It’s all the refs' fault, right? Here are the actual facts

Expert

2nd August, 2017

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NRL referees are under the blowtorch as usual. (AAP Image/Action Photographics, Robb Cox)

Tim Gore

Expert

2nd August, 2017

139

2741 Reads

It is a football fan, player and coaches’ sacred right to blame a loss on the referees.

The great thing about it is we can single out individual – or even a collection of – decisions to justify our appropriation of ultimate blame.

I’ve been guilty of this exact thing myself.

Of course, we all strongly suspect that the refs are biased towards the home side and that they do things like even up the penalty counts.

Rather than looking at the individual occurrences that have caused outrage, I decided to crunch the numbers to see if these things are substantiated, as well as to examine the performances of the lead referees themselves.

So here are the statistics for the first grade lead referees for NRL season 2017.

The refs are blowing more penalties than ever!

No, no they aren’t. There has actually been a decline. Have a look at this.

	2017	2016	2015	2014
Total matches	152	201	201	201
Total penalties	1921	2718	2610	2585
Season Avg	12.6	13.5	13	12.9

There is a rough pattern to how many penalties are awarded in a match.

Total penalties in match	Times occurred	Home side won	Away side won
22	1	1	0
20	1	1	0
19	4	0	4
18	10	5	5
17	6	4	2
16	8	4	4
15	16	10	6
14	15	11	4
13	14	10	4
12	15	6	9
11	13	3	10
10	17	11	6
9	17	8	9
8	4	3	1
7	6	4	2
6	3	1	2
5	1	1	0
Total	152	81	71

70.4 per cent of all Rugby League games this year have featured between nine and 15 penalties.

If the count has been 13-15 the home side is more likely to have won. If the count is 9-12 the away side is more likely to have won.

The home team gets more penalties

Yes. Yes they do. Here is the proof.

	Total	%
Total home team penalties	1021	53.10%
Total away team penalties	900	46.90%

First half penalties	1069	55.60%
Second half penalties	852	44.40%

First half penalties home	562	55%
Second half penalties home	459	45%

First half penalties away	507	56.30%
Second half penalties Away	393	43.70%

Further, this applies to both halves of the game fairly uniformly.

What is interesting to note is that distinctly more penalties are awarded in first halves of games than the second. A bit of whistle swallowing perhaps? Makes it a better risk to play offside in those dying moments when a field goal is on methinks…

The home side wins more games

There is a bit to this it seems. Whether it is the home crowd getting on the back of the refs or behind their own players, or a mixture of both – it is clear that the home side wins more games:

• The home side has won 81 games
• The away side has won 71 games

Home ground bias

This seems to be an even clearer trend when it comes to penalty counts:
• 87 times home side won penalty count (57.23%)
• 14 times count was even (9.21%)
• 51 times away side won penalty count (33.56%)

Winning the penalty count = winning the game?

Won Penalty Count and won match	76 games	50%
Even penalty count	14 games	9.20%
Lost Penalty Count and won match	62 games	40.80%

So, no more than half the time has winning the penalty count aligned with winning the game. So while penalties can be momentum killers and have big effects on games, it seems that the home ground advantage is a bigger factor overall.

Here is the home-and-away breakdown of those stats:
• 49 times the home side won the count and the game
• 23 times the home side lost the penalty count but won the game
• 8 times the home side has won the game when the penalty count was even
• 6 times the away side has won the game when the penalty count was even
• 27 times the away side won the count and the match
• 38 Times the away side lost the penalty count but won the match

The golden boys and the others

You think all referees are the same? Think again. While there are strong similarities between the way they go about things, there are also lots of differences – and Tony Archer clearly has his favourites.

Just have a look at this:

Referee	Games	Free to air	Golden point
Atkins	20	11 (55%)	2 (10%)
Cecchin	16	11 (68.75%)	2 (12.5%)
Klein	20	10 (50%)	0
Cummins	20	9 (45%)	2 (10%)
G Sutton	16	9 (56.25%)	1 (6.25%)
Perenara	20	4 (20%)	1 (5%)
Badger	18	3 (16.6%)	0
Gee	11	2 (18.2%)	0
Munro	8	0 (0%)	0
Reynolds	3	0 (0%)	0
Total	152	59 (38.8%)	8 (5.25%)

There are three ways that you can tell who Archer’s favourites are:
1. How many first grade games they’ve done;
2. How many rep games they’ve done; and
3. How many times they have been given games that are on free-to-air.

