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2017 AFL season: Round 20 preview

(AAP Image/David Moir)
Roar Guru
2nd August, 2017
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Only four rounds remain until the finals, with three matches this round to involve teams currently in the eight, including a Friday night blockbuster which has had its star power decreased as well as another blockbuster Showdown which will stop all of South Australia.

Friday night’s match between the Geelong Cats and Sydney Swans has been decimated by the suspension of reigning Brownlow medallist Patrick Dangerfield, but should still be worth watching, as well as the aforementioned Showdown between the Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide.

Meanwhile, the battle to avoid the wooden spoon continues with the Brisbane Lions, North Melbourne and Carlton also involved in pivotal matches this weekend, while Hawthorn will very likely make its final appearance at the MCG for this season against Richmond on Sunday.

Here is your full guide to Round 20.

Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans
The suspension of reigning Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield has eliminated the gloss and intrigue from Friday night’s showdown between the Geelong Cats and Sydney Swans.

Dangerfield’s one-match suspension has cost him the chance to become the first man since Robert Harvey in 1997-8 to win back-to-back Charlies, leaving the AFL with a major embarrassment if he was to top the voting at the end of Brownlow Medal night.

Patrick Dangerfield Geelong Cats AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

It is tradition for the previous year’s medallist to crown his successor when counting is complete on the evening. In the event that someone successfully defends his Brownlow Medal, Harvey would have the honour of crowning the dual Medallist, being the last man to win it back-to-back.

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As a matter of fact, Harvey won the first of his two medals in 1997 despite polling fewer votes than Chris Grant, who was ruled out after being suspended for striking early that season.

While Dangerfield’s absence has reduced the Cats’ chances of victory, on the flipside it has boosted the Swans’ chances of a top-four finish, which took a hit when it lost to Hawthorn by six points for the second time this season.

It was the second defeat for the Swans since the end of April, and while they could still mathematically claim the double chance, they may want to focus on finishing anywhere between fifth and sixth, which if they do will see them host an elimination final at the SCG.

Jake Lloyd and Gary Rohan could both return for the trip to Simonds Stadium after they missed last week due to injury, while Kurt Tippett is a chance of returning after showing strong form in the reserves.

Their recent record against the Cats is also impressive, having won four of their last five, including both times last year, in round 16 and in the preliminary final.

While the Cats will be without their superstar talisman in Patrick Dangerfield, they remain hard to beat at Kardinia Park and as a matter of fact haven’t been beaten at home since the Swans visit in July last year.

Still, the Cats can get the job done

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Prediction: Geelong by eight points

GWS Giants vs Melbourne Demons
The GWS Giants contest their final match in Canberra for the year when they host a Melbourne side who will be desperate to book their berth in September.

The Giants extinguished the prospect of a winless July by defeating a dogged Fremantle side by 12 points last Saturday to keep their chances of a top-four finish alive, with which comes the all-important double chance.

But, they will have to make do without star forward Jeremy Cameron for at least the next three matches after he suffered a recurrence of the hamstring injury which kept him out of the losses to the Swans and Richmond in rounds 17 and 18.

However, star recruit Brett Deledio looks set to finally make his GWS debut after a persistent calf injury kept him sidelined for more than twelve months. Two matches in the reserves was enough for him to get the call-up many fans have been waiting for since his arrival from Richmond last October.

Brett Deledio GWS Giants AFL 2017

(Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Media/Getty Images)

He comes in at a crucial time for the club, which despite a horror injury toll and some poor form still sit in third place on the ladder, a berth in September far from confirmed.

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They come up against a Melbourne side which again dropped a match it should’ve won, losing to North Melbourne by four points in Hobart last Saturday despite being near-unanimous favourites.

The Dees will be without forward Jesse Hogan after he suffered a collarbone injury in the loss to the Roos, all but putting an end to what has been a horrid season for the 2015 Rising Star winner.

However, they should get co-captain Nathan Jones back after missing nearly two months with injury, and his leadership and experience will be crucial as the club looks to lock in their first finals berth since 2006.

It promises to be a close match and I have the Giants sneaking home.

Prediction: GWS Giants by ten points.

Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues
One of the AFL’s traditional rivalries will continue when Essendon and Carlton lock horns at the MCG.

As expected, the Bombers have improved significantly in 2017, winning nine games to this point of the season – that’s three times as many matches as they won last year, of which one was against Carlton in round 23.

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Forward Joe Daniher is also in the box seat to become the first Bomber since the legendary Matthew Lloyd in 2003 to claim the Coleman Medal.

