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Still standing: Each side’s likely ladder finish

23rd August, 2017
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Jahrome Hughes of the Storm celebrates. (AAP Image/Joe Castro)
Expert
23rd August, 2017
63
3073 Reads

This is it folks. We are now just three weeks away from the finals. What is most amazing is that, out of the ten clubs who may still take part in the finals, only one side – Melbourne Storm – knows where they will finish.

Courtesy of their extraordinary season they are guaranteed first place on the ladder and a home final for the first two they play.

Every other team is yet to lock in their fate.

Here is each team’s equation going into the final two rounds.

The Broncos
Best Possible Finish: 2nd
What needs to occur: Beat Eels (H), Beat Cowboys (a)

David Mead Brisbane Broncos NRL Rugby League 2017

Worst possible finish: 4th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Eels (H), Lose to Cowboys (A)
• Roosters beat Sharks (a), Roosters beat Titans (h)
• Eels beat Broncos (a), Eels beat Rabbitohs (h)

This is unlikely as the Broncos are likely to win at least one of their last two games and their for and against is over 100 points to the good of the Roosters, the Sharks and the Eels.
The Broncos could come third if they only win one of their remaining games and the Roosters win both of theirs.

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Likely finish: 2nd

The Roosters
Best Possible Finish: 2nd
What needs to occur:
• Beat Sharks (a), Beat Titans (h)
• Broncos lose one of Eels (H), Cowboys (a)

There is a 25 per cent chance of this happening and it will be this weekend we’ll find out. The major hurdle for the Roosters is beating the Sharks, and their best chance of the Broncos losing is this weekend against the Eels.

Worst possible finish: 6th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Sharks (a), Lose to Titans (h)
• Sharks beat Roosters (h), Knights (a)
• Eels beat Broncos (a), Rabbitohs (h)
• Panthers beat Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (a)

This is highly unlikely. I can’t see the Roosters losing to the Titans at home. I reckon the Roosters might lose to the Sharks though.

Likely finish: 4th – on points differential behind the Sharks. Both the Sharks and Roosters last round matches are likely to be very attacking affairs as both sides try to build up their +/- in a big way.

The Sharks
Best Possible Finish: 2nd
What needs to occur:
• Beat Roosters (h), Beat Knights (a)
• Broncos lose to Eels (H), Cowboys (a)
• Roosters lose to Sharks (a), Titans (h)

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There is only a 10 per cent chance of this happening I cannot see the Cowboys beating the Broncos and I certainly can’t see the Titans beating the Roosters in Sydney.

Worst possible finish:
7th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Roosters (h), Lose to Knights (a)
• Broncos lose to Eels (H), Cowboys (a)
• Eels beat Broncos (a), Rabbitohs (h)
• Panthers beat Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (a)
• Cowboys beat Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)

If this happens I’ll be amazed. Less than 1 per cent chance. The Cowboys may beat the Wests Tigers but I highly doubt they’ll beat the Broncos. The Eels will probably beat the Rabbitohs but I just don’t think they have the troops to better the Broncos in Brisbane.

Likely finish: 3rd – on points differential in front of the Roosters. Again, the Sharks’ last-round match in Newcastle and The Roosters last game against the Titans are likely to be points differential building try fests to establish who gets the coveted 3rd spot.

The Eels
Best Possible Finish: 2nd
What needs to occur:
• Beat Broncos (a), Rabbitohs (h)
• Broncos lose to Eels (H), Cowboys (a)
• Roosters lose to Sharks (a), Titans (h)
• Sharks beat Roosters (h), lose to Knights (a)

Only Raiders supporters are daring to dream this big right now. It would take divine intervention for this to occur. The chances of either the Roosters or Sharks losing their last round games are spectacularly low. For both to lose is the stuff of fantasy.

Worst possible finish: 8th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Broncos (a), Rabbitohs (h)
• Broncos lose to Cowboys (a)
• Panthers beat Dragons (h), Lose to Sea Eagles (a)
• Cowboys beat Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)
• Sea Eagles beat Warriors (a), beat Panthers (h)

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The only result here that I’d be surprised about would be the Cowboys beating the Broncos in Townsville in the final round. However, that could happen. The good news for long suffering Eels fans is that they can’t miss the finals.

Likely finish: 5th – I reckon the Eels will lose to the Broncos but beat the Rabbitohs to lock up 6th spot and a home final.

The Panthers
Best Possible Finish: 3rd
What needs to occur:
• Panthers beat Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (a)
• Sharks beat Roosters (h), lose to Knights (a)
• Broncos beat the Eels (H)
• Roosters lose to Sharks (a), Titans (h)

The Panthers’ gritty win away to the Raiders showed that they are a competitive side. However, once more there is a reliance in this equation for both the Sharks and Roosters to lose highly unlikely games in Round 26. It ain’t gonna happen.

Worst possible finish: 9th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (a)
• Sea Eagles beat Panthers (h)
• Cowboys beat one of Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)
• Dragons beat Panthers (a) and Bulldogs (h)

You aren’t home and hosed yet Panthers! All of this could occur. The best thing for Anthony Griffin and his men is that they are the masters of their own destiny.

Nathan Cleary Penrith Panthers NRL Rugby League 2017

(Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)

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Likely finish: 7th – I reckon the Sea Eagles might wreak revenge on the Panthers for the Panther Park robbery of Round 18. It’s not often you see a side hold the ball for nearly 5 extra minute for their opponent, with a 10 per cent better completion lose the game.

