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2017 AFL season: Round 21 preview

Roar Guru
8th August, 2017
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Jake Stringer for the Bulldogs. (AAP Image/Julian Smith)
Roar Guru
8th August, 2017
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Just three rounds remain before the finals get underway, and we have another blockbuster round of matches lined up with all but two matches involving teams still in finals contention.

The Great Western rivalry continues on Friday night with the Western Bulldogs hosting the GWS Giants, while Richmond will fancy its chances of breaking a long winning drought against a depleted Geelong Cats side.

Depending on how things fare, the Adelaide Crows could all but secure the minor premiership with two matches to play when it faces Essendon at Etihad Stadium, while cross-town rivals Port Adelaide will be out to bounce back from its Showdown humiliation when it hosts Collingwood on Sunday.

Here is your full guide to Round 21.

Western Bulldogs versus GWS Giants
After being soundly beaten by the Adelaide Crows at the Oval in Round 16, many believed that there was definite talk of a premiership hangover at the Whitten Oval.

Four wins later, the Western Bulldogs’ premiership defence remains alive and on Friday night will look to make it five straight wins when they host a GWS Giants side that will be missing suspended ruckman Shane Mumford.

Last Saturday night they overcame a resilient Brisbane Lions side to win by 14 points at the Gabba, with the win marshaled by Marcus Bontempelli and his heroic final quarter efforts.

However, they know that they cannot afford to start slowly against the Giants, who recorded the highest scoring first quarter in their history when they slammed home eight straight goals against the Dees in Canberra.

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Astonishingly, the Giants were missing the injured forward pairing of Jeremy Cameron and Jonathon Patton, while Toby Greene was serving the second week of his second two-match suspension for striking in Round 18.

Greene will return this Friday night but Leon Cameron’s men will be without Mumford who took a one-match ban after his high hit on opposite number Max Gawn.

This will see Dawson Simpson come into the side for just his second match for the Giants, having bided his time in the reserves in the two years he’s been at Spotless Stadium.

The match between the Giants and Bulldogs in Canberra earlier this year went down to the wire, as did last year’s preliminary final, and so the Bulldogs will be out to avenge the Round 6 result in which they lost by two points.

Given the personnel that are missing for the Giants, I can see the Dogs winning this one – but only by just.

Prediction: Western Bulldogs by six points.

Jake Stringer Western Bulldogs AFL 2017 tall

(AAP Image/Julian Smith)

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Sydney Swans versus Fremantle
The first match on Saturday afternoon sees Fremantle make its second trip to Sydney in three weeks to face a red-hot Sydney Swans side at the SCG.

The Dockers may be out of finals contention but appear to be playing out the season well, as evidenced when it defeated the Gold Coast Suns by 23 points at home last week, with Luke Ryan receiving the club’s first Rising Star nomination a few weeks after being suspended for breaching team protocol.

That followed a gutsy 12-point loss to the GWS Giants at Spotless Stadium in Round 19.

However, facing the Swans at the SCG remains one of football’s toughest assignments, and it’s one the Dockers will be looking to relish in what will be their first visit to the historic venue since 2014.

The Swans have emerged as the form team of the past three months, winning 11 of their last 13 matches to rocket into the top eight after dropping their first six matches of the season.

They couldn’t have played more impressively this season than it did against the Geelong Cats at Simonds Stadium last Friday night, where they kicked seven goals in the opening quarter en route to a 46-point win.

Granted, the Cats were missing their midfield lynchpin in Patrick Dangerfield to suspension, but the Swans were also without their captain in Josh Kennedy due to a hamstring injury.

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The Swans’ finals warm-up continues with its match against the Dockers, after which is followed by a Friday night blockbuster against minor premiers-in-waiting the Adelaide Crows at the Oval next week.

Many are talking up that match as being potentially the grand final preview.

But first things’ first, the Swans need to take care of the Dockers at home, and it’ll be hard seeing them toppled on their home turf.

Prediction: Sydney Swans by 40 points.

Geelong Cats versus Richmond
A full house is guaranteed when Richmond makes the trip down the highway to Simonds Stadium for the first time since 2012.

Given the Tigers are one of the highest-drawing clubs in the AFL, in the end the league will be left to regret scheduling them to play the Geelong Cats at Kardinia Park, which holds a capacity of 34,000.

This scheduling anomaly came about as a result of the Tigers’ dismal 2016 season, which resulted in a commercially tough draw that included no Friday night matches and fewer home games against the bigger clubs.

