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The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 22

Expert
16th August, 2017
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Adelaide isn't cruising into the finals. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Media/Getty Images)
Expert
16th August, 2017
39
5697 Reads

Can you believe finals is only a few weeks away? There’s two rounds of footy left and so many crucial matches left to be played.

Adelaide against Sydney on Friday night is one of them. While Adelaide are assured of a top-two finish either way, a win here could push Sydney into the top four.

That’s what decides the tip for me – the result in this one is so much more valuable to Sydney than it is Adelaide, who can lock up the minor premiership against West Coast next week instead.

The Bulldogs need a win over Port Adelaide to stay in the finals hunt, Port need it to keep their hopes of top four alive (or sure up their home elimination final).

This one’s pretty hard to split in my opinion, I reckon Port Adelaide have played better and more consistent footy this year so tipping them.

Geelong didn’t show any of the dip we expected from their losing Joel Selwood and Tom Hawkins against Richmond, but I reckon it might pop up this week against Collingwood, who have a good recent record of upsetting the Cats.

After that, there’s relatively clear favourites in each of the remaining games of the week: GWS over West Coast, Essendon over Gold Coast, Hawthorn over Carlton, Melbourne over Brisbane, St Kilda over North Melbourne, and Richmond over Fremantle.

There’s a little upset potential around there, if I had to pick one it’d be the Blues to throw all our calculations about the wooden spoon into disarray with a surprise win over the Hawks – but I’m tipping the favourites across the board.

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As for a Lock of the Week, Melbourne know how important an easy win over Brisbane is to their season and won’t drop the ball on that one. Probably.

Lock of the week from the Simpsons

Maddy Friend
Sydney, Bulldogs, Geelong, GWS, Essendon, Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda, Richmond

Despite Adelaide’s home-ground advantage, I’m tipping Sydney to continue its good form on Friday night.

Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide is a crunch game for both teams. The Bulldogs have been playing better footy recently, so I’m tipping them in a close game.

Collingwood has an excellent record against Geelong, but the Cats are playing too well at the moment.

The Giants are in good form and should account for the Eagles at home.

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Gold Coast showed some fighting spirit last week, but with Essendon looking to assure itself of a place in the finals, I’m backing the Bombers to win easily.

Carlton’s young team looks like it is tiring towards the end of the season, so I expect the Hawks to win comfortably.

Melbourne against Brisbane should be a comfortable win for the Dees. Saints should also win on Sunday, but North aren’t without a chance. Saints in a close one.

The last game of the round largely depends which Fremantle turns up, but I expect Richmond to get the job done with a top two spot up for grabs.

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Cameron Rose
Sydney, Bulldogs, Collingwood, GWS, Essendon, Hawthorn, Melbourne, St Kilda, Richmond

What a Friday night clash to kick off the round. No-one at Sydney fears Adelaide, at home or away, and the Swans should win this to keep pouring the pressure on Richmond for that top four spot.

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The Dogs can take care of Port to keep their finals hopes alive, and also probably knock the Power out of the top four race. Geelong might hit a flat spot after getting up for last weeks clash with the Tigers, and Collingwood is just the right team to take advantage of it. GWS, Essendon and Hawthorn look fairly straightforward to round out the Saturday matches.

On Sunday, Melbourne will beat Brisbane and St Kilda should do the same to North. Richmond travels to Freo still haunted by their MCG loss to the Dockers earlier this year. If the Swans have taken down the Crows, the Tiges will need to win to get back into the top four. That mental pressure may well bring about their undoing, but safer to just tip Richmond at this stage.

Round 22 Josh Elliott Maddy Friend Tim Lane Cam Rose The Crowd
ADE vs SYD SYD SYD SYD SYD ADE
WB vs PA PA WB WB WB WB
COL vs GEE COL GEE COL COL GEE
GWS vs WCE GWS GWS GWS GWS GWS
GCS vs ESS ESS ESS ESS ESS ESS
CAR vs HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW HAW
MEL vs BRI MEL MEL MEL MEL MEL
STK vs NM STK STK STK STK STK
FRE vs RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC RIC
Last week 8 8 6 7 8
Total 104 104 112 114 111
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