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There’s just one week left of the home-and-away season, and in Round 23 every single game will have some part to play in shaping the finals series.
Eight of this week’s nine games involve at least one team still in the race for a finals spot, and the other one is a good old-fashioned spoon-off.
Below, team by team, is the best and worst case scenarios for each team in finals contention, plus a quick breakdown of which results will give the spoon to who in Brisbane versus North.
1. Adelaide Crows
Fixture: versus West Coast Eagles at Domain Stadium, 4:40pm Sunday.
Best case scenario – If the Crows win their match, they’ll finish on top of the ladder. If Greater Western Sydney lose to Geelong on Saturday night, they’ll finish top regardless.
Worst case scenario – The lowest the Crows can possibly fall is to second, and that’s hardly a bad result, so there’s little for them to worry about.
Ideally, they’d probably like to avoid playing either the Swans or Giants in Week 1, but they will have to play them sooner or later to win the flag.
2. GWS Giants
Fixture: versus Geelong Cats at Simonds Stadium, 7:25pm Saturday.
Best case scenario – The Giants can still finish on top of the ladder if they win, but only if the Crows lose to West Coast on Sunday.
More likely, GWS can secure a home preliminary final in second with a win, or even a draw.
Worst case scenario – If the Giants lose then that will mean Geelong are winners, and will certainly leapfrog them into second place.
GWS then finish either third or fourth, depending on whether or not Richmond win (and if they do, whether or not they overtake them on percentage, which they likely would).
Neither would be appealing as either way it would mean starting the finals with a trip interstate.
3. Geelong Cats
Fixture: versus GWS Giants at Simonds Stadium, 7:25pm Saturday.
Best case scenario – Geelong can guarantee a second-place finish and a home qualifying final to start the series with a win.
They can’t rise any higher than second, even if Adelaide lose – unless they win by 400-ish points.
Worst case scenario – If the Cats lose then they’ll finish either third or fourth, depending on the results of other games, and will certainly have to travel in the first week of finals.
They’ll be third if Richmond lose to St Kilda on Sunday, fourth if the Tigers win.
4. Richmond Tigers
Fixture: versus St Kilda Saints at the MCG, 3:20pm Sunday.
Best case scenario – A win will guarantee a top four finish and likely see the Tigers rise to third, regardless of which of Geelong or GWS wins on Saturday.
If Geelong lose, then Richmond would certainly overtake them on points alone, while if the Giants lose, the Tigers most likely overtake them on percentage unless both games have close-ish margins.
They could still finish fourth if they lose but only if Port Adelaide (against Gold Coast) and Sydney (against Carlton) also lose.
Worst case scenario – If the Tigers lose, then they will likely sink to sixth, as both Port Adelaide and Sydney would be likely to win, draw level with them on points, and overtake them on percentage. So long as at least one does, they fall out of the top four.
That would leave them playing an elimination final in the first week. It would be a home final, but since it’s likely to be against Melbourne or Essendon, that wouldn’t be any significant advantage.
5. Port Adelaide Power
Fixture: versus Gold Coast Suns at Adelaide Oval, 7:40pm Saturday.
Best case scenario – The ideal result for Port would be a qualifying final against Adelaide as it would mean they don’t have to travel in the first week of finals.
They can achieve this if both they and Adelaide win (or Adelaide and GWS both lose), Richmond lose, and Sydney either lose or don’t win by enough to overtake them on percentage.
Worst case scenario – If Richmond win then Port won’t be able to finish in the top four, regardless of their result. They could also miss out even if Richmond lose and they win, if Sydney also win and overtake them on percentage.
The good news is that they can’t realistically be overtaken by Melbourne (unless they win by 350ish points), so they would still have a home elimination final no matter how badly things go.
6. Sydney Swans
Fixture: versus Carlton Blues at the SCG, 4:35pm Saturday.
Best case scenario – The Swans can still crack into the top four if Richmond lose, and Port Adelaide either lose or the Swans win by enough to overtake them on percentage.
If Sydney do finish top four, then the ideal scenario would be for GWS to win on Saturday night and Adelaide lose on Sunday, as it would mean the Giants finish top and the Swans play them in Sydney in the first week of finals.
Worst case scenario – Ditto Port Adelaide. If the Swans lose, or if they win but Richmond win, or they win and Richmond lose but Port Adelaide win and have a better percentage, they finish fifth or sixth and have a home elimination final in the first week.
7. Melbourne Demons
Fixture: versus Collingwood Magpies at the MCG, 1:45pm Saturday.
Best case scenario – Melbourne can’t much improve their current lot, as they are no realistic chance of finishing higher than seventh, but they can guarantee that position with a win.
