Not only are we moving into the last week of the split, it’s the last week of the season, and of the NA LCS in it’s current format.

I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m getting some light nostalgia. I started watching League of Legends in Summer 2013, when Cloud9 first punched their ticket into the LCS, and although it’s pretty likely that we will see most, if not all, of the existing teams transition into the franchise system, it’s hard to know what to expect right now.

There have been some interesting rumors floating around this week, particularly the one that ESPN reported about four European teams submitting bids to join the NA LCS in 2018. Two of those were Fnatic, who have been a core part of the European scene since it began, and G2 esports who have dominated recently.

I remember probably a month ago a Riot source said that while they were planning on a 10-team system, they were open to it being bigger. I would love to see an expanded league – going from eight to ten teams a couple of years ago was a great time – but I don’t think some of the top organisations in Europe leaving for a different region would be the way to do it.

Franchise discussions are all still guesswork though, so let’s go back to the facts. Here are the standings in NA as we go into the final week of play:

1. Team SoloMid (TSM): 12-4 in matches; 26-11 in games
1. Immortals (IMT): 12-4; 24-15
3. CounterLogic Gaming (CLG): 11-5; 25-16
4. Cloud9 (C9): 10-6; 24-18
4. Team Dignitas (DIG): 10-6; 26-19
6. Team EnvyUs (NV): 8-8; 21-22
7. Echo Fox (FOX): 5-11; 16-23
8. Phoenix1 (P1): 4-12; 15-27
8. FlyQuest (FLY): 4-12; 14-26
8. Team Liquid (TL): 4-12; 11-27

Last week, we saw the playoffs spots finalised; with only two games remaining, but three wins separating sixth and seventh, NV have officially made it into playoffs, while FOX, P1, FLY and TL will be working hard to finish in seventh or eighth.

Though the top and bottom have been distinguished, there are still plenty of important games in this final week of play. The top two teams will get a bye through the first round of playoffs, and any playoff team bar NV and C9 could take one of those slots. On the other end, the bottom two teams will lose any playoff points they hold, rendering them unable to participate in the gauntlet for worlds; P1 and FLY will both be doing everything they can to lock in those seventh and eighth place slots.

So in this final week, let’s go through the best and worst outcomes for each team this weekend. I’m going based on all tiebreaker rules; as a reminder, those are that if the match record is the same, the head-to-head record (h2h) will break the tie, and if the h2h is 1-1, the team with more game wins will win the tie. For the three-way tie in eighth, the team with the highest win per cent is given the highest seed, then regular tiebreaker rules apply.

Team SoloMid
Current: first place
Best: first
Worst: third
TSM are back at the top of the standings, and are looking like they will stay there. That said, they could still lose the playoff bye if they are not careful enough.

Any of IMT, CLG or DIG could pass them with the right game outcomes:

IMT only needs to win one more match than TSM, as they have the same match win record and are 1-1 h2h
CLG would need to win both their matches 2-0, including their TSM rematch on Monday, with TSM losing both matches 2-0
DIG hold the h2h 2-0, but they would still need to go 2-0 in matches with TSM going 0-2 in order for the tiebreaker to come into play

#2 and #3 are mutually exclusive, as DIG plays CLG on Saturday, so only one of those teams could pass TSM by the end of the week. Despite the fact that C9 are ahead of DIG in the standings, they are even in the h2h with TSM, and cannot overtake them on win percentage.

Match to watch: el clasico, TSM versus CLG at 8am AEST Monday.

Immortals
Current: second place
Best: first
Worst: third
Viewers have been burned by IMT in playoffs before, but those were both after absolutely dominant splits. Perhaps they need to be second place in order to shine?

