his shot to keep gunning.
In the following five games he has been more efficient from the beyond the arc bringing his overall 3PT per cent to 23.8 per cent. To find active players with a similar percentages in Summer League one could look at JJ Barea (23.8%) or Ben McLemore (23.7%).
Both of these players are respectable shooters at an NBA level, however looking at the volume of players mentioned above them starts getting ugly.
Footwear
BBB shoes. Lonzo couldn’t buy a bucket while wearing them in his first outing, probably spent it all on buying the shoes. He did however have his first triple double in the following game.
Stat line with BBB: 8/8/7.5
Although in some areas he has excelled, Lonzo will need to prove his worth at an NBA level. If history shows us anything, it’s that a player can be an excellent achiever in summer league but still have a middling or non existent NBA career.
Equally, some players have performed poorly in some metrics on their way to stardom. Only time will tell if Lonzo can be the star to carry the Lakers back into the playoffs, bring on October.
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