The ideal result would be for them to win and finish seventh, then for Richmond to lose while Port Adelaide and Sydney win, seeing Richmond finish sixth and Melbourne play them in an MCG final.
Even if they lose, they would still likely play finals, unless…
Worst case scenario – If Melbourne lose then they risk having any two of Essendon, West Coast, St Kilda or the Western Bulldogs overtake them.
Essendon would certainly go ahead, assuming they beat Fremantle on Sunday. West Coast would as well, but only if they can beat Adelaide.
St Kilda (versus Richmond) and the Bulldogs (versus Hawthorn) would both be long shots, requiring either those teams to win heavily or Melbourne to lose heavily.
8. Essendon Bombers
Fixture: versus Fremantle Dockers at Etihad Stadium, 1:10pm Sunday.
Best case scenario – The Bombers almost certainly guarantee finals qualification if they win over Fremantle on Sunday. They could theoretically rise to seventh if Melbourne lose to Collingwood, but no higher.
Whether they are seventh or eighth, their dream finals matchup would be for Richmond to slip into fifth or sixth – whichever corresponds with the Bombers’ finish – and play them in an MCG final.
Worst case scenario – If Essendon lose, then all West Coast, St Kilda or the Bulldogs need to do is win their respective games and the Bombers will miss finals.
If all of Melbourne, Essendon and West Coast were to win, then West Coast could theoretically overtake them if they win by a large margin and beat them on percentage – unlikely, given the Bombers have the far softer of the two matchups.
9. West Coast Eagles
Fixture: versus Adelaide Crows at Domain Stadium, 4:40pm Sunday.
Best case scenario – If either Melbourne or Essendon drops the ball, then West Coast can certainly make finals.
If both win, then the Eagles’ only hope would be to beat Adelaide by a significant enough margin to overtake Essendon on percentage, which is unlikely.
Theoretically, they could make finals if they have a close loss to the Crows, while the Bulldogs and Saints also lose, and Essendon are heavily beaten by Fremantle.
Worst case scenario – A loss against the Crows almost certainly ends their season unless the very unlikely scenario above occurs.
10. St Kilda Saints
Fixture: versus Richmond Tigers at the MCG, 3:20pm Sunday.
Best case scenario – To start with, the Saints absolutely must beat Richmond on Sunday. They also need both Essendon and West Coast to lose their respective matches, and the Bulldogs to either lose, or win but not by enough to overtake them on percentage.
If all that happens, they’ll sneak into eighth.
Worst case scenario – If Essendon or West Coast win their match (likely Essendon against Fremantle), or the Saints lose theirs, then there’s no realistic scenario by which they make finals.
Here’s the very unrealistic scenario, for fun – St Kilda lose, but so do all of Essendon, West Coast and the Bulldogs, and Essendon and West Coast both lose by at least 100 points.
11. Western Bulldogs
Fixture: versus Hawthorn Hawks at Etihad Stadium, 7:50pm Friday.
Best case scenario – To start with, the Dogs must win on Friday night. They then need Essendon and West Coast to both lose, and St Kilda to either lose or, if they Saints win, the Dogs must win by enough to overtake them on percentage.
The Dogs will slide into eighth if all that happens.
Worst case scenario – Essendon or West Coast win, or St Kilda win and the Dogs can’t beat their percentage, or the Dogs lose – they miss finals if any of these happen.
Like the Saints, there is a purely mathematical scenario available where they lose but so do all of their competitors, and in horrible enough fashion to completely tank their percentages and push the Bulldogs to eighth.
The spoon comes entirely down to just one fixture: Brisbane Lions vs North Melbourne Kangaroos at the Gabba, 2:10pm Saturday.
If Brisbane win
If Brisbane win by any margin, they overtake North Melbourne into 17th, and the Kangas get the spoon.
The Lions could mathematically overtake Gold Coast or Carlton on percentage if those clubs lose and Brisbane cane North by at least 250 points or so.
If North win
If the Roos win, then the Lions stay in 18th and receive the wooden spoon.
North would certainly overtake both Carlton and Gold Coast on the ladder due to percentage if those clubs lose, so could still finish as high as fifteenth.
If it’s a draw
North Melbourne, due to their superior percentage, would remain in 17th, but wouldn’t overtake either Carlton or Gold Coast.
Brisbane would remain in 18th and get the spoon.
Qualifying final 1: Adelaide Crows vs GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval
Qualifying final 2: Geelong Cats vs Richmond Tigers at the MCG
Elimination final 1: Sydney Swans vs Essendon Bombers at the SCG
Elimination final 2: Port Adelaide Power vs Melbourne Demons at Adelaide Oval