Expert
The GWS Giants have recorded a crucial win over the West Coast Eagles, likely ending the visitors’ finals hopes in the process.
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Final score
GWS Giants 12.9.81
West Coast Eagles 9.6.60
The GWS Giants will host the West Coast Eagles in Sydney’s west on Saturday, with both teams needing to win, but for different reasons. Join The Roar for live scores and a blog starting from 4:35pm AEST.
GWS are second on the ladder. Here’s how the scenarios play out for them:
If they lose both of their remaining matches, and at least two of three things happen – Richmond win at least one more match (and catch them on percentage, or win both matches), Sydney win both their remaining matches, Port Adelaide win both their remaining matches – they’ll fall out of the top four.
If they win at least one of their remaining matches, they’re guaranteed a top-four finish. If that match is the one against Geelong next week, then they finish top two unless Richmond win both of their remaining matches and catch them on percentage.
If they win both of their remaining matches, they’re guaranteed a top two finish, and can finish on top but only if Adelaide lose both of their last two matches.
So in some ways it’s a surprisingly low leverage game for them – beating Geelong next week is the crucial result, if they do that then this one probably doesn’t effect where they finish.
West Coast are eighth, and have Adelaide next week. Here’s what their scenarios look like.
If they lose both of their remaining matches, they’ll be praying for the Bulldogs and Essendon to have horrific turns of form as they can’t afford either of them winning again this year. Given Essendon have a light run home, that’s not going to happen – they surely miss finals.
Win one of the two matches, well, they’re a chance, but they still need Essendon to drop a match to either Gold Coast or Fremantle, and need the Bulldogs to lose one of their next two.
Win both of the two matches, and they will certainly play finals – the Bulldogs won’t catch them on percentage, and the Bombers can’t catch them on wins.
Prediction
Someone is going to have their season take a hit, and every telling factor suggests it’s going to be West Coast, perhaps by quite a margin.
GWS Giants by 36.
Join The Roar for live scores and a blog starting from 4:35pm AEST.