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Damien Hardwick’s men will have it tough if they are to break through for a win against the Cats – having not beaten them anywhere since 2006 and suffering devastating defeats against them over the years.

That’s despite the fact the Cats will be without captain Joel Selwood, who is out until at least the first round of the finals with an ankle injury, as well as suspended pair Tom Hawkins and Mitch Duncan.

However, reigning Brownlow Medallist Patrick Dangerfield returns from suspension in time for what should be a fascinating match-up against the man tipped to take out this year’s Charlie, Dustin Martin.

The 27-year-old’s presence was sorely missed in the Cats’ disappointing 46-point loss to the Sydney Swans at home last Friday night, and many will be wondering what could’ve been had he not been so careless in his tackle on Matthew Kreuzer in Round 19.

But while the saying goes, “there is no I in team”, Chris Scott’s men should bounce back with a top-two spot at stake for the winner.

Prediction: Geelong Cats by 16 points.

Brisbane Lions versus Gold Coast Suns
The 14th edition of the QClash looms as yet another large one, for reasons known only to the hierarchies of both clubs.

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Despite sitting in last place on the ladder with just four wins, the Brisbane Lions have shown more fight on the field than they have in previous years, and could have beaten the Western Bulldogs at home last week only to tire out in the final quarter.

They will have reason to believe that it can complete a clean-sweep of their M1 neighbours, the Gold Coast Suns, for the first time since 2013.

The Suns have this week been thrown into crisis following the sacking of coach Rodney Eade, the club having failed to live up to expectations when he was appointed coach at the end of the 2014 season.

Josh Schache Brisbane Lions AFL 2016 tall

(AAP Image/Glenn Hunt)

Former Essendon premiership defender Dean Solomon has taken the reins in a caretaker capacity, as the club begins the search for its third full-time coach.

Even in the face of a horrific injury toll, the side has been competitive in recent weeks, taking it right up to Richmond and Fremantle in the past fortnight.

However, a deeply negative win-loss ratio proved to be the tipping point for Eade and the veteran mentor has decided not to coach out the season, opting to leave his post immediately.

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Now it remains – how will the Suns fare in the final three rounds of the season?

Prediction: Brisbane Lions by 12 points.

Essendon versus Adelaide Crows
Depending on how the GWS Giants and Richmond fare earlier in the round, Saturday night could see the Adelaide Crows secure the minor premiership when it faces Essendon at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night.

The Crows have been the team to beat by a country’s mile in 2017, spending the entire season in the top two and showing why it can add to the pair of flags they claimed in 1997 and 1998.

Last week we witnessed just about the most complete performance by the club this year as they dominated from start to finish against an abysmal Port Adelaide side in the 43rd Showdown.

If they hadn’t been so careless to concede the final goal of the game, their percentage would be slightly better than the 139.9 per cent that it is now.

Thus, the Bombers will have their work cut out if they are to bring down the scoring machine that is the Crows.

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On top of losing Orazio Fantasia to a potentially season-ending hamstring injury in the win over Carlton, they have also lost Zach Merrett to a one-week suspension for his strike on the Blues’ Lachie Plowman.

Their recent record against the Crows also makes for ugly reading, losing their last three meetings by an average of 86.3 points. The last two, however, came at the Oval where the average losing margin is 73.5 points.

While the Bombers will relish the chance to test themselves against the clear yardstick of the competition, a win for the Crows will see them all but lock up top spot with two games of the minor rounds still to play.

That’s provided the GWS Giants and Richmond both lose their ties against the Western Bulldogs and Geelong Cats earlier in the round.

Prediction: Adelaide Crows by 38 points.

West Coast Eagles versus Carlton
Another disappointing loss on the road last week has left the West Coast Eagles’ finals hopes hanging in the balance.

Their inability to win in Melbourne was again exposed when they lost to St Kilda by eight points at Etihad Stadium last weekend, and another loss this weekend, although unlikely given it plays 17th-placed Carlton, could see them consigned to the September scrapheap.

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The match against the Blues will be historic for the fact that it is likely to be the final ever match played under lights at Subiaco Oval, before the Eagles and Dockers move to the new Perth Stadium next year.

That, and the looming retirements of Matt Priddis and Sam Mitchell, should give Adam Simpson’s men some incentive to finish the season strongly against a Carlton side that is finishing it poorly.

Jack Darling West Coast Eagles AFL tall 2017

(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)

The Blues have dropped their last seven games since defeating the Gold Coast Suns in Round 13, but were nowhere close to disgraced against Essendon last week, losing only in the final minutes of the game when Levi Casboult missed a set shot which would’ve put them in front.

