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Crusaders vs Chiefs preview: Super Rugby semi-final prediction

27th July, 2017
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The Crusaders are on fire. (AP Photo/Mark Baker)
Roar Guru
27th July, 2017
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2869 Reads

The first week of Super Rugby is behind us and safe to say, it played out as expected

Three New Zealand teams have progressed to the semi-finals along with a lone South African team.

In the first semi-final the Crusaders will take on the Chiefs in Christchurch in what is going to be a blockbuster game that will leave Australian rugby fans such as myself feeling very nervous about the upcoming international fixtures.

Continuing on from their dominant season, the Crusaders kept the Highlanders scoreless in last weekend’s quarter-final. The terrible conditions did nothing to stop the Crusaders’ attack, especially in the forwards where they were particularly dominant.

The Chiefs, who had the more intimidating task of taking on the Stormers in Cape Town, delivered a scrappy, hard-fought win to secure their spot in the last four.

Teams
The Crusaders will field a very strong side with plenty of All Black experience, especially in the forward pack. Owen Franks, Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read were instrumental in their pack’s dominance against the Highlanders and should continue their outstanding play.

Israel Dagg and Ryan Crotty headline the experienced backline, while Seta Tamanivalu will look to continue his attacking prowess which was limited due to the horrendous conditions last weekend.

Tamanivalu has scored 7 tries and made 706 metres for the Crusaders this season.

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(AP Photo/Mark Baker)

After resting a number of players for the final match of the regular season, the Chiefs named a full strength team against the Stormers. Brodie Retalick and Sam Cane will look to nullify the Crusader advantage in the forward pack after performing well in South Africa.

In what will be Dave Rennie’s final season with the club, the Chiefs will try to unleash their dangerous backline, which struggled to perform against the Stormers.

Aaron Cruden, veteran Stephen Donald and leading try-scorer James Lowe will look to add on the team’s 199 clean lines breaks in the 2017 season.

Key matchups
The big matchup in the backline is between the two fullbacks, Damian McKenzie for the Chiefs and David Havili for the Crusaders.

Both star players are dangerous in attack, deadly in broken play and solid in defence.

Havili has crossed the line eight time for the Crusaders this season while making 1138 metres off 164 carries, while McKenzie has scored six times for the Chiefs. McKenzie will also likely retain the kicking duties after saving his side’s season in Cape Town.

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In the forwards, the Crusaders hold a very slight statistical advantage, with a 96% ruck succession rate compared to the Chiefs’ 95%.

Keiren Read will play against Michael Leitch in a battle of number eights while the other key matchup will be between the two All Black locks, Brodie Retallick for the Chiefs and Sam Whitelock for the Crusaders.

History
The two sides most recently met in May this year where the Crusaders edged past their opposition 31-24. However, history is on the Chiefs’ side with the Waikato team winning the matchup on the four previous occasions.

While the Crusaders are the most successful Super Rugby team, winning the competition seven times during an era of dominance spanning back to 1998, the Chiefs have had more recent success winning back-to-back titles in 2013 and 2014.

Prediction

It is damn hard to pick to predict this game; both teams have played outstanding rugby this season and it is shaping up as a fantastic contest.

The Crusaders have come off a near unbeaten Super Rugby season and will enjoy a home ground advantage in this weekend’s semi-final. The experience and talent are especially noticeable in their forward pack, which will set a platform for their exciting backline to work from.

The Chiefs are the underdogs but go to Christchurch with history on their side. Though they may be wearing after their inter-continental quarter final matchup, the livewire team should never be written off, especially with the like of McKenzie and Lowe in their player ranks.

While their team statistics are eerily similar, it’s hard to see past the exceptional season and winning record that the Crusaders have put together this year. The men from Christchurch will put their recent losses to the Chiefs behind them, not letting them stop their run to the Super Rugby final.

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Crusaders 33-22.

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