While every game is televised, the free-to-air games get the biggest audiences and it is clear that – in general – Archer has strong feelings about who puts his team’s best feet forward.

Henry Perenara and Gavin Badger are regular first grade selections, however, they rarely get the free-to-air gigs. David Munro, Gavin Reynolds and Adam Gee aren’t automatic selections for the lead referee spot and have just two free-to-air games between them. They are clearly at the bottom of the pecking order.

Then comes those competing to be the Alpha Wolves: Ashley Klein, Gerry Sutton, Ben Cummins, Grant Atkins and Matt Cecchin.

Last year Ben Cummins was on top of the heap. A first grade regular, he did all three Origin games, four Internationals and the NRL grand final in 2016. This season, while he has done 20 First grade games, he has done no internationals or State of Origin. Further, only 45 per cent of his games have been on free-to-air.

These stats suggest Cummins seems to have fallen out of favour with Tony Archer.

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Ash Klein is slightly better off. While he too has done no rep matches, he has done 20 first grade games as lead ref and half of them have been on free-to-air.

That leaves us with Archer’s golden three: Grant Atkins, Gerry Sutton and Matt Cecchin.

Atkins just clicked over 200 games as a first grade official and over 100 as referee. One of the youngest of the current crop, he seems to have been earmarked as the next big thing. He hasn’t done any rep matches, but 55 per cent of his 20 matches have featured on free-to-air.

Gerry Sutton is the number two ranked referee. This is delineated by the fact that he is the pocket ref in the big rep games this season. However, he has done all the Origin games, the Test Match (meaning he has actually done 20 games all up), and his 16 NRL games have been free-to-air games 56.25 per cent of the time.

Then there is the main man: Matt Cecchin.

The longest serving of the current mob, he started reffing back in 2001. And he is very good indeed.

In 2016 he didn’t get the Origin gigs but found himself the lead ref for the grand final. Every post has been a winner this season, getting all the top gigs and 68.75 per cent of his NRL games are on free-to-air. There is no doubt he is Archer’s golden boy.

Golden point

It’s probably just a coincidence, but see how virtually all the golden point games have been done by the top referees.

Who awards the most penalties?

Referee	Games	Total penalties	Average penalties	Winner won penalty count	Winner won penalties %	Sin bins
Cecchin	16	248	15.5	8	50%	6
Perenara	20	275	13.8	10	50%	6
Atkins	20	267	13.4	12	60%	4
Klein	20	252	12.6	14	70%	4
Munro	8	99	12.4	5	62.50%	2
G Sutton	16	194	12.1	7	43.75%	3
Gee	11	130	11.8	8	72.70%	1
Cummins	20	227	11.4	9	45%	4
Badger	18	198	11	8	44.40%	3
Reynolds	3	31	10.3	1	33.30%	1
Total	152	1921	12.6	82/152	54%	35

Given the great hullabaloo that was made of Cecchin’s magnificent performance in Origin One when only six penalties were awarded, I am very surprised to see that he easily awards the most penalties of any first grade referee.

Further, along with Henry Perenara, he has sin binned the most players in 2017 (six).

Perenara – whom the Sea Eagles fans have placed a bounty on following the penalty count at Panther Park in Round 18 – has awarded the most penalties with 275.

Seven out of the ten first grade referees sit on or below the season game average of 12.6 penalties. Of the regular first grade whistle blowers, Ben Cummins and Gavin Badger award the fewest penalties.

When it comes to the impact of the penalty count on the result, when your side is being reffed by Grant Atkins, David Munro and especially Ash Klein and Adan Gee; win the penalty count you are more likely to win.

The result of the penalty count makes no difference if Perenara or Cecchin are in charge. However, if Gerry Sutton, Gavin Badger or Ben Cummins are in charge, winning the penalty count means you are more likely to lose the game.