Their second trip to Perth this season for their only meeting against the Eagles will test them, but as proven in Round 5 last year when it upset Fremantle by less than a goal, they’ll be up for it.

Still, the Eagles should prove too strong at home.

Prediction: West Coast Eagles by 32 points.

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Melbourne versus St Kilda
The first match on Sunday looms as a virtual elimination final for Melbourne and St Kilda, two sides that entered the new season with high hopes of reaching the finals.

The Dees appeared to be well on track to break its decade-long absence from September, but have lost four of their last six matches to drop to tenth on the ladder, just ahead of the 11th-placed Saints.

After starting strongly against the GWS Giants, kicking the game’s first three goals, the Dees capitulated in embarrassing fashion to go down by 35 points, leaving further questions to be asked of their finals credentials.

This has left them in the position where they simply must win every one of their final three matches if they are to force their way back into the eight.

The major positive for the club is that they are all at the MCG, and their opponents this Sunday, St Kilda, will be playing on the ground for the first time in the season.

The Saints broke a three-game losing streak to defeat the West Coast Eagles by eight points at Etihad Stadium last Sunday, with Jack Billings kicking the winning goal with 30 seconds remaining to keep their finals chances alive.

This has given them the momentum heading to the home of football, where they have won their last four games, including all three last year.

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While they had their decade-long domination of the Dees ended by way of a 30-point loss in Round 1, they appear the stronger team on paper this time around and should take the points in this one.

Prediction: St Kilda by 10 points.

Hawthorn versus North Melbourne
When the fixture for the 2017 season was released last October, one match had the potential to cause some controversy on the commercial front, and that was the match between Hawthorn and North Melbourne in Launceston.

Because both the Hawks and Kangaroos are contracted to play some home games in Launceston and Hobart respectively, this Sunday’s match has been dubbed the “Tasmanian Derby”.

It will, however, be just the second time that this has occurred since the Roos began their venture into the Apple Isle in 2012, the first coming that year when the Hawks dished out a 115-point thrashing with Buddy Franklin kicking 13 goals, four more than the entire North Melbourne side.

The Kangaroos are yet to welcome the Hawks to Blundstone Arena, and that does not look like occurring anytime soon despite the lure of a large crowd and tens of thousands of dollars that the Roos would stand to earn from it.

Onto on-field matters now, and the match will mark the final time Hawks champion Luke Hodge plays in Launceston, let alone interstate, with the two-time Norm Smith Medallist set to retire at the end of the season.

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He returns from a one-match suspension which saw him miss the 29-point loss to Richmond at the MCG, meaning one player will have to make way for his inclusion back into the side.

The Roos are still locked in a battle to avoid the wooden spoon and a win against the Hawks would see them move a rung away from what would be their first last-place finish since 1972.

Chances are they may have to do it without forward Ben Brown, after he was badly concussed in the huge loss to Collingwood last Saturday night.

With or without him, the Roos stand no chance here.

Prediction: Hawthorn by 24 points.

Tom Mitchell Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2017

(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

Port Adelaide versus Collingwood
They taunted their rivals with their now-infamous banner prior to the first bounce in last week’s clash against the Crows, but in the end Port Adelaide were left embarrassed by the worst losing margin in Showdown history.

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Many fans were left questioning the Power’s on-field effort after the players ran through a banner aimed at Crows supporters, some branding it as “disrespectful” and “distasteful” to name a few adjectives.

It further exposed them as “flat track bullies” – whereas they are brilliant against the sides well below them on the ladder, the same can’t be said when they face higher-ranked opposition.

This weekend’s clash against Collingwood will present Ken Hinkley’s men a good chance to bounce back from the week from hell, though it must be said that the Pies are coming off a huge win over North Melbourne and also should have beaten the Crows considerably in Round 19.

Nathan Buckley’s men may be out of finals contention but are finishing the season strongly, winning three of their last four matches and having a percentage of just over 100 per cent.

For all the talk of their former captain being under pressure to retain his job, it has emerged that he could stay on after all, given the Pies’ spike in form over the past month.

However, there is no doubting that they will be facing a Port Adelaide side that will be clearly fired up after their humiliating Showdown defeat, which has raised questions as to how they will fare in September.

Additionally, the Pies have yet to score a victory at the Oval, and while they will fancy their chances, I can’t see the Power stringing together two bad performances in a row.

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Prediction: Port Adelaide by 20 points.

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