They could play swapsies with the same teams as TSM, and have some pretty similar steps to do so:

To pass TSM, they just need to win more matches. Simple!
CLG would need to win both their matches with IMT losing both, as IMT hold the h2h 2-0
DIG would need to win both their matches 2-0, with IMT losing both matches 2-0 to force tiebreaker rules; the teams h2h is 1-1, but if DIG win twice and IMT lose twice, DIG will be ahead in game win percentage

Again, #2 and #3 are mutually exclusive, so Immortals are in a pretty good spot to skip the first round of playoffs and move directly to the semis. C9 are again not in the picture as they have lost the h2h with IMT.

Match to watch: IMT versus NV at 8am Saturday

CounterLogic Gaming
Current: third place
Best: first
Worst: fifth
Even though they’re only one match win from the top of the ladder, CLG do not have an easy road if they want to move up in the standings this weekend, with games against TSM and DIG. They actually have a significant chance of slipping in the standings if they are not careful!

Still, they could sneak in and steal that coveted playoff bye:

To pass TSM, CLG would need to win the rematch against TSM at 8am on Monday, and for TSM to lose at least once more than them, because the game win percentage won’t work in their favour otherwise
To pass IMT, CLG would need to win both matches with IMT winning none, as IMT hold the h2h
For C9 to pass CLG, C9 would need to win both matches with CLG losing both, as CLG holds the h2h tiebreaker
For DIG to pass CLG, DIG would need to win one more match than CLG, preferably including their rematch at 11am Saturday; that would give them the h2h, too, and would not need to go to win percentage

With OmarGod now their full-time jungle, it’ll be a challenge for CLG to move up, but it is possible; they went 3-2 in games last week.

Match to watch: CLG versus TSM, 8am Monday

Cloud9
Current: fourth place
Best: third
Worst: sixth
It hurts to write this and realise there is no way for my favourite team to get a playoff bye, but with any luck they can get a good playoffs run and not need it.

Assuming IMT and TSM stay in the first and second place, any quarter-final outcome is a bit of a tossup – the four teams that would be left in third through sixth can all beat each other:

To pass CLG, C9 will need to win both their matches while CLG drops both, as CLG already hold the h2h match-up 2-0
For DIG to pass C9, DIG will need to win at least one more match than C9, as C9 hold the h2h tiebreaker
For NV to pass C9, NV would need to win both their matches including a rematch on Sunday at 5am while C9 lost both matches; that would give them an even match record, and NV would hold the h2h

C9’s position is a bit precarious, but their other match this weekend is the rematch with FOX, who despite looking better, is not as strong. They are also unlikely going to need to go to win percentage as a tiebreaker.

Match to watch: C9 versus NV, 5am Sunday

Team Dignitas
Current: fifth place
Best: first
Worst: sixth
DIG are in a weird position; although they are below C9 in the standings, their head to head records mean that they could actually come out higher in the standings

Here’s how that could look:

To pass TSM, DIG will need to win both matches while TSM loses both; DIG has the h2h
To pass IMT, DIG will need to win both matches while IMT loses both; the h2h is even, and these wins and losses would lead to DIG having a higher win percentage
To pass CLG, DIG will need to either win both matches while CLG loses both, or to just win one more match than CLG including their rematch at 11am Saturday, as this would leave them with an even record, and DIG holding the h2h
To pass C9, DIG will need to win one more match than C9 over the weekend, as C9 already holds the h2h
For NV to pass DIG, NV would need to go 4-0 in games with DIG going 0-4; the h2h is even, and the only way NV can edge ahead on win percentage is to not drop anything, and for DIG to drop everything

It’s not going to be easy for DIG, and it isn’t even all in their hands, but it’s gotta be good knowing how high they could go.

Match to watch: DIG versus CLG, 11am Saturday

Team EnvyUs
Current: sixth place
Best: fourth
Worst: sixth
NV have come a long way from their relegation-risk days. Although they should absolutely be trying to move out of sixth to avoid playing the third-place team, any team could conceivably beat any team, so it’s less important this year than it has been previously.