The highest penalty counts

Here are the games in 2017 that have had the most penalties awarded in them:

Most penalties in a game
Round	Referee	Home side	Away side	Total penalties	Penalty count	Score	Sin Bin?
Round 7	Cecchin	Bulldogs	Rabbitohs	22	12-10	24-9	0
Round 3	G Sutton	Storm	Broncos	20	13-7	14-12	0
Round 3	Atkins	Panthers	Roosters	19	9-10	12-14	0
Round 8	Atkins	Raiders	Sea Eagles	19	10-9	18-20	0
Round 3	Perenara	Cowboys	Sea Eagles	19	10-9	8-30	0
Round 21	Perenara	Rabbitohs	Raiders	19	10-9	18-32	1

• Note that the Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles feature twice.
• Note that Perenara and Atkins feature twice
• Note that lead referee Matt Cecchin leads the pack, with Gerry Sutton right behind him.

The lowest penalty counts

Here are the games in 2017 that have had the fewest penalties awarded in them:

Least penalties in a game
Round	Referee	Home side	Away side	Total penalties	Penalty count	Score	Sin Bin?
Round 12	Gee	Warriors	Knights	5	3-2	28-10	0
Round 7	Badger	Knights	Roosters	6	5-1	6-24	0
Round 4	Cummins	Wests Tigers	Storm	6	5-1	14-22	0
Round 15	Atkins	Eels	Dragons	6	1-5	24-10	0

• Note that the Knights feature twice.
• Note that three of the four games feature very lopsided penalty counts.
• Note that there were no sin binnings in these games.
• Note that in all four games, the total score is below the 2017 game average total score of 39.75.

The referees home and away

Referee	Games	Home side won count	Away side won count	Even count	Home side won match	Away side won match
Atkins	20	16 (80%)	4 (20%)	0	10 (50%)	10 (50%)
Cecchin	16	13 (81.25%)	2 (12.5%)	1 (6.25%)	5 (31.25%)	11 (68.75%)
Cummins	20	10 (50%)	9 (45%)	1 (5%)	11 (55%)	9 (45%)
Perenara	20	10 (50%)	8 (40%)	2 (10%)	13 (65%)	7 (35%)
G Sutton	16	10 (62.5%)	3 (18.75%)	3 (18.75%)	9 (56.25%)	7 (43.75%)
Klein	20	8 (40%)	9 (45%)	3 (15%)	14 (70%)	6 (30%)
Badger	18	8 (44.4%)	7 (38.9%)	3 (16.7%)	8 (44.4%)	10 (55.6%)
Gee	11	7 (63.6%)	3 (27.3%)	1 (9.1%)	6 (54.5%)	5 (45.5%)
Munro	8	4 (50%)	4 (50%)	0	4 (50%)	4 (50%)
Reynolds	3	1 (33.3%)	2 (66.6%)	0	1 (33.3%)	2 (66.6%)
Total	152	87 (57%)	51 (33.6%)	14 (9.2%)	81 (53.3%)	71 (46.7%)

There are lots of stats in this table but three stand out for me in particular.

1. If you are the home team and Matt Cecchin is your ref, you are an 81.25 per cent chance to win the penalty count but 68.75 per cent likely to lose the game. The lesson: if your team is into cynical penalties to defend their line when away from home then Cecchin is the ref you want – or so it seems.

2. If you are the home side you want either Ash Klein or Henry Perenara to be the ref.

3. Atkins, Cummins and Gerry Sutton are the referees most likely to oversee a lopsided penalty count – and not Henry Perenara as the Sea Eagles fans would like us to believe.

