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With three rounds remaining before the finals get underway, there is absolutely no doubting as to who the premiership favourites are.
Stung by their draw against Collingwood last week, which came after they had trailed by 51 points early in the third quarter, the Adelaide Crows unleashed on cross-town rivals Port Adelaide last night to score a Showdown-record 84-point win to all but lock up their first top two finish since 2012.
What had shaped as the biggest Showdown in recent history became a fizzer as the Crows kicked 13 goals to six after half-time to flex their premiership muscle, giving their large legion of fans optimism that they can add to the pair of premierships they won back in 1997 and 1998.
Only a consolation goal from Port’s Charlie Dixon on the final siren prevented the Crows from achieving an even bigger victory, however by that point they had already eclipsed the previous biggest winning margin in a Showdown.
That was when they won by 83 points in what was dubbed the ‘Ultimate Showdown’ during the 2005 finals series.
The Crows have now won the past five Showdowns, something they had never achieved before, and have reclaimed the lead in the head-to-head (they now lead 22-21) for the first time since 2000.
The win also took them to a 14-1-4 record for the season with matches against Essendon, the Sydney Swans and West Coast Eagles still to come in the final three rounds.
It is possible that the Crows could lock up top spot with two rounds still to play, with the GWS Giants and Richmond both six points behind the Crows in equal second place on the ladder and facing tricky away matches against the Western Bulldogs and Geelong Cats respectively.
The result of both matches will be known by the time the Crows step out onto Etihad Stadium to face the Bombers this Saturday night.
If both the Giants and Tigers drop their Round 21 matches, then the equation will be simple for the Crows: win and they will secure just their second minor premiership and first since 2005.
It would be the earliest any side has secured the minor premiership since the Geelong Cats did so with three games still to play after Round 19 in 2007.
But while the Crows did thrash the Bombers by 65 points back in Round 4, facing them at Etihad Stadium will be a different prospect altogether and they will be keen to claim another major scalp before September.
The Bombers have proven their worth against the best sides this year, defeating the Geelong Cats and Port Adelaide quite convincingly at home and giving Richmond and the GWS Giants a run for their money, losing by 15 and 16 points respectively.
They also should’ve beaten the Sydney Swans in Round 14 but coughed up a 19-point lead with five minutes to go to lose by a solitary point, while they also faded late against the Western Bulldogs in round 19.
Even if the Crows do win their final three matches, they still won’t be able to better the 17 wins they racked up in both the 2005 and 2012 home-and-away seasons.
However, assuming they don’t lose another match before the finals get underway, their four losses so far will be the fewest in a regular season.
While it is looking increasingly likely that the Crows will be the team that mounts the premiership dais in 55 days’ time, questions will still continue to be asked as to whether they can actually perform in September.
They finished last season in disastrous fashion when they lost their final round clash against the West Coast Eagles at home, when a win would’ve seen them finish in the top two with a double chance.
After winning their elimination final clash against North Melbourne by 62 points, they then departed in meek fashion when they lost to the Sydney Swans by 36 points in the semi-final at the SCG.
Interestingly, the Crows face rematches against both the Swans and Eagles in the run to September, with both matches shaping as potentially tricky match-ups for the club for a variety of reasons.
Firstly, in addition to the Swans having ended the Crows’ premiership hopes last September, they have emerged as the form side of the competition since Round 6, winning more games than any other side in this period with their only two losses – both coming against Hawthorn, both by six points.
The Swans have also won five of their last six against the Crows, with the only blot being in Round 4 last year when Eddie Betts kicked a goal in the final 30 seconds to give the Crows a 10-point win.
Don Pyke’s men will also be wary of a West Coast side that is still fighting to keep its finals hopes alive, as well as the fact that it could be the final ever match played at Subiaco Oval before matches are played at the new Perth Stadium from the 2018 season onwards.
They’ll also have last year’s aforementioned final round loss at the top of their minds when they head west for the only time this season, though the Crows should have the minor premiership officially in their keeping by then.
But another loss to the Eagles, who may need to win that match to qualify for the finals, could cast some doubt to the club’s title aspirations, their fans having endured so much frustration over their side’s ongoing inability to perform under the heat of finals football.
In 2012, under first-year coach Brenton Sanderson, the club exceeded all before them to reach a preliminary final, where it lost to Hawthorn by just five points.
However, the club would crumble under the weight of pre-season expectations and miss the finals in the following two years, costing Sanderson his job as the club set out to eliminate mediocrity.
The years 2005 and 2006 are also those that come to mind.
In 2005, under Neil Craig, the Crows rose from 12th to claim the minor premiership by beating the Eagles at Subiaco Oval in the final round, but would then drop their qualifying final match against St Kilda by eight points.
While they would recover to thrash Port Adelaide by a then-record 83-points (eclipsed of course by last night’s 84-point romp in Showdown XLIII) in the semi-final, the Eagles would then deny them in the preliminary final.
Twelve months later, the Crows fared somewhat better, winning its qualifying final against Fremantle to progress directly to a home preliminary final, but again it was the Eagles that would stop them a game short of the decider.
(AAP Image/Ben Macmahon)
After Nathan Bock had kicked a goal to draw the Crows to within four points in the dying seconds, ex-Crow Tyson Stenglein (then playing for the Eagles) would receive a free kick following an infringement in the centre clearance.
Any chance the Crows had of reaching the Grand Final died with it.
To this day, it ranks as one of the most devastating losses in the club’s history, given it had dominated for the majority of the match and had a strong home crowd behind them as it sought to make the most of the period during which their premiership window was wide open.
It will now remain to be seen whether the present-day Crows can not only make the most of their opportunities this year, but also learn from the lessons of past finals failures, of which some continue to haunt the club to this day.
A premiership win will go down as the ultimate reward for the club’s loyal fans who have stuck with them throughout the toughest of times, not just through the well-documented finals failures but also the period following the shocking death of Phil Walsh midway through the 2015 season.
Walsh had mapped out a long-term plan to establish sustained success at the club, and it seems the players are carrying his legacy forward as they seek to “get the job done” by claiming the club’s third flag.
Because that’s what he would have wanted.
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