Despite his six goals last Sunday, it was not enough as the Bombers went down to the Western Bulldogs by five goals, leaving their finals hopes hanging by a thread.

John Worsfold’s men will get no better chance than to attempt to break back into the eight when they face the Blues in a match they will be expected to win.

Once again the Blues appear to be finishing the season poorly, having not won since defeating the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium in round 13.

However, they did beat the Bombers earlier this season and while they are out of finals contention, they would love nothing more than to derail their great rivals’ September dreams.

Do that, and they will boast two wins over the Bombers for the first time since 2001. However, the red-and-black should get home in this one.

Prediction: Essendon by 22 points.

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Brisbane Lions vs Western Bulldogs
Perhaps the 59-point thrashing by the Crows at the Oval in round 16 could have been the kick up the backside the Western Bulldogs needed.

Since then, the Bulldogs have breathed life back into their premiership defence, defeating Carlton, the Gold Coast Suns and Essendon to keep alive their chances of playing finals for a third consecutive year.

Last Sunday they made a mockery of what was supposed to be a tough task against the Bombers, kicking the last four goals of the game after the Dons had threatened to steal victory late in the final quarter.

This Saturday night they fly north for the second time in three weeks to face a Brisbane Lions side which, despite struggling at the bottom of the ladder with just four wins, have been playing with more spirit than in years past.

Chris Fagan will also have some of his younger troops in Alex Witherden, Hugh McCluggage and Eric Hipwood return after the trio were rested from the 68-point loss to West Coast in Perth last Sunday.

He’ll also be buoyed by the fact the Lions have a good recent record against the Western Bulldogs at home, but that will count for nothing this Saturday night with the Dogs expected to fly home to Melbourne with the four points.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by 30 points.

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Robert Bob Murphy Western Bulldogs AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Collingwood Magpies
North Melbourne hosts Collingwood for the first time since 2013 as their bid to avoid the wooden spoon continues.

The lead-up to their clash against the Dees in Hobart last week was dominated by talk that the club was tanking so as to ensure they would receive the number one draft pick at AFL Draft.

However, it was a case of “Tanking? What tanking?” as the Roos picked up their fifth win of the year, and second over the Dees in 2017, showing that it is not setting out to improve their position in the draft.

While Brad Scott’s men have struggled this year, they did notably play one great match as evidenced in round seven when it destroyed the then-undefeated Adelaide Crows in Hobart by 59 points.

They’ll be hoping to revisit that form against the Pies, who blew a 51-point lead to be pegged to a draw against the Crows at the MCG, the result all but ensuring they’ll miss finals for the fourth consecutive year.

That could also spell the end of coach Nathan Buckley, though the club has reiterated that his position will not be reviewed until their season ends with a rare Saturday afternoon clash against Melbourne at the MCG.

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With nothing to play for in the final month of their season, all the Pies can do is play out the season, and with matches against Port Adelaide, the Geelong Cats and Melbourne to come after this weekend, they can set out to sabotage those clubs’ finals preparations.

But first thing’s first – they need to take care of the Roos, which I can see them doing here.

Prediction: Collingwood by 14 points

Fremantle vs Gold Coast Suns
A week after the Brisbane Lions lost to the West Coast Eagles in Perth, it’s the turn of the Gold Coast Suns to make the daunting trip west when they face Fremantle at Domain Stadium.

The Suns have not been able to take a trick as far as their injury toll is concerned, with Gary Ablett a late scratching from their 33-point loss to the Tigers last week due to a hamstring injury.

Despite this, coach Rodney Eade would’ve been happy with how his side played out the match, but the fact of the matter remains that the veteran coach is likely to be given his marching orders at year’s end.

In the three years he has been at Metricon Stadium, the Suns have regressed after finishing 12th in 2014 under foundation coach Guy McKenna. To date it remains their highest finish since they entered the AFL in 2011.

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While they have won their last two matches against Fremantle, both last year, the Suns will start underdogs.

Gold Coast Suns AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Dave Hunt)

The Dockers’ finals hopes were all but killed off when they lost to the GWS Giants in Sydney last week, but they didn’t go down without a fight, threatening a major upset after leading by 15 points at three-quarter-time.

They were then within a goal of stealing victory late in the final quarter until they were put out of their misery by Josh Kelly with two minutes remaining.

It shows that Ross Lyon’s men are intent on playing out the season even though finals is now a near impossibility, needing to win their final four matches by sizable margins if they are to sneak into September.

The question now remains – can they finish the year strongly?