Here’s how they can gain a place or two:

To pass C9, NV needs to win both games, including the rematch against C9 at 5am Sunday, and for C9 to lose both games; in this case, NV will hold the h2h
To pass DIG, NV would need to win all their games, with DIG losing all games; it will come down to win percentage, and a 4-0 week (against an 0-4 week) is the only way NV can edge out over DIG

It’s a tall order for either outcome, and relies just as much on their opponents failing than on NV succeeding. Still, have you seen the NA LCS recently? Stranger things have happened.

Match to watch: NV versus C9, 5am Sunday

Echo Fox
Current: seventh place
Best: seventh
Worst: ninth
Back in week one, it was all aboard the FOX hype train, but since that week where they didn’t drop a single game, they’ve failed to have a single 2-0 week. It must be tough, but they can still avoid the bottom of the table, and play spoiler to the worlds hopes of P1 and FLY.

Despite only being one match win up on the bottom three teams and having the even h2h with FLY and P1, FOX has a good enough game win percentage that for any lower team teams to overtake them, the lower team would both have to win both games, and FOX would need to lose both. Thankfully for FOX, as FLY and TL play each other this weekend, only one of them can go 2-0.

Although not a bad position to be in, FOX is playing against C9 and and IMT this weekend, so it will probably work out that more is riding on their opponent’s games than on their own.

Match to watch: FLY versus TL, 8am Sunday

Phoenix1
Current: eighth place
Best: seventh
Worst: 10th
It was always going to be hard for this team to make it to playoffs, but after a mediocre week 8, P1 are now fighting to stay out of the bottom to retain their championship points.

Here’s how P1 can save themselves, and how their leaguemates can take them down:

To pass FOX, P1 need to win both matches, and for FOX to lose both
For FLY to pass P1, FLY are best off winning at least as many games as P1, and beating them in the rematch at 8am Monday so that FLY will hold the h2h (they can also lose that game and both teams go 1-1; it will then be down to game win %, which FLY currently holds by some 6%)
For TL to pass P1, TL just needs to win the same number of matches as P1; TL hold the h2h here, so going even will bump them up the standings

That’s gotta be a scary position for P1 to be in. They are already sitting on the edge – their opponents are in a dangerous spot to push them off.

Match to watch: P1 versus FLY, 8am Monday

FlyQuest
Current: ninth place
Best: seventh
Worst: 10th
Now, by my maths, FLY are actually just ahead of P1, as FLY won their only match-up to date way back in week 2. Regardless, the rematch will be a deciding factor between the two teams.

Here’s how FLY can still go to worlds, or maybe just crash and burn.

To pass FOX, FLY need to win both matches, and for FOX to lose both
To pass P1, FLY have multiple options, but the easiest is going to be to win the rematch on Monday; they will then go at least even in match wins, and FLY will hold the h2h
For TL to pass FLY, TL will need to win both their matches, including the rematch against FLY at 8am Sunday

FLY are unlikely to move into seventh, but unlike most other teams, their fate is in their own hands; they just gotta win that match on Monday. Can you guess which of their matches I’m going to recommend?

Match to watch: FLY versus P1, 8am Monday

Team Liquid
Current: 10th place
Best: seventh
Worst:10th
I mean, at least it can’t get worse for them?

Here’s how they could move up:

To pass FOX, TL need to win both matches, and for FOX to lose both, as FOX holds the h2h
To pass P1, TL just need to win as many matches as P1 does; if they finish with the same match record, TL will come out on top as they hold the h2h
To pass FLY, TL will need to win both matches, which includes a rematch against FLY at 8am Sunday

It is really unlikely that TL will move out of the bottom two spots, but they do have a shot. Their best bet is to at least drag P1 down with them.

Match to watch: TL versus FLY, 8am Sunday

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What a weekend this will be! There’s still a lot on the line here for so many teams, and with the way this split has gone there are definitely some chances for teams to play spoiler to one another.

Which game is the most important for you and your team this weekend?