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There’s talking points a plenty tonight as the red and white of Sydney travel to Kardinia Park to face the top two fancies Geelong. No filler this week, because this one looks a cracker.
Before we get to the game itself we need to address the elephant in the room. For all the talk of Geelong being a ‘one-man team’, that ‘if you take Patrick Dangerfield out, they’re nothing’, tonight will be the first time such a hypothesis can be tested. The reigning Brownlow medallist will miss his first game for the Cats since crossing to Geelong in the 2015 off season, owing to a suspension for a dangerous tackle (just thought I should repeat that in case you missed it somehow).
Dangerfield is a really important player for Geelong. Gee, I’m full of useful information this morning. He sits at the top of the Cats’ pyramid, meaning every midfielder in the team will have to slide up a spot in the hierarchy: Joel Selwood is now driving the bus, Mitch Duncan is shotgun, and one of Scott Selwood, Sam Menegola or Jordan Murdoch becomes the third man. With that frame of reference it is clear the Cats will be significantly weaker than usual in tight.
While the classification of Dangerfield’s tackle as ‘dangerous’ under the guidelines of the legal system of the league was subject to plenty of debate, the Match Review Panel and tribunal systems as they are currently designed make it really difficult for teams to challenge a ban unless they are extremely confident in overturning it.
As it was, with Dangerfield’s availability for next week’s potential top two-deciding clash with the Tigers at risk, the Cats had little choice.
On the plus side, we get to see whether the hot-take hypothesis of so many across the league has any truth to it.
Nakia Cockatoo is also out of the selected team on account of a reoccurrence of a hamstring injury, along with youngsters Zach Guthrie and Sam Simpson. Simpson is listed at a surely wrong 68 kilograms; if that’s actually the case, good luck, young fellow.
(Image: AAP Image/Julian Smith)
The Swans are themselves missing one of their most important midfielders, with Josh P Kennedy out of the game on account of a tight hamstring. He is one of four changes the Swans have made, with two youngsters – Dan Robinson and Jordan Foote – omitted and Sam Naismith also injured.
In their places come Gary Rohan, Jake Lloyd, Sam Reid and Kurt Tippett. It’s an intriguing move, with the Swans replacing one tall (Naismith) with two (Reid and Tippett) and going in with one less midfielder.
That hints at how the Swans think this one will be played. For much of the game Sydney will have three tall players rolling through the forward half of the ground and, depending on where Lance Franklin plays, they could all be high marking targets.
This smells like a direct response to Geelong’s defensive structures, which are oh-so potent on their home ground. In their four outings at Kardinia Park this season the Cats have a contested mark differential of +4.3, with a lone 16-16 break even against Port Adelaide in Round 10.
Last year the aerial dominance was more profound: a differential of +5.5. Just four teams have a differential of two or more per game this season: Adelaide (+2.1), Carlton (+2.5), Port Adelaide (+4.2) and West Coast (+2.7).
It doesn’t sound like a lot, but contested marks are critically important. They often suck a number of players to a point on the ground and create chaos. Bringing down the mark gives your team first opportunity to make the next move, which these days often involves a handball to an overlapping runner who can kick long.
Geelong excel at creating these opportunities at Kardinia Park and have the players to exploit the advantage, which is why Sydney selecting all four of Franklin, Reid, Sinclair and Tippett is intriguing. Rather than going small and thinking he can engineer a ground ball victory, Sydney coach John Longmire is instead trying to match the Cats in the air.
That comes despite Sydney having a better depth of talent through the middle of the ground when the two teams are stacked up next to each other. The return of Lloyd adds some flexibility to Sydney’s line up through the middle and behind the play. Lloyd and the newly re-signed Zak Jones can switch from in and under to the wing to the half back line with ease.
(Image: AAP Image/David Moir)
Both teams have plenty to play for tonight – more than the usual four points. Geelong can take out one of their most urgent top four threats while giving their chance at a top two finish a huge boost. Sydney can make up a game on a team above them on the ladder and keep the baying hounds below them at bay. It’s a fitting start to an incalculably important weekend of football.
Earlier in the week it appeared markets are more inclined to back Geelong’s near pristine track record on their home deck over the supposed ‘Dangerfield effect’, but after selection news dropped, the Swans moved into lukewarm favouritism.
It has been tough to get a read on the Cats all year. Since the bye Geelong has won four, drawn one, lost two and owned a percentage of 122.6 per cent – in keeping with their full season record.
However, all of that percentage and then some has come from two games: against Brisbane in Round 16 and Carlton the weekend just past. In the other five games Geelong has drawn once and has won a game by two points and another by three points in between losses by 13 and 21. To complicate matters further, just one of those games was at Kardinia Park.
Take anything from that? You’re braver than I am. Still, I think the Kardina Park factor is real and am inclined to trust this over what I can assume is a reaction to the exit of Dangerfield and Sydney’s bold selection gambit.
Cats by six in what I can see emerging as a scrappy slog fest. As a hedge I’ll say that if Sydney are winning the game by a few goals at quarter time, it’ll be a sign that a comfortable win is on the cards.
That’s my Friday night forecast, what’s yours?