Prediction: Fremantle by 18 points.

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St Kilda Saints vs West Coast Eagles
The first match on Sunday will see St Kilda kick off a four-match run in Melbourne as Nick Riewoldt sets off on the final leg of his illustrious career, the former Saints captain having announced this week that he will retire at the end of this season.

Barring a Western Bulldogs-like run, Riewoldt is likely to bow out as arguably one of the greatest players never to have won a premiership, joining the likes of Lenny Hayes, Tony Lockett, Robert Harvey and Nathan Buckley, among many others, as those who never got to taste the ultimate success.

The 34-year-old is likely to return for the Saints’ clash against the West Coast Eagles after being rested from the heartbreaking two-point loss to Port Adelaide at the weekend.

It is a clash Alan Richardson’s men must win if they are to force their way back into the eight, the Saints having dropped to eleventh after three straight losses, which followed a sequence of four straight wins.

On the flipside, this will be the Eagles’ last appearance in Melbourne for the season and if they are selected, it will double as the final match in the Victorian capital for Matt Priddis and Sam Mitchell, both of whom are to call it quits at the end of the year.

The club’s poor form in Melbourne this year has been well-documented, losing to last year’s wooden spooners Essendon by 61 points in round nine yet were able to defeat reigning premiers the Western Bulldogs in round 15.

Last week, they forced their way back into the eight by thrashing the Brisbane Lions by 68 points at home, but whether they can bring that form across the Nullarbor remains to be seen.

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But while they haven’t lost to the Saints anywhere since 2011, it’ll be hard seeing the Eagles back it up on enemy soil.

Prediction: St Kilda by four points.

Richmond Tigers vs Hawthorn Hawks
The other match in Melbourne on Sunday sees Richmond face Hawthorn in what could have been soon-to-be retiree Luke Hodge’s final match at the MCG.

That was until he was rubbed out by the judiciary for striking Sydney’s Tom Papley last Friday night, in what would turn out to be his final outing on the hallowed turf, unless the Hawks can somehow force their way into the eight by winning their last four matches by sizable margins.

The six-point win over the Swans last Friday night continued the Hawks’ impressive form since the round 13 bye, in which they toppled ladder leaders Adelaide, drew with the GWS Giants and came to within a kick of defeating the Cats.

This Sunday, they can sabotage another club’s run to the finals when it faces Richmond, who haven’t been placed as high on the ladder as they are now since 2001 when it lost a preliminary final to the Brisbane Lions.

It was a case of “no Riewoldt, no worries” as the Tigers scored a crucial 33-point win over the Gold Coast Suns at Metricon Stadium last Saturday night, the win highlighted by a breakout performance from Jason Castagna, who scored the AFL Rising Star nomination for round 19 with three goals.

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Despite their impressive season to date, questions will be raised as to how they will fare in September, given they haven’t won a final since 2001 and have lost four of their six matches by single-figure margins.

Their recent record against the Hawks is also poor, having lost three of their past four meetings dating back to 2014. Therefore, I’m backing the Hawks to win even though they’ll be missing Luke Hodge to suspension.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 18 points

Tom Mitchell Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

Adelaide Crows vs Port Adelaide
The final match of the round sees the Adelaide Crows and Port Adelaide lock horns in the 43rd installation of the Showdown.

The Crows have won the past four Showdowns, dating back to the Memorial Showdown in mid-2015, to leave the rivalry locked at 21 wins apiece since it started in 1997. This includes their last meeting, which they won by 17 points.

Don Pyke’s men should consider themselves lucky that they were able to even force a draw against Collingwood at the MCG last Sunday, after they had trailed by 51 points early in the third quarter.

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While they should get Eddie Betts, Jake Lever and Brad Crouch back after the trio missed the match against the Pies, a repeat performance against the Power will be severely punished at all costs.

For the men from Alberton, this is their last chance to prove themselves against a top-eight side, with each of their last three matches coming against sides currently in the bottom half of the ladder.

The closest Ken Hinkley’s men have come to beating a true contender was when they lost by just two points to the Geelong Cats in round ten.

Given its’ dismal record against top eight sides this season, many have suggested that the Power have become the new flat-track bullies of the AFL, also given the manner it has dominated lower-ranked opposition.

However, as they always do, and even in their darkest times, the Power will be keen to lift for the second Showdown of the year, with the possibility that the two teams could once again meet in September, as they did in 2005.

In the end, I can see the Crows taking the lead in the head-to-head for the first time since 2000 with what should be another convincing win.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 18 points.

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