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Super Rugby round semi-finals: No further upsets

26th July, 2017
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The Crusaders win Super Rugby again. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
Expert
26th July, 2017
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And then there were four. After three huge upsets in the qualifying finals last weekend – if you stupidly followed my tipping, that is – the Super Rugby season now looks set to play out in the two dominant cities of the competition in 2017: Johannesburg and Christchurch.

The Brumbies going down probably wasn’t much so much of a surprise, but the Stormers turned out one of their more disappointing performances in this back-half of the season.

But that’s all behind us now, and the two semi-finals now both loom as cracking contests.

Qualifying finals: Nobes and The Crowd 4; Digger and Harry 3; Brett [score redacted]

Nobes
“I am still recovering from the early hours I have to wake up for some of these games. On Saturday (for me) everything started at 4:35am and from then on pretty much non-stop until the other two games in South Africa.

“That was not enough and I went on to see my club play here in Argentina. I overdosed on rugby more or less.

“We had a very good round and the teams that won were the ones I expected, however some of the games were much closer than I first thought.

“The semis are up, there is travelling involved, and there will be more travelling in the finals, but this is one of the many reasons why Super Rugby is considered by many the most difficult rugby competition in the world.

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“Getting into the predictions, the Lions will have to do much better if they want to overcome the Hurricanes. It will be a nail-biting game if both flyhalves are the designated kickers (cynical me). Something did not look good with the Lions against the Sharks, and the Hurricanes for sure were taking notes on that. They also have too much talent to overcome the travel fatigue, so I will cautiously tip the visitors.

“If the weather is nasty in Christchurch the home team will have an edge over the well-travelled Chiefs. It is hard enough to win at the Crusaders’ venue and it is even harder to win with that many hours on a plane and travelling through so many timezones. On a dry turf, the Chiefs may have a chance, but that is not enough to tip them.

“Advantage Crusaders.

“Good luck in the semis to Harry, The Crowd, and Digg (last chance). Brett, thanks for putting all this together week after week.”

Tips: Crusaders, Hurricanes.

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Digger
“It’s show me the money time and we are down to the business end.

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“The Crusaders have had a brilliant season and their clinical performance in dispatching the Highlanders on the weekend should only reaffirm their obvious favouritism, especially after the Chiefs have had to hoof it halfway round the world and then a little more just to turn up in the city. Smart money with the home team.

“The Lions, as well at home, are a formidable obstacle and have everything to play for with a thousand people leaving at season’s end.

“They have had their bad game out of their system against the Sharks and it was most likely the kick up the rear that was required to refocus and sharpen. So the Lions again would be the intelligent play, with the Hurricanes probably still in the air somewhere as I write this.

“But intelligence is not something I have ever been associated with and rightly so, Canes by plenty because it is downright filthy to ever (publicly) not back your own.

“And I’m going the Chiefs because I want to go to a third live Super Final in a row. Careful of those Chiefs, they have a lot to play for themselves given the personal changes they are making – that halves experience may prove crucial.”

Tips: Chiefs, Hurricanes.

Ngani Laumape Wes Goosen Hurricanes Super Rugby Union 2017

AAP Image/SNPA, Ross Setford

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Harry
“Now that my naive Stormers have made their traditional early exit from the playoffs, I can catch Nobes again. I’ve never learnt how to tip against my team.

“Lions and Crusaders, please. Home field advantage.

“The Lions need to score early; their flyhalf is a front runner, only. He is not a grinder. Luckily for them, the Hurricanes start slowly.

“The Sharks are a difficult team to play. They are like brutish Rafael Nadal. The Lions are like mercurial Novak Djokovic.

“I wouldn’t overread the score in the qualifying final. Expect the Canes and the Lions to score three to four tries; it might come down to Ruan Combrinck or Jordie Barrett.

“The Chiefs forwards were taxed by the bully Stormers; I doubt they have gas left in the tank to subdue the Crusaders.”

Tips: Crusaders, Lions.

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Brett
Only death and taxes are certain, but at this time of season, you can pretty comfortably add home-ground advantage and teams falling victim to excruciating travel schedules.

I genuinely wasn’t sure about the Crusaders this time last year, but as soon as I saw it was still dumping it down in Christchurch last Saturday, I knew they’d get the job done. The weather allowed the Crusaders to play the kind of forwards-led, set-piece dominant game that they like, and they certainly were well in form by the end of the game. I can’t see them let anything slip while ever they can keep playing in Christchurch.

Conversely, the Lions were a long way off their best against a Sharks team that really didn’t ask a lot of questions of them. It wasn’t all on Elton Jantjies, but he’s a huge confidence player; the more shots at goal he missed, the more his head sank, and from there, the Lions had lost their spark, their mojo, and their x-factor all in one.

I can’t see them playing that poorly again, because they’ve been too good a team to turn out two ordinary games on the trot at this point in the campaign. The Hurricanes’ record in South Africa is excellent over the last couple of seasons, but the Lions have the benefit of their own beds, their own routines, and hopefully, a few more of their home fans at Ellis Park.

TIPS: Crusaders, Lions.

Get your tips in now – The Crowd’s tips will be revealed Friday evening!

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The sure thing

The one thing we’re all absolutely certain will happen over the course of this weekend. Well, pretty certain…

Digger
“The stadiums will be a lot fuller than last weekend’s efforts and Jordie Barrett will kick one further than Ruan Combrinck.”

Harry
“At least one Barrett will be in the grand final.”

Nobes
“Both games are worth setting my alarm clock?”

Brett
Someone will comment: “Is Super Rugby still going?” and will think they’re the funniest person they know. Snore…

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Bonus: The Players of the Year

With the shadows of the season nearly upon us, I gave each of the guys a conference and a simple task: come up with that conference’s best player.

Digger: Africa 1
“When I consider the four teams across the conference, immediately the player that springs to mind is Siya Kolisi. He has been in excellent form throughout for the Stormers and seems to be far more aggressive and imposing than I can remember in previous seasons.

“Special mention to Ox Nche, who would certainly be my favourite player from that particular conference – a cult hero in the making!”

Brett: Africa 2
I might’ve inadvertently given myself the hardest conference to pick from here, which is low point in clear thinking, but I’m going with Lionel Cronje.

In the space of half a season, the Kings flyhalf went from journeyman to the Springboks squad, inherited the Kings captaincy, led them on a wonderful tour of Australia, and by season’s end had led them a lot further up the ladder than anyone imagined.

Cronje was an okay but not spectacular player for the Brumbies in the Jake White years, a slightly better but still not spectacular player for the Sharks, but had a wonderful season for the Kings. He ran at the line and linked with some really exciting outside backs exceptionally well, defended excellently, and his goal-kicking was quality.

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As the season went on he just better, and so did the Kings with him leading the way.

Nobes: New Zealand
“I am not saying nothing new by finding the New Zealand Conference the most competitive this year. There is so much talent in every one of the five teams that it is unfair to choose one player.

“So, first I must decide in what merit that player is chosen, how can I compare a prop versus a fly-half, or either of them against a fullback and so on.

“As hard this is, I have decided for one player, who leads Super Rugby in carries (215), clean breaks (31), defenders beaten (67) and metres (1304). Also, he came in second for off-loads (28), points (199), and tries (10).

“Probably by those stats you already know that I am talking about Chiefs fullback Damian McKenzie.”

Harry: Australia
“Chris Alcock from the Brumbies tackled like a demon, slowed opponents’ ball without being caught too much, broke tackles when he ran, brought brutish balance, and generally just got busy.”

Got a different Player of the Year in your conference? Let us know in the comments below, and enjoy your rugby this weekend!

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