However, throw in a 14-4 penalty count against them and anything is possible! The Brooky crowd will be screaming for penalties all day long. And if history is a guide, they’ll get them!

Further, with no Matt Moylan this weekend I reckon the Dragons might pip the Panthers too. I reckon the Panthers will make it in on for and against.

The Cowboys
Best Possible Finish: 4th
What needs to occur:
• Beat Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)
• Sharks lose to Roosters (h), Knights (a)
• Eels lose to Broncos (a), Rabbitohs (h)
• Sea Eagles Lose to Warriors (a), Beat Panthers (h)
• Panthers lose to Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (a)

The most unlikely bit of this are the Sharks losing to the Knights and the Cowboys beating the Broncos. However, it’s not as far-fetched as one might have though. And the Cowboys may have been doing it tough of late due to injuries but they have never given up for one moment.

Worst possible finish: 10th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)
• Sea Eagles beat Panthers (h)
• Dragons beat Panthers (a) and Bulldogs (h)
• Raiders beat Knights (h), Storm (a)

All of this is very possible. The Cowboys could lose both remaining matches and the rest could fall into place quite easily.

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Likely finish: 9th – I reckon the Cowboys will beat the Wests Tigers this weekend but will lose to the Broncos in the final round, missing out on the Finals on four and against.

The Sea Eagles

Best Possible Finish: 5th
What needs to occur:
• Beat Warriors (a), Panthers (h)
• Cowboys lose to either Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)
• Panthers lose to Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (a)
• Eels lose to Broncos (a), Rabbitohs (h)

The bit where this gets far-fetched is the Eels beating the Broncos. Apart from that it is all quite possible. In fact the Eels have an OK record in Brisvegas too.

Worst possible finish: 10th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Warriors (a), Panthers (h)
• Dragons beat Panthers (a) and Bulldogs (h)
• Raiders beat Knights (h), Storm (a)
• Cowboys beat Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)

The Raiders beating the Storm in Melbourne in Round 26 is at very long odds, as is the Cowboys beating the Broncos.

Likely finish: 8th – I the Sea Eagles will go down to the Warriors this weekend. I feel it in my bones. However, I reckon they’ll bounce back the following week over the Panthers to scrape into the eight

The Dragons
Best Possible Finish: 6th
What needs to occur:
• Beat Panthers (a), Bulldogs (h)
• Sea Eagles to lose to Warriors (a), beat Panthers (h)
• Panthers to lose to Dragons (h), Sea Eagles (a)
• Cowboys to lose to either Wests Tigers (a) or Broncos (h)

I think all of this is going to happen. I think the Dragons will get a home final.

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Worst possible finish: 10th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Panthers (a), Bulldogs (h)
• Sea Eagles beat Warriors (a), lose to Panthers (h)
• Raiders beat Knights (h), Storm (a)
• Cowboys beat Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)

This could all conceivably happen, except maybe the Raiders winning in Round 26.

Likely finish: 6th – As I said above, I reckon that the Dragons are going to storm into the top eight and even get a home final.

Tariq Sims St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Rugby League 2017

The Raiders
Best Possible Finish: 7th
What needs to occur:
• Beat Knights (h), Storm (a)
• Sea Eagles lose to Warriors (a), Panthers (h)
• Cowboys to lose to Wests Tigers (a), Broncos (h)
• Dragons to lose to Panthers (a), beat Bulldogs (a)

The problem with this reasonable (say 25% likelihood) equation is that a) Matt Moylan is out for the Panthers and b) Elijah Taylor is out for the Wests Tigers this weekend.

Worst possible finish: 11th
What needs to occur:
• Lose to Knights (h), Storm (a)
• Rabbitohs beat Storm (a), Eels (a)

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This involves the Raiders completely dropping their bundle while the Rabbitohs pick theirs up. It is possible.

Likely finish: 10th – The Raiders will go into this Friday’s game against the Knights still clinging to slight hope that they can make the eight. That hope will be partially dashed when the Cowboys beat Wests Tigers later that night.

While the Warriors win on Sunday will slightly raise their spirits, the Dragons win over the Panthers will leave their season on life support. The Sea Eagles will beat the Panthers the following weekend to render the Raiders result against the Storm moot.

Eight losses by six points or less in 2017 has consigned them to this fate.

So this is what the final ladder should look like:

Team Wins Losses Points P/D
Storm 20 4 44 243
Broncos 17 7 38 208
Sharks $16 $8 $36 103
Roosters 16 8 36 86
Eels 15 9 34 15
Dragons 13 11 30 111
Panthers 13 11 30 39
Sea Eagles 13 11 30 23
Cowboys 13 11 30 20
Raiders 11 13 26 81
Rabbitohs 9 15 22 -72
Warriors 8 16 20 -116
Bulldogs 8 16 20 -137
Titans 8 16 20 -194
Wests Tigers 7 17 18 -162
Knights 5 19 14 -246

First weekend of the finals:
• Storm Vs Roosters, AAMI Park
• Dragons Vs Panthers, Allianz Stadium
• Broncos Vs Sharks, Suncorp Stadium
• Eels Vs Sea Eagles, Olympic Stadium

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