First and second half counts, and evening them up

Referee	Average penalties	Total penalties	Total 1st half penalties	Average 1st half penalties	Total 2nd half penalties	Average second half penalties	Even ups
Perenara	13.75	275	157	7.8	118	5.9	2
Cecchin	15.5	248	121	7.6	127	8	2
Gee	11.8	130	82	7.5	48	4.36	1
Atkins	13.4	267	145	7.25	122	6.1	5
Cummins	11.4	227	139	7	88	4.4	1
Klein	12.6	252	135	6.8	117	5.8	4
G Sutton	12.1	194	106	6.6	88	5.5	4
Munro	12.4	99	52	6.5	47	5.9	2
Reynolds	10.3	31	19	6.4	12	4	0
Badger	11	198	113	6.2	85	4.7	4
Total	12.6	1921	1069	7	852	5.6	25/152 (16.4%)

As you can again see, the referees clearly give away more penalties in the first half than the second. Only Matt Cecchin goes against this rule.

Henry Perenara is the king of the first half penalties, whereas Gavin Badger blows the least in the first stanza.

Matt Cecchin, in spite of having reffed four fewer NRL games this season than Badger, Atkins, Perenara and Klein, has blown more second half penalties in the second half. Ben Cummins is the man most likely to have lost his whistle at half time.

There is a large school of thought that if the penalty count is lopsided at half time that referees deliberately try to even up the count in the second stanza.

I’ve carefully examined the stats and can make a case for 25 of the 152 games to the end of Round 21 falling into this category. That is 16.4 per cent of the games. Grant Atkins reffed five of these games. Klein, Gerry Sutton and Gavin Badger four apiece.

Bear in mind that there is also a school of thought that the more subtle referees keep the counts balanced throughout the games.

The lopsided counts

Here are the most uneven penalty counts so far this season:

Most lopsided penalty counts
Round	Referee	Home side	Away Side	Penalty Count	Final Score	Sin bin?
Round 18	Perenara	Panthers	Sea Eagles	12-4	16-8	0
Round 1	Cummins	Cowboys	Raiders	11-4	20-16	1
Round 6	Atkins	Cowboys	Wests Tigers	9-3	16-26	0
Round 3	Cummins	Sharks	Dragons	3-9	10-6	0
Round 16	Cummins	Sharks	Sea Eagles	9-3	18-35	0
Round 20	Atkins	Broncos	Bulldogs	9-3	42-12	1
Round 3	G Sutton	Storm	Broncos	13-7	14-12	0
Round 6	G Sutton	Broncos	Roosters	8-2	32-8	0
Round 5	Klein	Storm	Panthers	6-12	28-6	0

• It is clear that Ben Cummins is not concerned about officiating a lopsided penalty count.
• Atkins and Gerry Sutton also feature twice.
• Matt Cecchin does not feature on this list.

Which referees have the biggest scoring games?

Referee	Average total game points	Total game points	Total Home Score	Average home score	Total Away Score	Average away score
Munro	49.25	394	192	24	202	25.25
Reynolds	44.33	133	62	20.66	71	23.66
Klein	44.2	884	456	22.8	428	21.4
Gee	41.36	455	232	21.1	233	20.3
Atkins	39.45	789	401	20	388	19.4
Perenara	39.15	783	413	20.65	370	18.5
G Sutton	38	609	299	18.7	310	19.4
Cecchin	37.4	599	291	18.2	308	19.5
Cummins	36.8	735	366	18.3	369	18.5
Badger	36.7	661	303	16.8	358	19.9
Total	39.75	6042	3015	19.8	3027	19.9

• If you want to see a game with lots of points scores then you want Dave Munro with the whistle. His average is ten points over the average.
• Conversely, lead referees Cecchin and Sutton oversee games that feature less than the season average.
• Gavin Badger is the man you want if lower scores are your thing.
• Slightly more points have been scored by the away sides in 2017.

I hope that gives you all a much better insight into the individual and overall performances of the NRL referees.

Next week I’ll look at how each referee has interacted with each team in 2017.

Let me know if there are any refereeing stats you’d like to know and I’ll see if I can dig them up.

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Tim Gore

Expert

Tim has been an NRL statistician for ABC Radio Grandstand since 1999, primarily as part of their Canberra coverage. Tim has loved rugby league since Sterlo was a kid with lots of hair but was cursed with having no personal sporting ability whatsoever. He couldn't take a hit in footy, was a third division soccer player making up numbers, plays off 41 in golf and is possibly the world's worst cricketer ever. He has always been good at arguing the point though and he has a great memory of what happened.