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50 years left to live: Rugby league's inconvenient truth

20th August, 2017
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Is Australia the shoo-in we're all expecting? (Image: NRL)
Expert
20th August, 2017
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Rugby league in Australia is dying. Interest in the code is waning, participation is dropping, and the on-field product has become dull and predictable. At its current rate, the game has only 50 years left to live.

I was offered a schooner of this doomsday Kool-Aid last week while chatting with a mate who recently read Jared Diamond’s book Collapse – How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. In the book, Diamond seeks to understand the factors leading to the collapse of some of the world’s great civilisations.

In almost all cases, the root cause was overpopulation relative to the capacity of the environment. Put another way, once a society had grown to a point where its available resources could no longer sustain its people, that society would collapse.

While I’m not 100 per cent on board with this theory as a predictor of societal collapse, it did get me thinking about whether or not rugby league might have reached its peak. Has the game tipped past that dangerous point of inflection where its capacity to grow is outstripping the available resources? Is the game already dying?

Consider the following: there has been no growth in average crowd numbers (approx 15,000) over the last 15 years, year-on-year television ratings for rugby league have declined from this time in 2016 and the rate of junior participation in the game is going backwards.

Unhappy Gold Coast Titans fans

Unhappy Gold Coast Titans fans. (AAP Image/Dan Peled)

Worse still, rugby league is almost completely reliant on revenue generated from broadcasters. In a rapidly evolving media market where fewer and fewer customers source content from traditional mediums (pay and free-to-air television), putting all your Steedens in one basket would seem like a particularly dangerous strategy.

This might all sound more depressing than a Dido concert, but the news isn’t all bad. Diamond also described the major factor that differentiated collapsed societies from those which survived: long-term planning.

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And while I hate to agree with Paul Kent, he’s bang on the money when he says that the game of rugby league needs a plan if it hopes to survive. Those at NRL HQ need to decide what they want to game to look like, and then to come up with a long-term plan for how to get there.

Here are a few key issues that should form the basis of rugby league’s survival guide.

Game day experience
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that crowd numbers are dropping as the quality and quantity of the television coverage increases. With a dedicated NRL channel showing every game live and in HD, your couch has never looked so good.

So it’s no real surprise that most people don’t bother going to the effort and expense of attending a game when you can get the same experience by staying at home.

So what can the NRL do to change this? First, they need to fix the schedule. If they are serious about increasing crowd numbers, they need to schedule more games at times when people can actually attend them.

That means Thursday night football and the 6pm Friday night game should be replaced more family-friendly fixtures, such as Saturday afternoon games.

Another scheduling opportunity the NRL needs to take advantage of is maximising opportunities during public and school holidays. Scheduling double-headers and rivalry games during these periods would see a spike in crowd numbers, as more people are free to attend.

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Secondly, the NRL needs to offer people at the game something that they can’t get by watching at home. One example is to allow kids back onto the playing surface once the game has finished, and enable them to interact with the players.

Imagine a seven-year-old Cowboys fan getting underneath a few towering bombs from Johnathan Thurston, or a young South Sydney supporter catching passes from Greg Inglis. Those are the sorts of experiences that will have kids begging parents to take them to the footy every weekend.

Another possible idea would be to allow fans to meet and mingle with former players during the game. Clubs could employ local legends to attend home games, and reticulate around the stands during the match.

Imagine taking your seat at Lottoland and all of a sudden Cliffy Lyons sits down next to you for a beer. You can’t get that sort of experience sitting on your coach at home.

Johnathan Thurston celebrates after winning the NRL Grand Final

(AAP Image/Dean Lewins)

Junior participation
Continued growth in junior participation is crucial for the long-term sustainability of rugby league. Not only are these kids the next generation of NRL superstars, but more importantly, they’re also the next generation of fans.

They’ll buy jerseys, go to games and watch rugby league on TV. They’ll keep the game relevant and they’re essential to its survival.

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But the problem with rugby league at the junior level is that teams are based on age, not weight. This means kids as young as eight are faced with the daunting prospect of playing against opponents that are up to 20kg heavier than they are. Instituting a weight-based grading system would be the first step towards encouraging kids of all shapes and sizes to play junior rugby league.

Another measure I would introduce is to stop keeping score, at least in younger age groups. The constant focus on winning, particularly among parents and coaches, can create a very unhealthy environment for impressionable kids.

And once kids stop having fun, they start to resent the game rather than enjoy it. Before you know it, you’ve got 13 little Bernard Tomics running around out there.

