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This week saw a lot of important games played out across the rift. As the standings continue to shift with playoffs so close, rematches can be the difference between first and second, and having the opportunity to go to worlds or watching from home.
Here are the standings as we come into our last week of play:
1. Immortals (IMT): 11-3 in matches; 23-13 in games
2. Team SoloMid (TSM): 10-4; 22-10
2. CounterLogic Gaming (CLG): 10-4; 22-14
4. Team Dignitas (DIG): 8-6; 22-17
4. Cloud9 (C9): 8-6; 20-16
4. Team EnvyUs (NV): 8-6; 20-18
7. Echo Fox (FOX): 4-10; 13-21
7. FlyQuest (FLY): 4-10; 13-22
7. Team Liquid (TL): 4-10; 13-22
10. Phoenix1 (P1): 3-11; 13-22
Special shoutout to IMT for their win over CLG; while they are a match win up, they also took the head-to-head win, and with their remaining strength of schedule fairly low, they have a very good chance of holding first place into playoffs.
Also, I know I got on the P1 hype train, but I’m starting to think I want to get off it; they went 1-4 in games both this and last weekend.
Now, before I go into the whole Dardoch thing, I do want to go briefly into strength of schedule. I’ve done some pretty basic calculations based on absolute rank of opponents remaining (i.e. taking all tiebreakers into account, which results in a slightly different finishing order to the official one above) to see what the comparative strength of schedule is for each team across the league:
IMT remaining strength of schedule: 6.5
TSM: 6.25
CLG: 5.5
NV: 2.75
C9: 7
DIG: 5
FOX: 5.5
FLY: 6.5
TL: 5
P1: 5
If a team’s rank is a higher number than their than their SoS, then they are playing against stronger teams; if it’s lower, their opponents should be weaker.
Take NV for example; despite being fourth, their final four games are against IMT, TSM, CLG and C9, resulting in almost the highest possible strength of schedule remaining. C9 by comparison will be playing NV, but also FOX, FLY and TL, resulting in a comparatively low strength of schedule.
Though the NA LCS is in a bit of an everyone-beats-everyone situation, this gives us a very rough indication of where we could end up in two weeks time.
I wouldn’t put any money on any of these outcomes, but it’s a potentially useful bit of data; NV are probably at the highest risk of slipping a spot or two, while TSM actually has a slight advantage over CLG in pushing to take first (never mind the head to head).
Even though it doesn’t tell us anything firm, it’s useful to keep in mind when we think about where the final standings might be. But onto the main event: Dardoch’s continued musical chairs.
If you don’t follow league news, CLG announced this week that Dardoch has moved back to TL. Their statement did not mince words:
“We won our two LCS Championships on the foundation of teamwork and understanding… Joshua “Dardoch” Hartnett did not align with [this]… Unfortunately Dardoch was unwilling to adhere to the set of standards expected of every member of the team.”
Pretty damning, honestly, and it sounds like next to nothing has changed in the past year or so. Cast your mind back; you may remember a statement from Team Liquid in May 2016 saying he had been suspended for “insubordinate behaviour.” After being signed on a three-year contract with IMT, he was swapped to CLG after just one split.
Now, we don’t know how long this has been boiling beneath the surface. CLG have been chilling in the top two all split long, with three weeks where they won both their matches. Dardoch’s replacement, Omargod, has won two of his four games so far; not at all bad for his rookie games, but not yet up to the standard set by the rest of the team.
For anyone not up to date with TL’s half of this, earlier in the week they signed ex-ROX Tigers Midlaner Mickey. The problem for them then became the fact that they can only field two imports at a time, but had Reignover and Piglet already; one of them had to be benched to make room for Mickey. Really, a very well-timed acquisition.
I’ve read a lot of speculation on how this exchange went down. Were CLG trying to get rid of him? Or did TL really want a non-import jungler so that they could pick up Mickey, and approach CLG for him?
Obviously we can’t answer that, but my strong gut feeling is that it was the former. Only a few weeks ago, Dardoch called TL “hot garbage” on stream, elaborating that he doesn’t “have a lot of respect for Liquid, as an organisation, or players, or team.” I can’t imagine he would voluntarily go back to the team unless it was his only shot at a starting position.
In fact, I’d go further; my (totally unsubstantiated) theory is that this is like P1 with Meteos/Inori. CLG wanted a 6-man roster, and Dardoch wasn’t interested in being anything other than the starter. He’s said himself that he was surprised at being subbed out at first; once he realised that CLG wanted to keep doing that, he either threatened to quit and CLG called his bluff, or CLG realised he would make a big deal out of it and decided to let him move to a different team.
Again, that’s all just a guess on my part, but it seems very likely to me based on how this has played out over the last couple weeks. I absolutely believe that toxic players can reform – look at Jensen or Flame, both of whom were known for their extreme toxicity a few years ago, but by all accounts have matured into excellent teammates. The question is, will Dardoch follow suit?
Remember, TL don’t have anything to save themselves from that a late-season roster change could avoid: there are no relegations this split. At four wins below 6th place with four games left, they would have to win every match, and one of the teams at 8-6 would have to lose every match, to even force a tiebreaker.
Even if TL bought the entirety of SKT (or KT Rolster or Longzhu, who are currently tied for first in the LCK), including support staff, and they were allowed to field them all, they would find it very very difficult to get into playoffs, with basically everything relying on the performance of other teams.
To me, it seems that TL expect that they will be given one of the franchisee spots – which probably will be the case – and are accumulating players in preparation the 10-man team requirement.
It’s all a bit of a surprise, and there’s no knowing how Dardoch will change or grow into the future. Add to this change that TL also signed Insanity (and Mickey as mentioned earlier), TSM have (finally) signed MrRallez, and P1 has picked up Selfie and Wiggily, we’ve got one of the biggest fortnights in roster pickups that I can remember, and I feel like there’s one or two more that I’ve missed.
Will Dardoch’s move be worth it for TL and CLG? Was one of the other moves more important, or is it all much of a muchness this late in the split?