Okay efforts last week for the five bets, with Jukebox getting the job done in the Vain while the Weir double at Morphettville was pretty painless in the end. Here are the five bets for the weekend.
Bet One – Win – Morphettville Race Eight Number 2 Balf’s Choice
He’s heading towards the Balaklava Cup and he will take some beating there, but before then he runs here and he will continue the picket fence. He looked gone 600m out two weeks back over the 1550m but he kept finding under the urgings of Neilson to nab London Fog late and draw clear. See no reason to jump off.
Bet Two – Win – Moonee Valley Race Seven Number 10 Heatherly
Was amazed that this mare opened $3.30. Her current price is now a bit thin but her class gets her home. She had three runs for the Ellerton/Zahra camp in the Autumn, resuming in the Lightning when beaten two lengths by Terravista in a blanket finish before bolting up in the Hoysted. The mare then went to the Galaxy and she just couldn’t pick her feet up on the bog plus she was tardy away. Jump outs, as always, have been fantastic, and she did score a great win in this race last year. Just needs to jump cleanly.
Bet Three – Each Way – Gold Coast Race Three Number 6 Vallesco
The $15 opening price looked silly and he is now into around $8 which is his right price. Smart gelding for the Liam Birchley camp who was backed as if unbeatable when resuming over the 1000m at the Sunny Coast and D Browne gave him a peach, sitting off the pace before pouncing at the right and finishing best. He can go on with it here for sure despite more depth. Happy to have something on each way.
Bet Four – All Up Win – Rosehill Race One Number 3 Lifesaver/Race Four Number 4 Alward
Similar to the one last week. It’s around the $5 mark and both should bolt in. Lifesaver was enormous fresh and it took a potential Group horse to outgun him late. Should only improve off that, meets a weaker field… the even money looks luxurious. He is a $1.50 pop, perhaps shorter. Alward comes to Sydney after a spank job of his rivals at Flemington last time and this run will tell us if he is a Metrop/Cups horse.
Bet Five – Each Way – Rosehill Race Seven Number 11 Madeenaty
Took the $11 all in and she is now into around $7, which is the right price given the way the race shape is. Resumed down the Flemington straight three weeks ago and was ridden a treat by Brandon Stockdale, but her condition just gave way when gathered in by Crown Witness, who of course franked the form in the Quezette, and the third horse ran well at Pakenham. Should lead comfortably and does drop 3kg from last time. She’ll take some beating.
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