And finally, we should abolish registration fees. Make it free for our kids to play the greatest game of all. I understand that there are significant costs associated with running a junior program, but these costs should be picked up by the NRL, not by struggling local clubs and families.

Diversified media strategy
The NRL cannot continue to rely on signing billion dollar broadcast rights deals to fund the game of rugby league. It’s just not sustainable. What happens if TV ratings continue to drop? What would we do if Rupert Murdoch suddenly decides that he’d rather spend his billions on AFL? How would the game possibly pay its bills without its primary source of income? It wouldn’t, which is why the game needs to diversify.

To the NRL’s credit, they’ve already identified this as a major concern and have allocated large sums of money for the development of a digital media strategy. The only problem is that they have no idea where to start.

Todd Greenberg and his cronies should look to the NFL for inspiration. Despite already dominating the traditional media market, the NFL recently piloted the live streaming of a game exclusively via Yahoo. And while the results of the experiment were lukewarm at best, they gained valuable insights moving forward.

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So instead of focusing all their attention on pay TV, the NRL needs to start approaching alternative carriers. Why not have a chat to Netflix about becoming involved in live sport? Or speak to Google and Amazon about what options they might be able to provide?

Maybe Apple could supply an option to iPhone and iPad users? Or even Sony via their gaming consoles?

At worst, exploring other options may drive up the price of the next broadcast rights deal between the NRL and Foxtel. At best, the game may actually discover other ways to engage with fans through digital media and develop an alternative stream of revenue at the same time.

Greater media access
In the United States, the media is provided unprecedented access to all major sporting codes. They watch teams practice, are allowed into the locker rooms straight after the games, and get the opportunity to interview coaches and superstar players on an almost daily basis.

Best of all, the players give honest, candid answers when asked a question. They’re not afraid to show personality or individuality, and their clubs don’t regulate their responses. The players understand that each time they step in front of the camera is an opportunity for them to enhance their own personal brand. They get it.

Rugby league players? Not so much. Instead of honest answers, they respond in controlled and carefully contrived clichés. Instead of personality and individuality, they all sound the same.

Cameron Smith, RLWC Launch event.

(Photo: 2017 Rugby League World Cup, Scott Davis)

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They see journalists as the enemy, and have no grasp of the concept that increasing their media exposure will actually help them land those coveted third party agreements. Talking to the media will make them money.

If rugby league players truly want to become partners in the game – if they want to receive a share of the game’s revenue and have their say in the way the game is governed – then there needs to be a dramatic shift in their attitude towards the media.

They need to start doing their part to promote the game.

Outlook for the future
If rugby league continues to deplete the available resources without finding a new source of revenue, then it might go the way of the Mayans. But the game isn’t dead and buried just yet. With some careful planning and forward thinking, there’s no reason it can’t survive into the future.

5th Tackle Option
Here are five quick thoughts on the action from Round 24.

1. The Titans performance on Thursday evening was a lot like John Olive’s elbow dislocation – gruesome and painful to watch.

2. Of all the clubs certain to miss the top eight this season, South Sydney are showing the most promise for 2018. Despite missing their captain and highest-paid player for the entire season, the Bunnies have actually played some pretty good footy.

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They’ve remained competitive in the majority of their games and unearthed a few potential star players in the process. They will return to the finals in 2018.

3. Sometimes I’m thankful that Mal Meninga’s political career lasted under one minute. His idea of sacking Neil Henry and making Jarryd Hayne captain of the Gold Coast Titans isn’t the sort of thinking you want coming out of men in a position of power. Then again, he said it on Queenslanders Only, so nobody would have been watching anyway.

4. Much like the third umpire in cricket, the video referee was brought into rugby league to help rectify the clanger. That decision that is so obviously wrong, that to not overturn it would be to perform a disservice to the game. So then why was the James Tedesco forward pass allowed to stand?

I understand that the video referee cannot rule on such matters, but that pass from Tedesco was a borderline penalty for intentionally propelling the ball forward. Imagine if that had occurred during the grand final, and the Tigers had won the comp based on an obvious illegality?

5. Even is Manly go on to miss the finals, which is looking increasingly likely, this season should be viewed as a success. The Sea Eagles have outperformed even the most optimistic preseason prognosticator, and they’ve done so with more than a million dollars sitting on the sideline.

The fact that the Sea Eagles are even competing for a spot in the finals is a testament to the talents of recruitment guru Bob Fulton and his ability to find treasure in other people’s trash (see Uate, Akuila). It’s a shame that Bozo was never able to bring his Midas touch with him into NSW camp.

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